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Friends, Enemies, and Frenemies
As I study the prospect of Joe Biden becoming President, I realize he will probably try to turn our national security on its head. Following the policies of Barack Obama, he will work to ingratiate himself to the rest of the world, following the theme of globalization. He has already stated his intention to re-enter the JCPOA.
But cozying up to the Iran regime isn’t the only danger we might anticipate. He’s signaled his intention of re-building a relationship with China—you know, the country who regularly stole intellectual property and indulged in a trade imbalance with us—until President Trump came on the scene.
Before Joe Biden takes the helm, it will be critical for our government to prioritize our international relationships. In politics, there are no friends for life, nor enemies for that matter. And some countries, for one reason or another, are on the fence, due to their choices or ours, about the kind of relationship they want to have with us.
Trying to be loved and accepted by the world is not only dangerous, but it’s a waste of time. Many countries will see our deferring to their expectations as a demonstration of weakness and ambivalence. That’s not the way successful diplomacy works. Our friends need to know that when push comes to shove, we will back them up; our enemies need to know that a red line (that will be honored) may be drawn if they endanger us or our friends. We are a powerful country and own that reputation.
So, in the name of national security, it’s important for us to clarify who our friends are; Trump let countries know that they would benefit from aligning with us. Our enemies only need to look at China to know that the penalties can be damaging if they try to take advantage of us; Iran learned from the devastating sanctions they incurred.
As you look at the world, who do you see as our friends? Who do you see as our enemies? And even more intriguing, who do you see as our “frenemies,” those who have damaged their relationship with us or with others, but have the potential to work themselves back into our good graces?
Most importantly, what other damage do you see Biden committing in his new role, and is there a way to stop him or minimize the threat to our national security?
Published in Foreign Policy
“Self love is not so vile a sin as self neglect.” – Shakespeare – Henry the V The biggest problem with Obama’s foreign policy which is likely inherited by Biden is that he has signaled he will promote the interests of others while neglecting our own. Unfortunately the biggest enemy nation the Democrats see in the foreign policy space is the USA.
Israel. Britain, Poland. Canada, Australia, Japan. On days when I’m feeling charitable, Denmark and the Baltic states. I’d like to be friends with India.
The rest can go hang.
Susan,
It is not OK that China has reneged on its promise to allow Hong Kong its separate system and crushes all freedom there. It is not OK that China is committing genocide with the Uighurs in the concentration camps of western China. It is not OK that China has a huge military buildup on the coast and threatens Taiwan with invasion. It is not OK that China in bellicose dictatorial fashion threatens Australia and Japan.
Donald Trump talked soft but carried a big stick. Biden will be the reverse. He will make tough-sounding statements and then signal to China that they can do whatever they want by avoiding all actions that ‘might upset them’. The Democrats are rotten to the core with brainless Marxist sympathizing globalists. Appeasement of China will lead to war. Guaranteed.
Regards,
Jim
What ought to be of equal concern is that it appears that China already has no shortage of information with which to compromise and blackmail Mr. Biden. Content from the Hunter Biden laptop – none of which has been denied by Biden – reveals that China already has enough dirt on Ol’ Joe to keep him quiet and complicit throughout his entire term in office.
I’m not suggesting a conspiracy; I’m saying it’s already right out there in the open, literally a “smoking gun” of Chinese influence peddling on the part of the person soon to be President of the United States.
Bin Laden’s “Strong Horse/Weak Horse” analogy, delivered prior to 9/11, will be a factor in how other governments treat the Biden Administration, just as they were when he made the statement during the Clinton Administration, and in the Bush 43, Obama and Trump Administrations that followed. It was noteworthy that the mullahs at first started off in 2017 wary of Trump, compared to the doormat/patsy attitude they had shown Obama, and then started probing Trump for weaknesses more and more with provocative actions … until he green-it the missile strike on Quasim Soleimani when he tried to do the victory lap at the airport in Iraq on Jan. 2. Crickets since then, and it’s not all due to Iran being one of the first countries hard-hit by the Wuhan flu.
Biden will be tested by Iran, China, Russia, North Korea and anyone else looking to see weakness in American actions, while others who have relied on the U.S. to assure stability will be setting up their own backup plans, which is what the Arab Gulf states and the Israelis did when they saw Obama was planning to allow Iran to become a nuclear power to counterbalance Israel in the Middle East. (And if those troublemaking nations do find avenues to increase their power at the expense of a more feckless Biden Administration, that’s going to be far harder for the media to spin as Trump’s fault than any sort of domestic negative consequences of a President Biden, and where the media attempting to spin Joe and Xi getting along better than Xi and Trump did probably isn’t going to be taken as some sort of net positive by anyone outside of hardcore crony capitalist Democrats and the corporations that fund them.)
You stole my best stuff. Well said, friend.
Don’t want to be friends with India, want to be partners with them in China containment and in improved trade relations. If they move toward religious freedom maybe friendship down the road.
Not Ireland?
I don’t fear the Democrats even though they are hopelessly misguided. I fear spineless Republicans and stupid Republicans who are supposed to be our firewall against their bad ideas.
I think you are exactly right, @raxxalan. I don’t get it. I wonder how he explains why that is okay??
I’m with you, @percival. At this point, are we not friends with India? I’m never quite sure.
I see no reason to think a Biden Administration will be much different from an Obama Administration in the area of foreign relations. That’s because it’s a “Democrat thing” to conduct diplomacy with the goal of getting “them” to like us. Tony Blinken, the SecState (assuming Biden’s election goes through) is about as establishment as one can get from a State Dept. perspective, which means that, if you liked Trump/Pompeo, you won’t like Biden/Blinkin (and Nod?).
Everyone should try to read the WSJ editorial by John Ratcliffe. He says China is the biggest danger. They do want to take over the world after all. And Jim, your listing is spot on; thanks for filling in that picture!
I completely agree, @postmodernhoplite. But only conservatives and Republicans think it matters. You say it’s right out in the open, except that the MSM ignores it! It’s going to be ugly.
But I have no doubt that they will try, @jon1979. Trump will be so easy to repeatedly trounce on, and people on the Left will love it.
Good point. They haven’t shown much religious tolerance have they, @sisyphus.
I think we could include Ireland, but they’re less consequential internationally, aren’t they?
Excellent point, @eherring. Some of them miss the Swamp a little too much.
@susanquinn unfortunately he doesn’t have to explain anything. Being a democrat means the media never challenges your narrative. Also they agree with him that the world would be a better place without the USA.
I think it more becomes an issue of why leave them out. Have I overlooked a reason? The anglophone nations are a but of a thing, and there has long been talk of formalizing it in some way. Frustrated for years by the republic vs. kingdom political philosophies with kingdom being the binding philosophy of the Commonwealth. Every decade or so the waters are tested again, though, to see if that is still an obstacle.
Czech Republic are a real ally, too.
I disagree, we have the best allies that money can buy, for as long as we pay the most.
I’m assuming Biden will not be the one calling the shots, just as Obama was not the one in control. What will those who are the puppetmasters do on the world stage? More of the same as under Obama, probably pushed further toward globalization because they know they can and this is their second big chance. Obama’s administration laid the groundwork. The D party truly is a machine. It doesn’t matter who the figurehead is because the machine runs things.
I don’t doubt they’ll try. But you had a situation where, a year ago at this time, the Democrats were chiding Trump for not sending more troops to Syria, which is far from the boilerplate ‘warmonger’ talking points they’ve used on ever previous Republican president since Nixon.
They and the media are really going to have to use newspeak and twist themselves into pretzels to make Trump fit their standard GOP warmonger narrative, if the world’s hot spots start getting worse under Biden, because the trouble-making regimes realize they can roll the new president and his foreign policy team.
Thanks. Do you have any thoughts on other countries who could threaten us who might not be so obvious. Russia is one, of course. But do you see others that might try to cause us trouble?
Poland and the Czech Republic are exceptions. They embraced Reagan republicanism as the philosophical driver that liberated them from Socialist oppression. They were thrown into crisis when, under Obama, the US was opposing republicanism in favor of something much closer to Sovietism. To have the US actively trying to undermine their republics was a shock.
I was taught back in the dark ages that diplomacy is easiest conducted by taking advantage of mutual needs/dependence, not by sucking up to countries for whom we are an obstacle to their needs. Japan, Australia, India, the Baltics, even Germany and (unfortunately) the Saudis fit in this category. There’s nothing like fear of a third party to help forge an advantageous common bond.
I think you’ve got it right, @hoyacon. Sucking up is only a sign of weakness and doesn’t lead to a balanced relationship. Countries for the most part accept that we are powerful and just expect fair treatment in return. Sucking up doesn’t fit the equation.
Obviously, I agree, but I suppose that we should acknowledge that there are a lot of smart people who would see “sucking up” as a pejorative categorization. These folks are in the State Dept., foreign service, and academia, and, contrary to how many get categorized, really believe that “mutual understanding” is a key to successful international relationships. I don’t get it, but I also think that it’s important not to dismiss many of them as “squishes” and “dupes.” Because a lot of them aren’t. They are the product of a post-Cold War environment.
Maybe “naive” is a more tactful word choice? And it’s kind of hard to reach mutual understanding when they couldn’t care less about understanding us unless it’s to take advantage of us. That’s not true of every country, but certainly of some.
Closer than we have been, I think.
Ah, Ireland. Struggling for years for independence only to let Brussels dictate how bendy your bananas can be makes no sense.