Inflation: This Time It Really Is Different

 

Both political parties have managed to dodge the bullet. Government deficit spending, borrowing, and money creation by the Fed have gone relentlessly up with no repercussions in either inflation or interest rates. In fact, those skyrocketing deficits and money creation have been rewarded with little inflation and historically low-interest rates. Lefties have even concocted Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a formalized economic theory that says that the US can create all the money it wants with impunity. Feel free to spend away!

But interest rates have recently increased (dragging down the stock market) and I’m afraid that’s just the beginning. This article from AIER makes a convincing argument that the chickens have finally come home to roost.

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  1. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Steve Bannon put it well in a Frontline interview. Unlimited immigration is good because it swamps the workforce with cheap labor which helps a corporation’s margin, though this decreases earning power of the existing population. Free trade and using foreign work forces work well because this provides cheap overseas labor which is good for their margin, though it decreases the earning power of the existing population. Populism doesn’t work well for the corporations because it raises the earning power of the existing population.

    An important distinction.

    I think, if Schwab is right, that corporations will ultimately control subsidiary governments, which will not be sovereign states.

    Given a choice, corporatist rule seems likely to be less onerous than ideological rule, especially if the ideology comes from either CCP or Sharia.

    Yes, that’s possible.  But also corporations are purely profit driven.  There is no profit in paying a person, say, $1,000 a month to buy $1,000 of food, rent and entertainment.  In fact there are administration costs that would make it a net loss.  Why would corporations submit to these costs?  In other words, what good is a population of 8 or 9 billion if they don’t produce anything for the corporation and only have to be subsidized?

    • #61
  2. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Steve Bannon put it well in a Frontline interview. Unlimited immigration is good because it swamps the workforce with cheap labor which helps a corporation’s margin, though this decreases earning power of the existing population. Free trade and using foreign work forces work well because this provides cheap overseas labor which is good for their margin, though it decreases the earning power of the existing population. Populism doesn’t work well for the corporations because it raises the earning power of the existing population.

    An important distinction.

    I think, if Schwab is right, that corporations will ultimately control subsidiary governments, which will not be sovereign states.

    Given a choice, corporatist rule seems likely to be less onerous than ideological rule, especially if the ideology comes from either CCP or Sharia.

    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven. There is no profit in paying a person, say, $1,000 a month to buy $1,000 of food, rent and entertainment. In fact there are administration costs that would make it a net loss. Why would corporations submit to these costs? In other words, what good is a population of 8 or 9 billion if they don’t produce anything for the corporation and only have to be subsidized?

    But if there aren’t people – maybe even 8 or 9 billion or more – why does anything need to be produced?

    It’s an interesting conundrum.  Mack Reynolds wrote many of his stories involving a similar situation.  And in another situation I mentioned a sci-fi story I’d read where basically all manufacturing/production had been automated and the only thing people existed for was to use up/wear out the stuff that had been produced.

    Maybe it’s all about power/control.  If there are no people to oligarch, then the oligarchs are pointless too.

    • #62
  3. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Yes, 3% or so is considered standard or healthy. But that $100 savings bond I got as a kid is worth $5 today. Where did all this value go?

    It’s been transferred from savers to borrowers.   Why?   Because the government is the biggest borrower of them all, and they’ve skewed the system in their favor.

    • #63
  4. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven

    Are we still sure of that today?    Lots of corporations seem willing to turn their backs on 75 million potential customers based on political posture.

    • #64
  5. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Yes, 3% or so is considered standard or healthy. But that $100 savings bond I got as a kid is worth $5 today. Where did all this value go?

    It’s been transferred from savers to borrowers. Why? Because the government is the biggest borrower of them all, and they’ve skewed the system in their favor.

    Exactly. It’s a stupid system they try to equalize with redistribution. 

    I’m pretty sure the basis of it is you can’t be militaristic on a deflationary standard. Then it gets complicated from there.

    Government Is How We Steal From Each Other™

    The Government Is Running Out Of Money™

    Everything Moves Towards Communism All Of The Time™

     

    • #65
  6. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven

    Are we still sure of that today? Lots of corporations seem willing to turn their backs on 75 million potential customers based on political posture.

    Not only that, corporations like Amazon can buy a competitor ***WITH DEBT***and then their stock goes up. Also, management and the board ultimately only cares about buybacks that make options pay. This is all because of low interest rates and bad government policy. I tried to explain this to people and nobody gets it. There is a lawyer on one of the podcasts that hates my guts, she can’t stand that I’m right about this.

    • #66
  7. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Steve Bannon put it well in a Frontline interview. Unlimited immigration is good because it swamps the workforce with cheap labor which helps a corporation’s margin, though this decreases earning power of the existing population. Free trade and using foreign work forces work well because this provides cheap overseas labor which is good for their margin, though it decreases the earning power of the existing population. Populism doesn’t work well for the corporations because it raises the earning power of the existing population.

    An important distinction.

    I think, if Schwab is right, that corporations will ultimately control subsidiary governments, which will not be sovereign states.

    Given a choice, corporatist rule seems likely to be less onerous than ideological rule, especially if the ideology comes from either CCP or Sharia.

    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven. There is no profit in paying a person, say, $1,000 a month to buy $1,000 of food, rent and entertainment. In fact there are administration costs that would make it a net loss. Why would corporations submit to these costs? In other words, what good is a population of 8 or 9 billion if they don’t produce anything for the corporation and only have to be subsidized?

    But if there aren’t people – maybe even 8 or 9 billion or more – why does anything need to be produced?

    It’s an interesting conundrum. Mack Reynolds wrote many of his stories involving a similar situation. And in another situation I mentioned a sci-fi story I’d read where basically all manufacturing/production had been automated and the only thing people existed for was to use up/wear out the stuff that had been produced.

    Maybe it’s all about power/control. If there are no people to oligarch, then the oligarchs are pointless too.

    Yes, power of the useless proles, sure.  That would make a fine hobby.  But what if they only produced for the needs of the productive?  And they cut out the other 95% of the population.  Think of the benefit to the ecosystem, and all the vast green spaces returned to the pristine glory of nature.  The Ganges would be drinkable again.

    • #67
  8. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Steve Bannon put it well in a Frontline interview. Unlimited immigration is good because it swamps the workforce with cheap labor which helps a corporation’s margin, though this decreases earning power of the existing population. Free trade and using foreign work forces work well because this provides cheap overseas labor which is good for their margin, though it decreases the earning power of the existing population. Populism doesn’t work well for the corporations because it raises the earning power of the existing population.

    An important distinction.

    I think, if Schwab is right, that corporations will ultimately control subsidiary governments, which will not be sovereign states.

    Given a choice, corporatist rule seems likely to be less onerous than ideological rule, especially if the ideology comes from either CCP or Sharia.

    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven. There is no profit in paying a person, say, $1,000 a month to buy $1,000 of food, rent and entertainment. In fact there are administration costs that would make it a net loss. Why would corporations submit to these costs? In other words, what good is a population of 8 or 9 billion if they don’t produce anything for the corporation and only have to be subsidized?

    But if there aren’t people – maybe even 8 or 9 billion or more – why does anything need to be produced?

    It’s an interesting conundrum. Mack Reynolds wrote many of his stories involving a similar situation. And in another situation I mentioned a sci-fi story I’d read where basically all manufacturing/production had been automated and the only thing people existed for was to use up/wear out the stuff that had been produced.

    Maybe it’s all about power/control. If there are no people to oligarch, then the oligarchs are pointless too.

    Right here I’ll mention 2 things. We, during my lifetime in America, have always had economic growth as a domestic policy objective. Does that still apply in this future under discussion. there are three endeavors involving actual human being that don’t disappear under the robotic production/human consumption scenario: arts, sports, and entertainment.

    • #68
  9. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Steve Bannon put it well in a Frontline interview. Unlimited immigration is good because it swamps the workforce with cheap labor which helps a corporation’s margin, though this decreases earning power of the existing population. Free trade and using foreign work forces work well because this provides cheap overseas labor which is good for their margin, though it decreases the earning power of the existing population. Populism doesn’t work well for the corporations because it raises the earning power of the existing population.

    An important distinction.

    I think, if Schwab is right, that corporations will ultimately control subsidiary governments, which will not be sovereign states.

    Given a choice, corporatist rule seems likely to be less onerous than ideological rule, especially if the ideology comes from either CCP or Sharia.

    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven. There is no profit in paying a person, say, $1,000 a month to buy $1,000 of food, rent and entertainment. In fact there are administration costs that would make it a net loss. Why would corporations submit to these costs? In other words, what good is a population of 8 or 9 billion if they don’t produce anything for the corporation and only have to be subsidized?

    But if there aren’t people – maybe even 8 or 9 billion or more – why does anything need to be produced?

    It’s an interesting conundrum. Mack Reynolds wrote many of his stories involving a similar situation. And in another situation I mentioned a sci-fi story I’d read where basically all manufacturing/production had been automated and the only thing people existed for was to use up/wear out the stuff that had been produced.

    Maybe it’s all about power/control. If there are no people to oligarch, then the oligarchs are pointless too.

    Yes, power of the useless proles, sure. That would make a fine hobby. But what if they only produced for the needs of the productive? And they cut out the other 95% of the population. Think of the benefit to the ecosystem, and all the vast green spaces returned to the pristine glory of nature. The Ganges would be drinkable again.

    Don’t oligarchs also want to be admired/adored?

    • #69
  10. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    When the robots are smarter than any humans do the robots take care of all the technological innovation? What do the different species of robots do when they don’t agree on the next steps?

    • #70
  11. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):
    Right here I’ll mention 2 things. We, during my lifetime in America, have always had economic growth as a domestic policy objective. Does that still apply in this future under discussion. there are three endeavors involving actual human being that don’t disappear under the robotic production/human consumption scenario: arts, sports, and entertainment.

    The whole economy, government, and financial system has to adjust to deflation, otherwise known as better living through purchasing power. If they do that, then yes.

    • #71
  12. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    Steve Bannon put it well in a Frontline interview. Unlimited immigration is good because it swamps the workforce with cheap labor which helps a corporation’s margin, though this decreases earning power of the existing population. Free trade and using foreign work forces work well because this provides cheap overseas labor which is good for their margin, though it decreases the earning power of the existing population. Populism doesn’t work well for the corporations because it raises the earning power of the existing population.

    An important distinction.

    I think, if Schwab is right, that corporations will ultimately control subsidiary governments, which will not be sovereign states.

    Given a choice, corporatist rule seems likely to be less onerous than ideological rule, especially if the ideology comes from either CCP or Sharia.

    Yes, that’s possible. But also corporations are purely profit driven. There is no profit in paying a person, say, $1,000 a month to buy $1,000 of food, rent and entertainment. In fact there are administration costs that would make it a net loss. Why would corporations submit to these costs? In other words, what good is a population of 8 or 9 billion if they don’t produce anything for the corporation and only have to be subsidized?

    But if there aren’t people – maybe even 8 or 9 billion or more – why does anything need to be produced?

    It’s an interesting conundrum. Mack Reynolds wrote many of his stories involving a similar situation. And in another situation I mentioned a sci-fi story I’d read where basically all manufacturing/production had been automated and the only thing people existed for was to use up/wear out the stuff that had been produced.

    Maybe it’s all about power/control. If there are no people to oligarch, then the oligarchs are pointless too.

    Yes, power of the useless proles, sure. That would make a fine hobby. But what if they only produced for the needs of the productive? And they cut out the other 95% of the population. Think of the benefit to the ecosystem, and all the vast green spaces returned to the pristine glory of nature. The Ganges would be drinkable again.

    Don’t oligarchs also want to be admired/adored?

    I think 500 million would be plenty to be seen all bowing at once.  But I’m not greedy.  Will anyone get a kick out of being worshiped by 7 billion people they never see?  I’m just asking — I don’t know.

    • #72
  13. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):
    Right here I’ll mention 2 things. We, during my lifetime in America, have always had economic growth as a domestic policy objective. Does that still apply in this future under discussion. there are three endeavors involving actual human being that don’t disappear under the robotic production/human consumption scenario: arts, sports, and entertainment.

    The whole economy, government, and financial system has to adjust to deflation, otherwise known as better living through purchasing power. If they do that, then yes.

    Is the truest populist approach one that chooses the deflation approach? If we achieved that what would today’s elite look like. There must be loads of talent in that group that would do as well as now. What would society’s basic structure look like economically?

    • #73
  14. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):
    Right here I’ll mention 2 things. We, during my lifetime in America, have always had economic growth as a domestic policy objective. Does that still apply in this future under discussion. there are three endeavors involving actual human being that don’t disappear under the robotic production/human consumption scenario: arts, sports, and entertainment.

    The whole economy, government, and financial system has to adjust to deflation, otherwise known as better living through purchasing power. If they do that, then yes.

    Is the truest populist approach one that chooses the deflation approach? If we achieved that what would today’s elite look like. There must be loads of talent in that group that would do as well as now. What would society’s basic structure look like economically?

    This is a good question. A slight deflation spreads power out to the people instead of sending it up to the top. 

    The problem is, it would retard credit growth a little bit which, if we had more community banks, would spread power and agency out to the people as well.

    That podcast I posted talks about this, but be warned those guys are talking about really complicated stuff and I think it’s probably a dumb idea because our leaders are just too corrupt and stupid to pull it off, but he brings up exactly what the problem is.

    • #74
  15. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    That podcast I posted talks about this,

    Comment #48.

    • #75
  16. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    The problem is, it would retard credit growth a little bit which, if we had more community banks, would spread power and agency out to the people as well.

     

    When I entered banking in the 1950’s we had community banks. I can remember when we had to search for other banks to participate when we got borrowers seeking loans bigger than we were authorized based on our capital. Now we look like one big bank although they do spread it around a little to reduce that look. We had 3 to 4 times the number of banks then as now plus loads of S & L’s, though they were frequently corrupted family run mutual institutions and too specialized in short-term savings and long-term lending.

    • #76
  17. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    This is the video I was talking about. It’s 11 minutes long. There are others like it.

     

     

     

    • #77
  18. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

     

     

    But as Greenspan revealed in his 1966 article called “Gold and Economic Freedom,” he actually knew the truth. He knew that the Fed creates business cyles — he wrote this in his article, even getting the story of the Great Depression right. He knew that fiat money builds the state. He said that gold is the only monetary guarantee of freedom.

     

    All of this was mere prelude toward 1987, when the goal of his career was at hand. He was nominated for the position he had been training for during his entire life: head of the Fed. What happened soon after was the famous stock market crash of 1987. Here he did what he would do again and again during his 20-year tenure. He met every crisis with the same tactic: he opened the monetary spigots.

    Monetary pumping was his one weapon. Think of the occasions: the Mexican debt crisis of 1996, the Asian Contagion of 1997, Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, the Y2K crisis of 1999 and 2000, the dot-com collapse, and finally the 9-11 terrorist incidents in Washington and New York. Oh, and never forget that Greenspan, on November 13, 2001, received the Enron Prize.

    What was behind all of this? Essentially, he proved himself adept at serving the state whenever it needed help. Politicians used Greenspan as what Sheehan calls their “air-raid shelter.” He did them a favor and they returned it by appointing him again and again, and they fawned over him as no one has ever been fawned over. And it’s no wonder. He was history’s biggest counterfeiter.

    You can see the map of this in the federal-funds rate. Looking at the chart from the 1960s to the present, we see a huge arch, with the peak in 1979, and the rate trending steadily downward to the present level of zero. The only way this could be justified would be through a large increase in savings and capital, and we have not seen this. This picture of lower and lower rates is wholly artificial. Not only that, they are bubble inducing in the extreme.

    What we are experiencing now, in the United States and other countries, is a direct result of Greenspan’s tenure, which led to the greatest financial catastrophe in modern times. And make no mistake: every bit of this can be blamed on Greenspan directly.

     

     

    • #78
  19. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    And yet even here, his options were limited. One might think that, as a supporter of the free market, conservative journals of opinion would be open to him. But soon after the Cold War intensified, he could no longer be quiet on an issue that was vastly important to him, namely, the relationship between liberty and military expansionism. He saw the warfare state as nothing but a species of socialism. And so he adhered to the credo of the old classical liberals: a free market plus a peaceful international outlook. For this, he was excommunicated by the conservatives.

    The result was that he ended up building his own global movement, one that began in his living room and extended to the whole human race. His two-dozen books and thousands of articles ended up inspiring a vast, worldwide movement for liberty. His economic writings bridged the gap between Mises and the current generation of Austrians. His wonderful personality demonstrated to one and all that it is possible to have fun while fighting leviathan.

     

    Greenspan will leave an economy in shambles and a lifetime of pandering. Rothbard left a grand vision of liberty united with science, an example of what it means to truly think long term.

     

    If you read that article, Arthur Burns was the primary guy that started the inflation in the 70s. 

    • #79
  20. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

     

     

     

     

    • #80
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