Tag: coronavirus epidemic

Executive Orders: CDC Rule on Masks On Local Travel

 

I intend to maintain a series of posts on Biden’s executive orders over the length of his term.  In this edition, I’m following up on the CDC implementation of his “Executive Order on Promoting COVID-19 Safety in Domestic and International Travel” from January 21.  The CDC issued a rule on Saturday, January 30 to implement this order.  A Federal Register notice is posted here, with the full 11-page text available here.  But the key part of the order is just two sentences:

People must wear masks that cover both the mouth and nose when awaiting, boarding, traveling on, or disembarking public conveyances. People must also wear masks when entering or on the premises of a transportation hub in the United States.

Coronavirus Update: The US and the Grand Canyon State

 

I have another COVID-19 update for you today, focusing on the U.S. generally, and specifically on my home state of Arizona. I’ve heard that there has been some media focus on Arizona in recent weeks.

My last post was on June 23 (here), with my standard analysis comparing reported COVID-19 deaths in the US and Western Europe. I did run that analysis again today but am not going to post new graphs, as the trends are unchanged.

Member Post

 

I have a new COVID-19 update for you today.  I write on May 17, 2020, using Johns Hopkins data (here) through yesterday, May 16. Reported daily deaths continue to decline, in both the US and Western Europe.  The decline was faster than I expected this week.  Using a 7-day moving average, the US peaked at […]

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I have a COVID-19 update for you, with data from Johns Hopkins (here) through yesterday, May 8, 2020.  There’s been no significant changes since my last report on May 2.  Western Europe and the US each continue to report about 2,000 COVID-19 deaths per day.  The daily average of reported deaths for the past 7 […]

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The Flu, or Not the Flu, That Is the Question

 

Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous rhetoric, or to take arms against a sea of analogies, and by opposing end them.

I remain puzzled about the passions ignited by comparisons of COVID-19 to the flu. Full disclosure: I’m the sort of reckless miscreant who regularly compares COVID-19 to the flu. In fact, I called it the WuFlu in my initial posts on the subject, though I discontinued this practice on March 24, when I found a new data source demonstrating that reported cases in New York City had skyrocketed starting March 19.

Coronavirus Update 5-2: All Quiet on the COVID Front

 

I have a COVID-19 update for you, based on reported death data through yesterday (May 2, 2020). The daily rate of increase in total reported COVID-19 deaths is now under 3% for the US and all of the major nations of Western Europe, down to and including little Luxembourg. Daily reported deaths continue at a relatively low, but significant, level throughout the West, at an average of about 2,000 per day in both the US and Western Europe (the exact figures are 1,802/day in the US and 2,095 in Western Europe, for the past week).

I. Reported Death Data

Member Post

 

In my previous post, Lockdown of Economy: Giving the Virus an Advantage. I argued that practically all of the Western democracies made a huge mistake in emulating the policies of the Chinese Communist Party in shutting down their economies and curtailing the freedom of their citizens. Why did they get it so wrong? A perfect […]

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Against Coronaphobia

 

I have noticed a strange phenomenon among many people. They seem to be unable to calmly and rationally assess the risks of COVID-19, and even to be hostile to any discussion of the risk. I’m going to call this reaction coronaphobia.

A reasonable concern, or even fear, of a new and potentially deadly virus — Chinese or otherwise — is not coronaphobia. It is perfectly legitimate to have some fear of dying in a plague, especially when we’re in the middle of a plague that is killing tens of thousands of people in this country alone. It is perfectly appropriate to wish to take sensible precautions, and to advocate that others take some precautions, perhaps even to make some such precautions mandatory. It is not coronaphobia if you have a different level of risk aversion than a certain cranky, but occasionally humorous, lawyer from Southern Arizona. At least I hope that I am occasionally humorous. I’m probably not as good at diagnosing this in myself, though I’m confident that I’m right about being cranky.

Member Post

 

I previously posted about what I called the “good bug/bad bug” COVID-19 hypothesis on April 9 (here).  “Good” is a relative term here.  The hypothesis is that there are two or more strains of COVID-19, with different levels of lethality.  One possibility is that the “good bug” could have infected places like South Korea and […]

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Forgive me, Ricochetti, for I have sinned.  It’s been 6 days since my last report on COVID-19 deaths in the US and Western Europe. There have been no real surprises since my April 15 post.  The good news is that the daily percentage increase in reported deaths has continued to decline, and is now less […]

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Coronavirus Update 4-19-20: New Data from NYC

 

I have a new report for you today, based on a new data source from the New York City health department, which is now reporting COVID-19 deaths by date of death. This is information that I’ve been hoping to see for some time. I’ll also show you the difference it makes, comparing the date of death data to the prior data set that I was using, which was based on the date of the report of the death.

There are limitations to any data set. One obvious limitation of the date of death data is that it is not necessarily complete, particularly for the most recent few days. In addition, as Mark Camp and others have pointed out, there is a possibility of overcounting because a person might be counted who died with the virus but not of the virus, and as Kozak has pointed out, there is a possibility of undercounting as well, as some COVID-19 deaths could be missed.

Member Post

 

Jonah Goldberg has a new column at National Review (here), titled Cowardice Isn’t Driving the American Response to COVID-19.  Goldberg explains that “the idea that Americans are panicky fraidy-cats strikes me as grossly unfair,” noting “the inspiring stories of courageous health workers and generous citizens” and boldly concluding that “the sacrifices Americans are making in that […]

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Coronavirus Game Changer? The Bendavid/Bhattacharya Study

 

A new study has just been released by Eran Bendavid, Jay Bhattacharya, and colleagues titled “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California” (here).  You may remember Dr. Bhattacharya from Peter Robinson’s interview about 2 weeks ago (here).  This is the study that Dr. Bhattacharya discussed in Peter’s interview, of antibody testing that would establish the number of people who had been infected with COVID-19, which would allow us to estimate how many infections have gone undetected.

The short answer is: a lot.  The study estimates that the true number of infections in Santa Clara County is 50-85 times greater than the number reported from antigen testing (also called PCR-based testing).  The PCR or antigen testing determines whether a person has an active infection at the time of testing.  The antibody testing determines whether a person has previously been infected.  Santa Clara County, by the way, is the southern part of the San Francisco Bay area, centered on San Jose and including Stanford University and Silicon Valley.

China Revises Death Figures

 

Per Worldometer (here) and National Review (here), the ChiComs just updated their death figures for Hubei province (Wuhan’s province). They had previously reported 2,579 deaths in Hubei and increased this figure by 1,290.

This is exactly 50% of the previously reported death total: 2,579 / 2 = 1,289.5, rounded to 1,290.  What a coincidence.

Coronavirus Update 4-15-2020: The Other Guys

 

I have a new COVID-19 update for you, based as usual on the Johns Hopkins data through April 15 (here). As you probably know, I’ve been tracking and graphing reported deaths, and sometimes cases, in the US and the Western European countries. Western Europe is defined as everything west of the old Iron Curtain (other than micro-states, and not including Greece or Iceland).

I call this post “The Other Guys” because I’m going to include some reporting on the smaller countries, which I’ve generally combined into my “Other Western Europe” category.

Coronavirus Update for April 12, 2020

 

Happy Easter, everyone, and happy Passover for our Jewish friends.  Though I’m not quite sure if “happy” is right for Passover, any more than for Good Friday.  They are certainly momentous days, demonstrating the mighty power of El Shaddai to deliver His people from bondage, to Pharoah or to sin, and to save us from the Angel of Death.  I happen to believe them both, with all my heart.

It’s been almost a week since my last report on Death’s latest weapon.  I’ve been monitoring the reports daily, and there have been few changes in the trends, which are favorable in the sense that the worst of the COVID-19 epidemic seems to be over in many places, and close to over in our own country.

Coronavirus Reported Cases About 3% of Actual Cases

 

There is an interesting report out of Germany, from a study in a municipality called Gangelt in Germany, on the Dutch border.  Gangelt is a small place, part of the District of Heinsberg in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia.  North Rhine-Westphalia is mostly the Ruhr, though Heinsberg is a bit east of the Ruhr area proper.  Heinsberg is a small place itself, about 240 square miles (smaller than NYC and about the same size as the incorporated City of Tucson, where I live, though the Tucson metro area is much larger).

I.  About 30 Times More People Had COVID-19 Than Reported

Watching the Celtics Games with Cliffie

 

I haven’t confessed this before. I’ve been worried that Rob would get upset.

In the early ’90s, I used to hang out at this awesome sports bar in Boston to watch the Celtics games. They had a great big-screen TV, which was a pretty new thing at the time. There were these two guys who used to hang out with me, always looking a bit sheepish when they walked in, like they were supposed to be someplace else.