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The big news today is that the US now has more reported COVID-19 cases than any other country. Remain calm. Remember that our rates of infection remain far below those of the two hardest-hit countries, Italy and Spain. The US has about 5.5 times the population of Italy and about 7 times the population of Spain. So it is no surprise that we have the most cases.
I’ve reviewed all of the data for today (March 26) from Johns Hopkins, and there are no significant departures from prior trends.
The US death rate remains quite low, as illustrated by this graph:
You may have trouble finding the trend line for Germany. It is indistinguishable from the line for the US, at this scale, down at the very bottom of the graph.
Italy and Spain remain the countries of greatest concern. Though not apparent from the graph above, the rate of increase in reported deaths has declined in both countries. The daily figures are a bit erratic, so I’ve presented this decline graphically with a data smoothing technique, by using the 4-day moving average:
This graph demonstrates that the increasing death toll in Italy and Spain, though terrible, is not growing exponentially.
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