Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Coronavirus Update: A New Projection for the US

 

There’s a new COVID-19 projection for the US, released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Our friend Rodin has an excellent post on the subject, earlier today (here). Special thanks to Rodin for all of his work on this, keeping us updated with daily posts for over a month now.

The IHME has an interactive page about its projections here. It has excellent graphs and tabular information, with a drop-down menu allowing you to focus on a particular state. The purpose of this post is to provide you with a state-by-state summary.

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. My Son, the Ventilator Maker

 

I’ve posted before about my oldest son, a 24-year-old sergeant in the Marine reserves. He had an active duty deployment last year to Latin America, returning home shortly before Christmas. He remained on active duty for another couple of months, through early February (approximately), then returned to his civilian job.

It turns out that he makes ventilator parts. He is a manufacturing tech at a small Tucson company called Alicat Scientific (website here). Alicat makes devices like flow controllers, flow meters, and pressure controllers for dealing with gas flow. Shown is a sample product.

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Interview with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD

 

We have had a lot of positive feedback on our interview with Stanford University Professor of Medicine Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD on the Ricochet Podcast. As a public service, we’re offering just the interview portion of our video podcast and encourage you to share it with others.

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Member Post

 

How many ICU admissions are directly related to COVID-19? What percentage of ICU admissions are related to COVID-19? The core challenge seems to be limited resources in responding to any respiratory epidemic. Thus, the COVID-19 mortality rate, which so far remains comparable to a normal flu virus at around 0.5% (Correction: 5% globally, 1.7% in […]

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Coronavirus Update: Death Rate As of 3-26-2020

 

The big news today is that the US now has more reported COVID-19 cases than any other country. Remain calm. Remember that our rates of infection remain far below those of the two hardest-hit countries, Italy and Spain. The US has about 5.5 times the population of Italy and about 7 times the population of Spain. So it is no surprise that we have the most cases.

I’ve reviewed all of the data for today (March 26) from Johns Hopkins, and there are no significant departures from prior trends.

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of this current pestilence. This doctor’s thorough assessment was shared on FB from a nurses’ page; I thought it was interesting, at least the parts I could understand, and it gives a window to hospital professionals’ experience of this crisis. Obviously, this is a valuable contribution only if it’s real. REPOST: Valuable read for anyone […]

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Join Jim and Greg as they welcome reassuring news from Dr. Birx about the COVID-19 threat. They also agree there’s a ton of wasteful spending in the relief bill but aren’t sure if forcing members back to D.C. was a great move by Rep. Thomas Massie. And they slam media outlets for believing the U.S. really has more COVID-19 cases than China and wonder whether China is hiding a second spike of the virus.

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Member Post

 

The US reported a total of 1,209 COVID-19 deaths as of yesterday (March 26, 2020). The deaths are heavily concentrated in the metro areas of New York, Seattle, New Orleans, and Detroit. The New York figures are much larger than any other jurisdiction. Here is the key graph: There are some challenges in data compilation, […]

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Member Post

 

Like many people here, I greatly fear that the economic catastrophe of shutting down the entire world economy may cause death and destruction far greater than the Covid-19 pandemic itself. A depression rivaling the Great Depression will truly cost thousands of lives, and will destroy our precious health care system every bit as much as […]

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Member Post

 

I have an updated COVID-19 analysis for you today, focusing on what I will now call the “case fatality rate.” I define the case fatality rate as the total number of reported deaths, divided by the total number of reported cases, expressed as a percentage. I used this ratio in my post two days ago (here), calling […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Politicians Have Overreacted to Coronavirus

 

The coronavirus crisis put Americans to the test. Could we function in a sane, scientifically informed, non-partisan manner to rationally protect the public while encountering a newly discovered viral disease?

The answer is no. Goaded on by in unrelenting hysterical media, our leaders have inflicted far more economic and societal pain on Americans than was warranted.

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Jim and Greg shudder as 3.28 million Americans lost their jobs last week. They also recoil at an alleged plot to bomb a hospital full of COVID-19 patients. But they cheer the U.S. lowering the boom on Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro.

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Member Post

 

Evah. More

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Today, Jim and Greg applaud the practical approach of Dr. Fauci on chloroquine. They also grumble as Nancy Pelosi and Andrew Cuomo are still not sold on the COVID-19 relief bill, and Jim unloads on Bernie for still focusing on the 2020 campaign.

 

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I have a new analysis for you today, of reported COVID-19 total cases and deaths. I decided to perform an overall comparison of the United States and Western Europe, generally defining W. Europe as everything west of the old Iron Curtain. The countries included in the W. Europe totals are Germany, the UK, France, Italy, […]

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It’s all crazy news on Tuesday’s Three Martini Lunch! Join Jim and Greg as they catalogue the irrelevant and expensive Democratic Party wish list that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wanted to promote while holding up vital coronavirus relief for families and businesses and how Pelosi wrongly assumed the media would cover for her. They also roll their eyes as multiple media outlets try to blame President Trump for the death of one man and the illness of the man’s wife after they consumed fish tank cleaner because it contained chloroquine. And they react to Liberty University welcoming students and faculty back to campus while the rest of Virginia and the nation increasingly shut down.

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Coronavirus Graphs Update: Pray for the Big Apple

 

There has been a very significant increase in reported WuFlu cases out of New York City during the last few days. I’ve been monitoring the spread of this disease carefully for a bit over a week, and this new NYC data has been the greatest cause for concern that I have observed. I had to find a new data source to address this, from Johns Hopkins (technical note in the comments).

Pray for New York. Pray for Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio to lead the people of NYC with wisdom and resolve. Pray for President Trump, and other federal authorities, to provide them with the assistance that they may need.

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Member Post

 

This is my first analysis of the WuFlu pandemic focusing specifically on reported deaths and death rates. This report focuses on the same 6 major countries as my other recent reports (the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), plus a special focus on NY City. My data source is Johns Hopkins, for the period […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Coronavirus Overreaction

 

Out of over 367,000 COVID-19 cases reported as of noon March 23, 2020, 16,000 people have died, a rough increase of about 9,500 from the past week. China has contributed about 3,500, a figure that is holding relatively stable — if we are to believe the reporting coming out of the People’s Republic of China — as is Iran’s total of 1,812 deaths (another potentially dubious total). In Spain, the death toll is 2,206. Italy has taken the lead with 6,077 deaths, 85 percent of which are of people over 70, which stems, it appears, from a conscious decision not to supply ventilators to anyone over 60. These four nations make up close to 13,000 deaths or about 82 percent of the total. Taken together, these four countries account for over 13,595 of the 16,097 deaths. The good news here is that the growth rates in both Italy and Spain have turned downward in the past 48 hours.

In my column last week, I predicted that the world would eventually see about 50,000 deaths from the novel coronavirus, and the United States about 500. These two numbers are clearly not in sync. If the first number holds, the total US deaths should be about 4 to 5 percent of that total, or about 2,000–2,500 deaths. The current numbers are getting larger, so it is possible both figures will move up in a rough proportion from even that revised estimate. Indeed, the recent run-ups in Italy and perhaps Spain suggest that those countries have yet to turn the corner.

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Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Member Post

 

Today’s eye-grabbing news (and inspiration for this post) is that the nation’s supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) was depleted during the Obama administration during the H1N1 epidemic (that killed and estimated 12,000) and never restocked. Really? More

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