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Dare We Hope Youngkin Might Actually Win?
Watching Virginia election results is depressing for conservatives. The more rural parts of the states roll in first, showing a close race in any presidential or statewide contest. Then, in come the results from northern VA and the Democrat wins in a blowout.
So I’ve tried to temper my enthusiasm for Glenn Youngkin. Yes, he’s run an exceptionally good campaign while his sleazy opponent, Terry McAuliffe, has been abysmal. But still…
Polls released Thursday afternoon indicate a tipping point for the Old Dominion.
🚨 Oh my 🚨
đź‘€ New Fox poll of #VAGov (likely voters):
Youngkin (R) 53
McAuliffe (D) 45Youngkin also leads among RV’s by 1 point. MoE +/- 3 points. Massive shift from the last poll in this series, which had McAuliffe up five points. Election is Tuesday.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 28, 2021
BREAKING: Glenn Youngkin up 4 points over Terry McAuliffe in co/efficient pollhttps://t.co/t2jieZc1xC #VAgov
— Matt Wolking (@MattWolking) October 28, 2021
Partisans on Twitter will be quick to say, “yeah, well, it’s a Fox News poll,” but that’s uninformed. The most recent Fox polls had McAuliffe up by 5 points (10/10 – 10/13) and 4 points (9/26 – 9/29).
Since these new polls just dropped, they haven’t been added to the RealClearPolitics average, which has McAuliffe up by 0.8 percent. The average is calculated using the six most recent polls.
I’m not sure if RCP counts co/efficient (I’ve never heard of them), but they do include Fox News. By my calculations, if they only count Fox, Youngkin will lead by 0.5 percentage points. If they count both of today’s polls, the best McAuliffe number drops out, and Youngkin will lead by 1.7.
I refuse to count my chickens, but I’ve got my calculator handy.
Update: RealClearPolitics just updated their average to include the Fox News poll. Youngkin is up by 0.4. Also, after doing some research, the co/efficient poll was conducted by the Youngkin campaign so it will not be counted. Here’s the RCP average over the last two weeks.
Published in General
Please provide a citation for your allegation. I don’t recall ever condemning folks for seeking Court review before an election. Â
You signed off on every dismissal. No gaslighting now.
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Young VA Democrats and the McAuliffe campaign is responsible.
Bryan you missed my point. The time for lawsuits is before the election. If memory serves, I don’t have any problem with lawsuits before the election. My problem is with the sore grapes after the elections.
I think that the public schools issue is real and broadly national after the behavior of the AFT and NEA during COVID. There will be further meaningful progress on vouchers and school funding following the students, rather than districts, because the suburban professional class has been directly affected and finally admitted the rot in the system. We have already made progress in this area with the SCOTUS decisions in favor of vouchers and against mandatory union membership even before the issue affected the suburban professional class. Now when the Dems try to play the anti-choice game it will just remind people of why they disagree, sort of like gun confiscation has been an issue that damages Dems every time they bring it up.Â
That’s because every dismissal followed the rules of, you know, evidence; find me a dump truck full of provably false ballots and I’ll sign on. But you can’t throw out an election based on a couple of affidavits The real issue was not massive scale criminal activity, it was the rules and election procedures control of the Left as described by Mollie Hemingway. And we need to get that stuyff fixed now before every state turns into Tammany or Cook County machine politics.
Except the changes to rules in PA were challenged b4 the election.
I agree with you that the Supreme Court should have taken the PA case up.
MSNBC was fairly upset when it said that they had discovered a new type of voter in Suburban Virginia, the “Biden-Youngkin” voter. I am not surprised. Youngkin has coaxed members of the GOP back into the fold, by not embracing Trump. Yes, Youngkin has accepted Trump’s endorsement, however my google search for “Pictures of Trump and Youngkin together” found no examples of the two of them in the same picture. Â
Maybe state parties and primary voters have a clue what they are doing? I’m sure states like Virginia and Maryland have many conservatives, but not enough to elect a rock-ribbed small government type to statewide office. Just as a Democrat can win an election in Texas or Arizona, but they are going to be of the watered-down variety, not a full-strength AOC, Pelosi, or Bernie Sanders variant.
The problem is that if you sue before the election you end up in a legal paradox. No harm has been committed and thus no remedy can be ordered. If you sue after the election – its just sour grapes and the people have spoken. In either case the courts lack the guts to stop election fraud.
I prefer realism. It’s the same old game where conservatives are encouraged to mistake avoiding a catastrophic political defeat with a victory for conservatism. McAuliffe has publicly said that parents should not have a say in the public education of their children. Virginia is forcing the most extreme forms of CRT and transgenderism down the throats of children. That’s too much (for now) for even bluish Virginia. So the voters may very well reject McAuliffe for that reason. Were he to win, it would be a catastrophic defeat for conservatives because it will validate electorally the far left. So we should all hope that Youngkin wins. But if he does, it merely slows down the progressive steamroller a bit, it doesn’t change the direction. Youngkin won’t be pushing to rollback any progressive initiatives, just stymying (for now) the most extreme ones.Â
True hope has to be based on a realistic assessment of the situation. The Republican Party loves to encourage us to mistake Republican victories for conservative victories. They get to stay in power and they neuter any real conservative alternative to the left that would challenge their hegemony on the right. So we get Republican victories and yet somehow the country goes further and further left. I’m all for avoiding catastrophic defeats. I just won’t call them victories.
This
Well a realistic assessment of the situation is that a Youngkin and Republican victory is far, far better than a McAuliffe and Democrat victory. It signifies that Democrats in VA went way too far left and parents aren’t having it. That is a victory for conservatism and it gives me hope. The war against leftism is fought one battle at a time.
I agree a Youngkin win is preferable. And I agree that such an outcome would prove that Democrats in VA went way too far – for now. Just as the left went way too far with same sex marriage at one point, and conservatives won some “victories” in referendums on that subject. Today, same sex marriage is accepted by all, including Republican politicians. How did that happen?
Part of it was conservatives thinking they were winning by managing to thwart the latest leftist initiative. What they don’t realize is that the left is always on offense and the right always on defense, so that the worst outcome for the left is that they don’t lose any ground. They’ll take any number of those sort of conservative “victories”. Â They know the occasional leftist win is all they need to keep the revolution going.
So when conservatives congratulate themselves on merely being able to maintain the status quo, rather than acknowledging that such an outcome is merely a draw, not a win, they play right into the left’s hands. And one day, conservatives will wonder how it is that the left’s grip on education has become total, when they thought they had themselves won a series of “victories.”
I sure wish this was quoting the right person. That bug gets old.Â
I’m not sure it’s a bug so much as user error. If you want to capture the quote correctly, you have to go back to the original comment, not quote the person who quoted the original comment.Â
Because same sex marriage was always acceptable to most people. I don’t put it in the same category as what is happening now.
Well we will have to disagree about that. In 1980, 1990, or 2000, same sex marriage was not acceptable to most people. In 1980, they would have thought you insane to think it even a possibility. Barack Obama was against same sex marriage in 2008. By 2012, he had “changed is mind” and by 2015 conservatives knew they had lost comprehensively. So comprehensively, that now people can’t remember a time when everyone wasn’t for it. That’s what a victory looks like.
Ah. That’s why it lost in every referendum. It took the courts to impose it.
SSM lost in California, for God’s sake.
That was before insanity took hold. No sane person believes two men or two women can be married. It’s absurd, and we should say so.
It would probably lose today. Neither Blacks nor Hispanics favor it.
Many things were not acceptable. I just don’t think gay marriage indicates some kind of inevitable slippery slope where we will end up accepting the State’s total control of our children or that Youngkin will just go with the flow once he’s elected. That is being unrealistically pessimistic in my view. If he loses, you have a point. If he loses, many will assume that everything is rigged and there is no point in voting. Then you can kiss the USA goodbye. So please hope Youngkin wins and try to rejoice a little if he does.
It lost in the privacy of voting booths but just about everybody would say they didn’t have a problem with it if asked in person. Most people didn’t care one way or another.
Say what?
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If they didn’t care one way or the other, why did they vote against it?
What you mean is that people were afraid to give their real opinions in public, because of the possibility of backlash, but when they were free to choose in secrecy, they voted against it. You know, that’s why we have secret ballots.
Actually, I said the very same thing about Trump. I doubted he was actually a Republican at all.
I was wrong.
The odds may be poor, but it is not impossible that a RINO surprises us.
Dare! Dare!Â
I would bet that most were like me- opposed to SSM, but in favor of legal partnerships that allowed any two adult persons to have a simple legal agreement that addresses survivorship, guardianship in the event of incapacity, etc. But, as with many issues, once the ink is dry on the decision it is hard to reverse, especially when there are new assaults on what used to be ordinary life that must be fought. There is simply not enough time or energy to stop every freight train; we need to pick our battles.Â