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On the day Donald Trump was elected president three years ago, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize for economics, wrote this in his New York Times column:
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?
Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.
Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.
Golly. Donald Trump is elected, and the stock market will never recover. That’s quite a prediction, but then again, he is a winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics. And this is his specialty. So there you go.
Ok. Fast-forward three years. I have not yet seen Mr. Krugman’s column discussing today’s stock market:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 28,332.74 on Monday, meaning it has rallied 10,000 points, or more than 54 percent, since Trump’s election victory on November 8, 2016. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained more than 46 percent.
As a winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, I would value Mr. Krugman’s insight into this development. After all, as he says, “this is my specialty.” I suspect he’ll point to Trump’s success in international trade agreements, success in deregulation, and his success in getting the Fed to lower interest rates. Mr. Krugman will probably also comment on the remarkable gains in jobs, and reduction in unemployment (particularly among blacks and other minorities) during Trump’s time in office. I suspect Krugman will also discuss how optimistic the forecasts are for next year’s economy, under Trump’s leadership.
Of course, I didn’t win the Nobel Prize in economics, so I know little of such things.
So I very much look forward to reading Mr. Krugman’s column discussing all this. It’s not in the New York Times today.
I’ll be watching.Published in