Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Seven Thoughts about Election 2020: Not a Good Night For Democrats

 

Seven observations about the ongoing election.

1) Democrats may win the presidency when all is said and done (remains to be seen), but they have to very disappointed at their failure to run the table, and in fact losing down-ballot races, especially here in PA. The GOP is on track for a net loss of no more than 1 in the US Senate, if that, depending on the Michigan results.

2) About PA: Trump currently leads by more than 640,000 votes, with a reported 1.4 million mail-in ballots to be counted. 275,000 of those are from Philadelphia, another 125,000 or so from Pittsburgh. They would need to break 80-20 for Biden to win. That is highly unlikely since almost 40% of those mail ballots are from Republicans. While the potential for fraud remains high, that margin appears too big for Democrats to cheat their way to a win.

3) House GOP gains. They’re at +4 and are poised for an additional +2 or 3 (the 7th, 8th & 17th Districts) in PA, with author and veteran Sean Parnell winning in suburban Pittsburgh. GOP challengers are also currently leading in other states, including VA (Freitas). I can see the GOP gaining as much as 9 or 10 seats. They began the election needing 17 to capture control. Nancy Pelosi and her caucus took a big hit.

4) And don’t forget gubernatorial and other statewide offices. Republicans gained +1 with a win by Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) in Montana. And watch the down-ballot races! NC elected a terrific black Republican to Lt. Gov. and three statewide offices on the ballot here in PA are all led by the GOP candidates with 400,000 – 700,000 vote leads. We’ll see if all three hold – but I bet the GOP wins at least 2 of them, Tim DeFoor for Auditor General and Stacey Garrity for Treasurer. I so want Heather Heidelbaugh to unseat smarmy partisan Josh Shapiro for Attorney General.

5) It wasn’t just the Democrats who will take a net hit; the polling industry and political prognosticators, like my friends Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato, need to rethink their models, methods, and analyses. They both relied too heavily on flawed polling and projections were mostly off at all levels. Frankly, I did better. Maybe I need to go into the business.

6) If Biden/Harris win, Democrats cannot be excited about their 2022 or 2024 prospects with a GOP Senate, emboldened House GOP, and no serious mandate for their agenda. In that scenario, the GOP would be poised to capture the House in 2022 and gain Senate seats. No court-packing, no new states, no tax increases. And, no anti-Trump vote to drive Democratic turnout.

7) Last note: Congress needs to step up with serious election reform. While Article 1, Sec. 1 gives state legislatures the responsibility for the manner of elections, there are too many states with too many flawed rules and systems. Congress needs to cough up serious money to help states fix bad voter rolls in exchange for national voting standards that are clear and uniform, especially with regard to mail voting and deadlines. This election does not inspire confidence.

8) One bonus point: watch the Supreme Court, especially with pending cases about late-arriving mail ballots in PA and elsewhere. States have had to set aside all mail ballots that arrive after election day but before their deadline (Friday in PA, next week in IA, NC).

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  1. No Caesar Thatcher
    No CaesarJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    An honest question: if Biden wins and the GOP retakes the House in 2022 should we initiate Impeachment proceedings against Biden for the Hunter – scandal? Emotionally, I would like to, but I think it would be much better to have major Congressional investigations. Lindsey 2.0 can start in the Senate in January. Not Independent Counsels, Congressional investigations. 

     

    • #1
    • November 4, 2020, at 7:43 AM PST
    • 7 likes
  2. Henry Racette Contributor

    Nice summary. Thank you.

     

    • #2
    • November 4, 2020, at 7:44 AM PST
    • 9 likes
  3. Nohaaj Coolidge

    I am delighted about Sean Parnell appearing to win in deep red Allegheny county. Conor Lamb was awful. 

    • #3
    • November 4, 2020, at 7:47 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  4. lowtech redneck Coolidge

    Unfortunately, the biggest damage that Biden can do will be outside the capacity of a Republican Senate to counter, especially with a slim majority topped by open RINOs whose willingness to resist is highly questionable (their overall disgraceful response to the BLM hate movement and lackluster response to tech censorship kinda illustrates their fecklessness and cowardice). The only real saving grace is the Supreme Court, and even then I only really trust two of them.

    I’ll be highly interested in the composition of state legislatures, however.

    • #4
    • November 4, 2020, at 7:56 AM PST
    • 2 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  5. EODmom Coolidge

    No Caesar (View Comment):

    An honest question: if Biden wins and the GOP retakes the House in 2022 should we initiate Impeachment proceedings against Biden for the Hunter – scandal? Emotionally, I would like to, but I think it would be much better to have major Congressional investigations. Lindsey 2.0 can start in the Senate in January. Not Independent Counsels, Congressional investigations.

     

    Don’t think it will matter: Joe will resign shortly after any inauguration. Based on his accelerating speech problems, seems he might be having mini strokes. Or more dementia symptoms. The guy can hardly walk – I imagine he has a large cast of health aides getting him ready for a day. That’s not going to go on if he’s elected. And Jill ain’t gonna be running the show. 

    • #5
    • November 4, 2020, at 8:05 AM PST
    • 6 likes
  6. EODmom Coolidge

    I simply am not sanguine about any kind of “business as usual” as to process if Biden is elected. The Dems and their behind the curtain keepers have been clear about their scorched earth plans. Yes – the House R’a have gained seats and may keep the Senate. But the un-elected bureaucracy that DJT wasn’t able to oust will still be there running the actual guts of things, and the unnamed cabinet has plans to undo anything the executive has accomplished here last years.
    I take them at their word and I’d bet a vacation that the powers behind Biden’s curtains have their game plan ready to go, and that retribution is part of it. Little of this ballot gaming would have been possible if not the he FANG and Twit crowds acting and funding. I think they plan to continue calling shots. 

    • #6
    • November 4, 2020, at 8:11 AM PST
    • 4 likes
  7. Henry Racette Contributor

    lowtech redneck (View Comment):
    Unfortunately, the biggest damage that Biden can do will be outside the capacity of a Republican Senate to counter….

    As Comrade Sanders might say: That’s a good thing!

    Think about it. If the Democrats had taken the Senate, there would be all sorts of truly horrible things a Democratic administration could do, many of them with very long-term consequences. As it is, without the Senate and House, a President Biden (assuming that happens, as seems likely) will be pretty much limited to what a President can do on his own. That’s a lot — though less than it would have been without President Trump’s wonderful court appointments — but nowhere near as bad as if we’d lost the Senate.

    Glass half full, man.

    • #7
    • November 4, 2020, at 8:43 AM PST
    • 12 likes
  8. DonG (2+2=5. Say it!) Coolidge

    I appreciate setting expectations that declare a DEM disappointment, but in reality, this is a huge DEM win. HUGE! When all the votes are counted, they will have beaten an incumbent president during a strong economy with a corrupt and senile candidate through the use of scaring people and media influence. The damage that can be done the next 2 years is immeasurable. The nutty Leftists will claim a mandate for their religiously fanatical tyranny. Congress has given so much power to the presidency that literally everything is on the table for the Leftists.

    • #8
    • November 4, 2020, at 8:50 AM PST
    • 6 likes
  9. Guruforhire Member

    Republicans need to get an agenda, that isn’t a tax cut.

    Jobs – Schools – Healthcare

    And barn storm minority communities on these 3 things.

    The door is open.

    The problem with the Republican party(outside of establishment butthurt going back to the tea party) is we haven’t meaningfully had an agenda for 10 years. If Republicans had a meaningful health care message Virginia is still red/purple.

    • #9
    • November 4, 2020, at 8:50 AM PST
    • 9 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  10. Henry Racette Contributor

    Assuming we lose — as seems likely — I can see enough positive in this to take most of the sting out of it. I think the past four years have included some very positive, consequential transformation. It bears pausing to think about.

    • #10
    • November 4, 2020, at 8:55 AM PST
    • 14 likes
  11. JVC1207 Member

    My favorite “win” of the night was the $100 million that the Dems wasted attempting to unseat Lindsey Graham in my home state of SC:-)

    • #11
    • November 4, 2020, at 9:31 AM PST
    • 12 likes
  12. Goldgeller Member

    Good post. I think Trump loses but I’m a little sad because well… I didn’t think it would be this close! Dude nearly made lightning strike twice. I hope John James can pull a victory in Michigan. 

    The Republicans have moved closer to being the party of ethnic minorities and the working class. Let’s get more outreach. Trump did it by moving more towards populism and further from the Cato crowd. We must at least consider that this might expand the electorate.

    The Republicans have tightened the House considerably and and will almost certainly hold the Senate. That’s amazing. It’s great news. Biden will have real trouble getting the Congressional Democrats to agree to a positive agenda. If Biden wants legislation then the Speaker of the House (may not be Pelosi!) will need to allow for more openness in the rules governing amendments. Given internal Democrat divisions you may see some marginal House Dems vote with the GOP there in exchange for concessions in the Senate. This is a far cry from wondering if Dems would be able to run the table with a unified government. I’m wanting Trump to win. Feeling a bit down because he probably will lose in a nail-biter, but the developments are full of silver linings.

    • #12
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:20 PM PST
    • 5 likes
  13. David March Thatcher

    Joe Biden did not spend his life in Politics to resign 6 months in. He will try and fill his term.

    • #13
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:23 PM PST
    • 1 like
  14. Manny Member

    Well, I can’t see the Dems being disappointed if they get the presidency. 

    • #14
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:29 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  15. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White MaleJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Bucknelldad: If Biden/Harris win, Democrats cannot be excited about their 2022 or 2024 prospects with a GOP Senate, emboldened House GOP, and no serious mandate for their agenda. In that scenario, the GOP would be poised to capture the House in 2022 and gain Senate seats.

    2022 Senate seats up for election – currently 12 held by Democrats and 22 by Republicans.

     

    • #15
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:33 PM PST
    • 1 like
  16. Ralphie Member

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    Joe Biden did not spend his life in Politics to resign 6 months in. He will try and fill his term.

    He may not have a choice. Pelosi and Harris will see to that.

     

    Maybe a good thing would be for Trump to start a media company and report on the government, maybe take out the trash from the outside.

    • #16
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:38 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  17. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White MaleJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Ralphie (View Comment):

    Joe Biden did not spend his life in Politics to resign 6 months in. He will try and fill his term.

    He may not have a choice. Pelosi and Harris will see to that.

     

    Maybe a good thing would be for Trump to start a media company and report on the government, maybe take out the trash from the outside.

    Removing Biden and installing Harris will do even more to limit any “mandate” that the Democrats may claim.

    Harris’s political skills are pretty atrocious. Remember, she had to drop out before the first caucus last year.

     

    • #17
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:53 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  18. RyanFalcone Member

    I hope you are right about the idiocy here in PA. My understanding is that under 30 percent of mail-ins were Republicans. However, independents may bump the numbers for the good guys to 40.

    So happy about Lamb being gone!

    We need Shapiro to be gone as well!!!

    Next step is to get enough in the state congress to impeach the 5 hacks in the supreme court.

    • #18
    • November 4, 2020, at 12:59 PM PST
    • 5 likes
  19. Manny Member

    Manny

    Well, I can’t see the Dems being disappointed if they get the presidency. 

    And i don’t think we will be happy with the loss of the presidency. 

    • #19
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:00 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  20. Bishop Wash Member

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    Joe Biden did not spend his life in Politics to resign 6 months in. He will try and fill his term.

    Per the 25th Amendment, the President gets to submit a letter that he’s capable and Congress votes on it. If the vote fails, the Vice President continues as Acting President. My interpretation, when this was the big talk to get Trump out, is that the President isn’t removed and can keep submitting letters. I suppose impeachment and removal would have to be the next step to actually remove a President. It’s the Acting President language that makes me think the 25th Amendment route can’t be a permanent solution.

    • #20
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:05 PM PST
    • Like
  21. Vance Richards Member
    Vance RichardsJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Guruforhire (View Comment):

    Republicans need to get an agenda, that isn’t a tax cut.

    Jobs – Schools – Healthcare

    And barn storm minority communities on these 3 things.

    The door is open.

    The problem with the Republican party(outside of establishment butthurt going back to the tea party) is we haven’t meaningfully had an agenda for 10 years. If Republicans had a meaningful health care message Virginia is still red/purple.

    Sometimes I think he Republicans prefer to be the opposition party where they can just complain without having to actually do anything. We heard “repeal and replace Obamacare” for years but when the GOP took the house, they did not have a plan ready to go.

    • #21
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:14 PM PST
    • 7 likes
  22. Henry Castaigne Member

    Manny (View Comment):

    Well, I can’t see the Dems being disappointed if they get the presidency.

    I can see them being disappointed that they can’t get anything done.

    • #22
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:16 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  23. Henry Castaigne Member

    9) According to exit polls, nonwhites voted at a higher rate for a Republican than they have since 1960. That’s a significant demographic shift. 

    • #23
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:20 PM PST
    • 9 likes
  24. Bucknelldad Coolidge
    Bucknelldad

    No Caesar (View Comment):

    An honest question: if Biden wins and the GOP retakes the House in 2022 should we initiate Impeachment proceedings against Biden for the Hunter – scandal? Emotionally, I would like to, but I think it would be much better to have major Congressional investigations. Lindsey 2.0 can start in the Senate in January. Not Independent Counsels, Congressional investigations.

     

    There is a good chance Joe will be gone by, or just after the mid-term elections, either voluntarily or via the 25th Amendment, especially if they’re suffering politically. Just my guess. 

    • #24
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:40 PM PST
    • 1 like
  25. Bucknelldad Coolidge
    Bucknelldad

    lowtech redneck (View Comment):

    Unfortunately, the biggest damage that Biden can do will be outside the capacity of a Republican Senate to counter, especially with a slim majority topped by open RINOs whose willingness to resist is highly questionable (their overall disgraceful response to the BLM hate movement and lackluster response to tech censorship kinda illustrates their fecklessness and cowardice). The only real saving grace is the Supreme Court, and even then I only really trust two of them.

    I’ll be highly interested in the composition of state legislatures, however.

    State legislative composition/control did not materially change. Some states, like Florida saw increases in GOP representation in the state legislature, based on what I’ve read and seen. Thirty-nine states are controlled by GOP legislatures. That bodes well in those states for reapportionment in 2022.

    • #25
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:42 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  26. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member

    Ralphie (View Comment):
    Maybe a good thing would be for Trump to start a media company and report on the government, maybe take out the trash from the outside.

    I guarantee that Donald Trump and his family will be the victims of numerous Federal and state prosecutions. They need to serve as an example of what happens if an outsider tries to drain the swamp.

    • #26
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:44 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  27. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White MaleJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Henry Castaigne (View Comment):

    9) According to exit polls, nonwhites voted at a higher rate for a Republican than they have since 1960. That’s a significant demographic shift.

    Trump is apparently just not very good at being racist.

     

     

    • #27
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:45 PM PST
    • 8 likes
  28. Bishop Wash Member

    Bucknelldad (View Comment):

    lowtech redneck (View Comment):

    Unfortunately, the biggest damage that Biden can do will be outside the capacity of a Republican Senate to counter, especially with a slim majority topped by open RINOs whose willingness to resist is highly questionable (their overall disgraceful response to the BLM hate movement and lackluster response to tech censorship kinda illustrates their fecklessness and cowardice). The only real saving grace is the Supreme Court, and even then I only really trust two of them.

    I’ll be highly interested in the composition of state legislatures, however.

    State legislative composition/control did not materially change. Some states, like Florida saw increases in GOP representation in the state legislature, based on what I’ve read and seen. Thirty-nine states are controlled by GOP legislatures. That bodes well in those states for reapportionment in 2022.

    Slightly off topic but you mentioned reapportionment. When will we get an idea of how the census went? I had seen speculation at the beginning of the year that California was going to lose one or two representatives.

    • #28
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:46 PM PST
    • 1 like
  29. Bucknelldad Coolidge
    Bucknelldad

    Guruforhire (View Comment):

    Republicans need to get an agenda, that isn’t a tax cut.

    Jobs – Schools – Healthcare

    And barn storm minority communities on these 3 things.

    The door is open.

    The problem with the Republican party(outside of establishment butthurt going back to the tea party) is we haven’t meaningfully had an agenda for 10 years. If Republicans had a meaningful health care message Virginia is still red/purple.

    Good thoughts. The GOP, especially in a post-Trump world, will brand itself as a multi-ethnic working-class party. Working-class whites, Hispanics, and blacks. And what do they care about? Kitchen table stuff, like safe neighborhoods, good schools, and good jobs with benefits. Trump, to his credit, has made progress with people of color, from economic zones (thank you, Sen. Tim Scott), criminal justice reform, etc.) but much work remains. There are issues, such as school choice (which helped Ron DeSantis capture a large percentage of the black vote, especially among women, in his 2018 Florida gubernatorial race). 

    • #29
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:47 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  30. lowtech redneck Coolidge

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    Bucknelldad (View Comment):

    lowtech redneck (View Comment):

    Unfortunately, the biggest damage that Biden can do will be outside the capacity of a Republican Senate to counter, especially with a slim majority topped by open RINOs whose willingness to resist is highly questionable (their overall disgraceful response to the BLM hate movement and lackluster response to tech censorship kinda illustrates their fecklessness and cowardice). The only real saving grace is the Supreme Court, and even then I only really trust two of them.

    I’ll be highly interested in the composition of state legislatures, however.

    State legislative composition/control did not materially change. Some states, like Florida saw increases in GOP representation in the state legislature, based on what I’ve read and seen. Thirty-nine states are controlled by GOP legislatures. That bodes well in those states for reapportionment in 2022.

    Slightly off topic but you mentioned reapportionment. When will we get an idea of how the census went? I had seen speculation at the beginning of the year that California was going to lose one or two representatives.

    Sometime by 2022, that’s all I know.

    • #30
    • November 4, 2020, at 1:47 PM PST
    • Like