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I have an update on COVID-19 reported cases and deaths for the US and Western Europe, through yesterday (March 28). These graphs focus on population-adjusted figures and growth rates.
Italy and Spain remain the hardest-hit countries on a per capita basis, by a wide margin. Spain actually surpassed Italy in reported cases per million yesterday, though Italy remains highest in reported deaths per million. On a per capita basis, the US has only 4-5% as many deaths reported as Italy and Spain.
As before, my data source is Johns Hopkins. Details in the comments.
I start with reported deaths per million, by country, for the US and the major Western European nations.
The line for the US (medium blue) and Germany (orange) are difficult to distinguish at this scale, at the bottom of the graph.
Here are the deaths per million figures for the smaller Western European countries. I’ve left Italy in the graph for comparison, so the scale is the same as the first graph above.
I know that it’s a bit hard to differentiate these at this scale. None of the other countries are comparable to Italy or Spain, at least not yet. The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, and Luxembourg are similar to France at present, while the others (Portugal, Sweden, Austria, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland) are significantly lower, around the level of the US, Germany, and the UK.
The next graph shows the daily growth rate in reported COVID-19 deaths, for the US, Italy, Spain, and France. (I left out Germany and the UK because inclusion made the graph too difficult to read.) This figure varies fairly widely from day to day, so I have smoothed the data by calculating a 4-day moving average.
You can see a general downward trend for Italy (light blue) and Spain (green), which is very good news. France’s figure is more variable. The high early rate in the US was when there were very low numbers of reported deaths (12 or less).
The daily growth rate in reported deaths, in the US, has been fairly steady at around 30% for the past 10 days or so. This is approximately exponential growth, but remember that we expect this to decline, as has occurred in other countries. The difficult question is when.
The next graph is transitional between reported deaths and total reported cases. This graph shows the case fatality rate, meaning the number of reported deaths as a percentage of the number of reported cases. Remember that this is not the mortality rate, but I think that it is a useful comparison between countries. This graph includes a combined line for the smaller European countries (labeled “Other W. Eur.”).
As you can see, the case fatality rate remains unusually low in Germany and the US.
The next graph is total reported cases per million.
You can see that Spain has now surpassed Italy by this metric. The US is at approximately 25% of the level of Italy and Spain in number of cases per capita (but only around 4-5% in number of deaths per capita).
The final graph is the growth rate in reported cases, showing a 4-day moving average.
As you can see, this growth rate has followed a general downward trend in all countries. The US currently has the highest growth in reported cases, but it is trending down. In several instances — the US (blue), Spain (green), and Germany (orange), you can see a “hump” in the trend line, probably corresponding to significantly increased testing, which occurred at different times in different countries.
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