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Place your bets: Will newly maskless (i.e. “Neanderthal”) states like Texas and Mississippi experience a surge in COVID-19 cases? Or will cases continue to decline into summer just like the rest of the country and the world? The real problem is that Texas, Mississippi, and Florida jeopardize the establishment plan (a) to take credit for ending the pandemic when it recedes largely on its own, chased by the vaccinations while (b) simultaneously asserting eternal authority such that “normal” activity can only be done from now on subject to revocable permission depending on the discovery/invention of new dangers. If cases in Texas and Mississippi don’t surge, it could threaten the plan.
We can’t drop the fear narrative too early. Saint Anthony Fauci increases the threshold for herd immunity every week–a clear indication that he is not ready to relinquish his role or inadvertently help Neanderthals roll back any newly invented governmental powers. He has gone from 60-70% to 80-90% as the threshold. If you graph it, and project forward, at this rate he will define herd immunity as a minimum of 106.5% sometime in May.
Experts were allegedly surprised last month that SARs-Cov-2/COVID 19/WuFlu case counts dropped in India. Similarly, the failure of Floridians to die in larger numbers has continued to stump top journalists. And stumping himself, renowned expert Dr. Osterholm (author of Minnesota’s COVID-19 response and top Biden WuFlu adviser) predicted a sustained 6-14 week surge in cases at the same moment the rate of new infections in Minnesota was actually declining and about two weeks before infection incidence peaked across the entire upper midwestern US.
In stark contrast, your post author modestly points out (witnesses can be produced who will confirm) that I correctly predicted two weeks and three weeks in advance the COVID case peak day in a dozen US states each prediction correct within 24-48 hours. That is because, apparently unlike leading” experts,” I believe in science, epidemiology, and math but mostly because I can read a graph. Apparently, most journalists and their favorite experts start with the assumption that this disease should increases unchecked and any declines can only be attributable to NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) implemented by enlightened governments. Hence, their constant surprise and bafflement in response to actual trends and events.
Here are some facts to help you decide whether to reach out to Las Vegas and/or your favorite UK bookmakers if they open the books for COVID counts in dissident jurisdictions:
- Contrary to “experts” last spring, COVID-19 did do its thing in Gompertz-like curves like every other respiratory epidemic. That means, the numbers initially take off but the rate of increase soon declines because the bug runs out of prime hosts\clusters and optimal conditions. This has resulted in curves that strongly tend to have similar slopes on either side of the peak. This is true in part because:
- COVID-19 is seasonal See this and also this. Factors like sunlight, temperature, humidity, and even seasonal changes in human behavior and biochemistry strongly influence optimal conditions for the spread which in turn helps to explain why:
- COVID-19 has distinctive regional patterns. NY, NJ and MA had identical curves and all first peaked exactly on April 27. MD, PA, DE and VA peaked at the same time about two weeks later and have shared with nearly identical curves throughout. The whole southern tier of the US and Mexico all shared a peak period at the end of July and beginning of August with similar, lower, flatter case curves than those in the northeast US states in March and April. The central US regional groupings had common peaks in mid-November or early December.
- COVID-19 has probably infected more than half of the US population by now (29 million reported positives multiplied by six at the low end of CDC estimates of actual infections) and like other COVID variants, that boosts long-lasting T-cell resistance.
- Every state in the US has had waves in either the spring/summer and/or during normal flu season. Texas and Mississippi both first peaked in mid to late July. So, when these same optimal seasonal conditions for those two states roll around again in 3-4 months, more than half of their populations will have newly acquired T and B-cell immunity in addition to specific antibodies plus the number vaccinated by then. COVID has no shot at an encore.
- Contrary to claims and wishes of ardent mask-mandate defenders, there is no jurisdiction in the United States in which one can point to the graphs of case incidence and mask use/mandate implementation and find a correlation reflected in the case numbers. I have been told that masks work but even if in wide use that we should not expect that benefit to show up in the actual aggregate numbers of infections (a position that does not sound very mathy or sciency somehow). Therefore, lifting such a mandate should not be expected to influence case numbers either.
So, my bet is that (a) Texas and Mississippi will not experience a resurgence of COVID and certainly not anywhere near the rates at the same times as last year and (b) the reported infection incidence rate will be vanishingly small and the same as the other states in their same COVID regional pattern (GA and FL across to AZ and CA).
Now to the next bet: What will be the exact date on which the Biden Administration will claim all credit and declare victory over ending COVID-19?
[ My earlier take on Fauci/Cuomo taking credit: ]Published in