Current Status of the House Elections

 

In the Land of Confusion podcast that we taped Friday night, I gave a brief update on the election results in the House of Representatives. At that time, five races remained undetermined, according to RealClearPolitics. Two of those have now been called, one for each party. Here is the current status of the House as detailed by RCP (here):

The Democrats lead 222-210, with three races undecided. Thus far, this is a gain of 10 for the Republicans and a loss of 9 for the Democrats. Of the three undecided races, two were previously held by a Democrat and one was previously held by a Republican.

Republicans have a majority of the state delegations in 26 states, Democrats have a majority in 20, and 3 are tied. One remains to be determined — Iowa — which will either result in a Republican majority or a tie.

The three open races are:

1. California District 25: Republican incumbent Mike Garcia leads Democratic challenger Christy Smith, 50.1%-49.9%. The current vote totals per RCP are Garcia 169,060, Smith 168,660, a margin of just 400 votes. This is a rematch of a special election on May 12, 2020, which Garcia won pretty handily (54.9%-45.1%).

2. Iowa District 2: Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart, 196,862-196,815, a margin of just 47 votes. In rounded percentage terms, this is 50.0%-50.0%. The incumbent is a Democrat who did not seek re-election.

3. New York District 22: Republican challenger Claudia Tenney leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi 49.0%-48.9%, with a margin of 300 votes, 154,730-154,430.

If the current vote count holds, Republicans will win all three seats and end with an overall gain of 13 House seats. The Democrats will have a House majority of 15 at the most, 9 at the least.

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  1. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    • #1
  2. JamesSalerno Coolidge
    JamesSalerno
    @JamesSalerno

    Jerry, we talked about this briefly on Friday, the NY race is my district. I’m worried about this one because of the absentee ballots. There’s also some talk that this may go to the courts:

    https://www.binghamtonhomepage.com/local-news-2/tenney-brindisi-race-may-come-down-to-judge-ruling/

     

    • #2
  3. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    Here is something:

    • 1956 in Dwight D. Eisenhower’s reelection.  R’s lose 2 seats
    • 1988 in George H.W. Bush’s win R’s lose 2 seats
    • 1992 in Bill Clinton’s win: D’s lose 9 seats
    • 1996 in Bill Clinton’s reelection: D’s lose 2 seats
    • 2000 in George W. Bush’s win: R’s lose 1 seat
    • 2016 in Donald Trump’s win: R’s lose 6 seats
    • #3
  4. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    Thanks for the update.  Now we need to hold the Senate.

    • #4
  5. OldPhil Coolidge
    OldPhil
    @OldPhil

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    • #5
  6. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…
    @ArizonaPatriot

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    This is a bit too cynical, in my view, and factually unsupported.  We’ll see.

    As noted at the start of the OP, two races that were not called on Friday night have now been called.  One was called for the Republican, one for the Democrat.  If all of these close elections are being stolen, the Democrats should have won both.

    • #6
  7. OldPhil Coolidge
    OldPhil
    @OldPhil

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    This is a bit too cynical, in my view, and factually unsupported. We’ll see.

    As noted at the start of the OP, two races that were not called on Friday night have now been called. One was called for the Republican, one for the Democrat. If all of these close elections are being stolen, the Democrats should have won both.

    Cynical is my new middle name.

    • #7
  8. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    D votes will magically keep appearing till they win.

    • #8
  9. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Kozak (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    D votes will magically keep appearing till they win.

    Tell me why this did not happen in California District 21, which was called over the weekend for the Republican.

    • #9
  10. Freeven Member
    Freeven
    @Freeven

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    This is a bit too cynical, in my view, and factually unsupported. We’ll see.

    It’s a prediction. The fact of it remains to be seen. ;)

    • #10
  11. aardo vozz Member
    aardo vozz
    @aardovozz

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    This is a bit too cynical, in my view, and factually unsupported. We’ll see.

    No. It is not cynical enough.  

     

    • #11
  12. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    It’s harder for the algorithm to add and hide votes votes down-ballot.

    • #12
  13. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    D votes will magically keep appearing till they win.

    Tell me why this did not happen in California District 21, which was called over the weekend for the Republican.

    The Democrats swept Orange County in 2018 by ballot harvesting.  This year a ton of money was spent on Senate seats.  Maybe the House was assumed to be safe by people who believed the polls. Money was spent elsewhere.  A big bundle was spent on Prop 16, which thank god was wasted.  Maybe the Senate and Presidential races soaked up all the money.  Vote fraud of that magnitude has got to be expensive.

    • #13
  14. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races.  Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    • #14
  15. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    • #15
  16. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):
    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    The question answers itself.

    Trump has the Biggest Republican Tent in the history of the party. It is also, quite rightly, the party of the working class.

    • #16
  17. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    iWe (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):
    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    The question answers itself.

    Trump has the Biggest Republican Tent in the history of the party. It is also, quite rightly, the party of the working class.

    Of course the flip side is Trump also brought out 13.61 million more voters for Biden than Clinton had.  The question for 2024 is there a GOP candidate who can keep together the new coalition created by Trump, not antagonize enough people to increase Democrat turnout, and get back some of the suburban vote that he lost in Atlanta, Philly and Milwaukee?

    • #17
  18. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    But you assured Ricochet time and time again that Trump would poison down-ballot races. Remember all those suburban women that were going to give the Democrats a huge majority in the House and turn over the Senate?

    I see, typically, that you’ve now changed the narrative to suit your pre-disposition to support the Democrat.  This is a classic example of why it doesn’t pay at all to try to reason with you.  Sort of like the dementia that you were predicting 4-5 years ago.

    This is another one of your remarks that leaves the sensible asking: troll or just wrong?

    • #18
  19. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    If the current vote count holds, Republicans will will all three seats,

    I can predict that a batch of ballots will be found under the couch cushions.

    D votes will magically keep appearing till they win.

    Tell me why this did not happen in California District 21, which was called over the weekend for the Republican.

    The Democrats swept Orange County in 2018 by ballot harvesting. This year a ton of money was spent on Senate seats. Maybe the House was assumed to be safe by people who believed the polls. Money was spent elsewhere. A big bundle was spent on Prop 16, which thank god was wasted. Maybe the Senate and Presidential races soaked up all the money. Vote fraud of that magnitude has got to be expensive.

    That some banks are not robbed does not disprove the existence of bank robbers.

    • #19
  20. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    Of course not. GR is entirely predictable and not at all serious.

    • #20
  21. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):
    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    The question answers itself.

    Trump has the Biggest Republican Tent in the history of the party. It is also, quite rightly, the party of the working class.

    Of course the flip side is Trump also brought out 13.61 million more voters for Biden than Clinton had. The question for 2024 is there a GOP candidate who can keep together the new coalition created by Trump, not antagonize enough people to increase Democrat turnout, and get back some of the suburban vote that he lost in Atlanta, Philly and Milwaukee?

    No he did not, likely. There will be the same “Democratic turnout” advantage in every future election if they get away with it this time, and you will either continue to insist others join you in this (self-delusion?) or feel dis-empowered.

    • #21
  22. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    It’s harder for the algorithm to add and hide votes votes down-ballot.

    I agree with this. It would be very difficult to put together a single plan(algorithm) that could fit all the different down-ballot situations in a sensible way. 

    • #22
  23. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races?

    Looking at current vote totals in your state, Trump received 1,661,686 votes (49.09%) while the Republican senate candidate received 1,637,661 votes (48.83%).  Of course, I think you voted against Martha McSally too.

    In North Carolina, Trump received 2,759,284 votes (50.05%) while the Republican senate candidate received 2,666,084 votes (48.68%).

    In Montana, Trump received 343,638 votes (56.83%) while the Republican senate candidate received 334,335 votes (55.06%).

    In Kansas, Trump received 753,795 votes (56.47%) while the Republican senate candidate received 711,878 votes (53.49%).

    In South Carolina, Trump received 1,385,103 votes (55.09%) while the Republican senate candidate received  1,369,137 votes (54.49%).

    In Kentucky, Trump received 1,326,424 votes (62.08%) while the Republican senate candidate received 1,233,061 votes (57.77%).

    In Alabama, Trump received 1,441,170 votes (62.23%) while the Republican senate candidate received 1,387,908 votes (60.23%).

    In Minnesota, Trump received 1,483,932 votes (45.43%) while the Republican senate candidate received 1,400,206 votes (43.53%).

    In Virginia, Trump received 1,962,633 votes (44.18%) while the Republican senate candidate received 1,934,217 votes (43.96%).

    I think there are other examples, but this takes time.

    • #23
  24. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    If Trump had dialed by his personality just a tad, he might have squeaked out a victory.  But it is what it is.  

    Did you see that Attorney Lin Wood is asking Georgia voters to write in Trump’s name in the Georgia US Senate races as a protest against the Republican party for not investigating voter fraud against Trump?  I wonder how much traction this idea will get.

    The idea is that the best way to punish Biden for stealing the election from Trump is to give Biden more allies in the US Senate.  Brilliant!

    • #24
  25. JuliaBlaschke Lincoln
    JuliaBlaschke
    @JuliaBlaschke

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    After a year of wokey woke, looting and rioting, Democrat governors going full Stalin over Covid, the Squad and Nancy and her ice cream elitism and hair salon capers, I think there was a build up of anger that would have put a non Trump Republican into the White House. Especially if you take away the “Trump is so awful I am voting for Joe Biden” vote. A large part of Biden’s vote was simply a vote to get rid of Trump.

    • #25
  26. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    JuliaBlaschke (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    After a year of wokey woke, looting and rioting, Democrat governors going full Stalin over Covid, the Squad and Nancy and her ice cream elitism and hair salon capers, I think there was a build up of anger that would have put a non Trump Republican into the White House. Especially if you take away the “Trump is so awful I am voting for Joe Biden” vote. A large part of Biden’s vote was simply a vote to get rid of Trump.

    Just as much of Biden’s vote was really a “I can’t stand Trump” vote, much of Trump’s vote was a “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants” vote.

    • #26
  27. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):
    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    The question answers itself.

    Trump has the Biggest Republican Tent in the history of the party. It is also, quite rightly, the party of the working class.

    Of course the flip side is Trump also brought out 13.61 million more voters for Biden than Clinton had. The question for 2024 is there a GOP candidate who can keep together the new coalition created by Trump, not antagonize enough people to increase Democrat turnout, and get back some of the suburban vote that he lost in Atlanta, Philly and Milwaukee?

    You, of course, are assuming all those Biden votes were real.  Democrat “turnout” might be limited only by how fast they can print ballots.

    • #27
  28. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    JuliaBlaschke (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    This is probably out there somewhere, but I’m wondering when the last time a party “lost” the Presidential election, and gained this many House seats.

    The American people, with surgical precision, removed Trump, while supporting Republicans in down ballot races. Just imagine how well we would have done with a less destructive candidate at the head of ticket?

    Would we have attracted 10.84 million more voters than in 2016, including groundbreaking results in the black and particularly Hispanic communities, with another candidate?

    After a year of wokey woke, looting and rioting, Democrat governors going full Stalin over Covid, the Squad and Nancy and her ice cream elitism and hair salon capers, I think there was a build up of anger that would have put a non Trump Republican into the White House. Especially if you take away the “Trump is so awful I am voting for Joe Biden” vote. A large part of Biden’s vote was simply a vote to get rid of Trump.

    Just as much of Biden’s vote was really a “I can’t stand Trump” vote, much of Trump’s vote was a “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants” vote.

    Did the mask slip?  

    Concerns about the Left routinely destroying careers and silencing opponents, censoring information (even dictionaries), indoctrinating students, giving leftist rioters carte blanche to attack whomever or whatever they wanted while the police were ordered to stand down, and prosecuting anyone who defends himself — all this, and more, is reduced to “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants”?

    What a giveaway!

    • #28
  29. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Taras (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Just as much of Biden’s vote was really a “I can’t stand Trump” vote, much of Trump’s vote was a “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants” vote.

    Did the mask slip?

    Concerns about the Left routinely destroying careers and silencing opponents, censoring information (even dictionaries), indoctrinating students, giving leftist rioters carte blanche to attack whomever or whatever they wanted while the police were ordered to stand down, and prosecuting anyone who defends himself — all this, and more, is reduced to “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants”?

    What a giveaway!

    The sentence I wrote, “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants,” was just one sentance.  I was not trying to describe, in detail, all of the reasons why one could justifiably be frightened of the Left.  

    I think the Cuban-Americans of Miami-Dade County, Florida are well aware of how harmful the Left can be.  Bernie Sanders likes to use Denmark as an example of Socialism.  But one wonders why Sanders spent his honeymoon in the Soviet Union, not Denmark.  

    In any case, my single sentence did lack details.  I was trying to generalize how 150 million people voted in 2 sentences.  Perhaps that was too ambitious.

    • #29
  30. Taras Coolidge
    Taras
    @Taras

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Taras (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Just as much of Biden’s vote was really a “I can’t stand Trump” vote, much of Trump’s vote was a “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants” vote.

    Did the mask slip?

    Concerns about the Left routinely destroying careers and silencing opponents, censoring information (even dictionaries), indoctrinating students, giving leftist rioters carte blanche to attack whomever or whatever they wanted while the police were ordered to stand down, and prosecuting anyone who defends himself — all this, and more, is reduced to “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants”?

    What a giveaway!

    The sentence I wrote, “The Left is causing me to doo-doo in my pants,” was just one sentance. I was not trying to describe, in detail, all of the reasons why one could justifiably be frightened of the Left.

    I think the Cuban-Americans of Miami-Dade County, Florida are well aware of how harmful the Left can be. Bernie Sanders likes to use Denmark as an example of Socialism. But one wonders why Sanders spent his honeymoon in the Soviet Union, not Denmark.

    In any case, my single sentence did lack details. I was trying to generalize how 150 million people voted in 2 sentences. Perhaps that was too ambitious.

    You really don’t grasp how snide and disparaging it is to dismiss people’s concerns as infantile, as “doo-doo in my pants”!?

    • #30
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