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Dare We Hope Youngkin Might Actually Win?
Watching Virginia election results is depressing for conservatives. The more rural parts of the states roll in first, showing a close race in any presidential or statewide contest. Then, in come the results from northern VA and the Democrat wins in a blowout.
So I’ve tried to temper my enthusiasm for Glenn Youngkin. Yes, he’s run an exceptionally good campaign while his sleazy opponent, Terry McAuliffe, has been abysmal. But still…
Polls released Thursday afternoon indicate a tipping point for the Old Dominion.
🚨 Oh my 🚨
đź‘€ New Fox poll of #VAGov (likely voters):
Youngkin (R) 53
McAuliffe (D) 45Youngkin also leads among RV’s by 1 point. MoE +/- 3 points. Massive shift from the last poll in this series, which had McAuliffe up five points. Election is Tuesday.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 28, 2021
BREAKING: Glenn Youngkin up 4 points over Terry McAuliffe in co/efficient pollhttps://t.co/t2jieZc1xC #VAgov
— Matt Wolking (@MattWolking) October 28, 2021
Partisans on Twitter will be quick to say, “yeah, well, it’s a Fox News poll,” but that’s uninformed. The most recent Fox polls had McAuliffe up by 5 points (10/10 – 10/13) and 4 points (9/26 – 9/29).
Since these new polls just dropped, they haven’t been added to the RealClearPolitics average, which has McAuliffe up by 0.8 percent. The average is calculated using the six most recent polls.
I’m not sure if RCP counts co/efficient (I’ve never heard of them), but they do include Fox News. By my calculations, if they only count Fox, Youngkin will lead by 0.5 percentage points. If they count both of today’s polls, the best McAuliffe number drops out, and Youngkin will lead by 1.7.
I refuse to count my chickens, but I’ve got my calculator handy.
Update: RealClearPolitics just updated their average to include the Fox News poll. Youngkin is up by 0.4. Also, after doing some research, the co/efficient poll was conducted by the Youngkin campaign so it will not be counted. Here’s the RCP average over the last two weeks.
I think we need to stop wimping out on this call. Call it a win! So what if he doesn’t? He’s earned it and he’d should know that we’re all behind him!
Virginia and Republican hopes….
They will steal it.Â
There is more than enough evidence that Democrats worked hard, and may well have stolen 2020 Election. If it is close, they will steal it.
The key is what happens in the DC Annex (Northern Virginia). If it’s a heavy turnout there it will be very difficult for Youngkin to win. But I think this is much closer than anyone anticipated given Virginia trends in recent years.
I hope that Youngkin wins. He has done a great job in dealing with Trump and keeping his distance from Trump. Youngkin was not endorsed by Trump before he was selected by the party convention, but was endorsed afterwards. (What? Did you really think that Trump would endorse Hillary’s close associate Terry McAuliffe?)
If Youngkin wins, he will point the way for Republicans to handle the Trump endorsement “kiss of death.” Goldwater and Reagan were endorsed by the John Birch Society. They pointed out their acceptance of that endorsement did not mean that they agreed with all of the positions of the John Birch Society.
I think that an endorsement by Trump before a contested primary would be harmful in the general election. But Trump did not endorse Youngkin until after he was nominated.
Hijack away!
Oh Bryan! Apparently you have not noticed that McAuliffe has been trying to tie Trump around Youngkin’s neck. I have. Youngkin has been very artful in dodging McAuliffe’s attempted guilt by association. Hopefully other Republicans will follow his example.
No. Next question?
Youngkin will win, and do nothing substantive to rollback the progressive revolution. The left will learn that it is still too early to publicly proclaim goals like excluding parents from public education. They will continue to infiltrate and undermine institutions. The bureaucracy will become evermore leftist and uncompromising. Then when Youngkin is eventually replaced, it will become clear that nothing really changed with his election. The next time the takeover of public education will be definitive and final.
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We will see what the margin of cheating is in Virginia. As Hugh Hewitt wrote in 2004: If It’s Not Close, They Can’t Cheat.
If the stories I’m reading out of D-districts are true of people being denied ballots in-person, because they requested a mail-in ballot (they didn’t), I don’t think Youngkin will get the chance to underperform. Dems have learned how to effectively steal elections. They don’t need to do it in rural (R) districts. It’s sufficient to do it in districts they control (see 2020).
Yeah, well, when the Dems need a win they get creative in acquiring votes (I live in Chicago and we’ve been laughing since the 60’s to this tune – “vote early, vote often” ha ha ha). If only they could make it legal for undocumented children under the age of 16 for mail in votes, then they’d be on to something, and of course anyone objecting to that hates children and the mailman (I guess).
Due to the status of the VA Senate, a win by Youngkin and a return to Republicans in the House of Delegates will not likely result in too much progressive rollback, since the Senate in whole was just seated two years ago and is +1 Democrat (best recollection). I think this may actually play in favor of Youngkin as those Dems or independents who want to make a statement to Terry, know that a Youngkin win won’t result in too much swing until at least 2023 unless someone dies, gets prosecuted, or a couple Dems see that they are generally unpopular and are willing to give up a little red meat.
(*The full legislature was elected in 2019, so only the House of Delegates is up for election in 2021. Note that in 2019 the Republicans left 25% of all legislative spots uncontested and the Democrats still only grabbed hold of both houses by a small margin.)
There’s a warehouse full of “mail-in ballots” in Fairfax county that says no. Not that it matters. Youngkin is no Ron DeSantis. He’s not even a Scott Walker. He’s closer to a Larry Hogan, or a Charlie Baker. I think Hogan’s sole “conservative accomplishment” in Maryland is reducing a bridge toll. As for Charlie Baker, there is nothing he’s done in Massachusetts that a Democrat governor wouldn’t have done. Republican governors in coastal blue states don’t really make any difference.
Oh, they can still cheat. It just may not be enough.
They are already cheating. Look for a repeat of the last election… Youngkin leads until somehow there is a flood of D votes that turn the tide.
I don’t dispute the election might be stolen. My point is that even if Youngkin is elected, it’s not likely to make much difference in the long run anyway.Â
On the other hand, if Youngkin wins, Bill Kristol will be very, very sad. And that would be nice.Â
Wow. Talk about crushing morosity. I prefer to be at least a little optimistic.
I’m sitting here in Prince William County, VA and hoping for a Youngkin win. I think it will make a difference for my state. We just had years of a rapist and a racist and I got a $950 property tax bill for my 2020 F-150. Inflation is rampant and the schools are a mess. People are not happy.Â
Regardless of whether Youngkin pulls it off, there is a lesson here. This was not a competitive race until it became about the culture wars, specifically about the Democrat mistreatment of concerned parents and the outrageous things they want to teach children. If done right it is a powerful tool – this is not about conservativism or the GOP, it’s about your children and your rights as a parent; if approached that way there are a lot of allies. The parents in Loudon and Fairfax counties who first went public with this issue a year ago are, for the most part, not Republican or conservative. But they are now supporting Youngkin.
It’s also a repudiation of the GOP consultant class which always advises to avoid cultural issues and focus on business and free market rhetoric.
If you have evidence turn it over to the RNC and the police. Do it now before the election.
Amen!!
McAuliffe sending campaign volunteers to dress up in MAGA hats and hold tiki torches at Youngkin campaign events.
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Yes, that was the strategy Steve Schmidt advocated for John McCain in 2008 and Matt Rhoades advocated for Mitt Romney in 2012. Schmidt, of course, went on to found the NAMB-Lincoln Project and Rhoades went into business with Hillary’s 2016 campaign manager.Â
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I’m cautiously optimistic. I think the turn around is for real but it’s four days until the polls close. The parent schooling issue is a winner and the right needs to go national with it.
The Lincoln Project Claimed responsibility. Sort of like when terrorist groups claim responsibility for a bombing, who knows who is really responsible.Â
Why do you care? You don’t belive in voter fraud!
There has always been a degree of voter fraud. If you are aware of voter fraud, the time to act is immediately, which is almost always before the election.
Yet when people tried, you cheered their defeat.Â
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