Tag: Stock Market

Hubwonk host Joe Selvaggi talks with Matthew Hennessey, Wall Street Journal editor and author of Visible Hand, A Wealth of Notions on the Miracle of the Market, about how the principles of economics manifest themselves in our every day lives and how we can use that insight to better understand our personal and civic choices.

Guest:

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Business Insider an online subscription news service that has been making a name for itself recently with reporting on stock trading by Members of Congress, including their spouses and dependent children. Especially trades that are belatedly reported as required by law. Their extensive coverage resulted from a five-month review of financial disclosures, which uncovered apparent violations of the STOCK […]

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Jen Ross, a former analyst at an all-short hedge fund and current strategy and business intelligence consultant for the US Space Force space program, primarily focused on program strategy and business intelligence. Jen Ross and Carol Roth break down all the technical terms around trading and short-selling and other related Wall Street concepts that have recently been in the news with the GameStop and Reddit drama. Jen and Carol also talk about the issues around the Fed and the broader Main Street vs. Wall Street sentiment, as well as their respective lists on what could tank the stock market.

Plus, a “Now You Know” on how to make sure nobody sits next to you on a plane.

Allison Schrager joins Brian Anderson to discuss economic trends in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, how the stock market has performed during the crisis, and why expensive infrastructure projects are a risky strategy for reviving the economy.

Awaiting Mr. Krugman’s Insights…

 

On the day Donald Trump was elected president three years ago, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize for economics, wrote this in his New York Times column:

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

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I won’t condense all the great comments and musings on other threads about how Trump will be blamed for the violence, whether he started an endless trade war etc. But both have been cited as “able to loose conservatives the election.” My take: Both issues pre-date Trump but are irresistible for critics to tie to […]

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James R. Copland joins Rafael Mangual to discuss how activist investors are turning corporate America’s annual shareholder-meeting process into a political circus.

Most of corporate America is wrapping up the 2019 “proxy season” this month—the period when most publicly traded companies hold their annual meetings. It’s at these gatherings that shareholders can (either directly or by proxy) propose and vote on changes to the company. Since 2011, the Manhattan Institute has tracked these proposals on its Proxy Monitor website. This year’s proxy season has followed a long-term trend: a small group of investors dominates the proceedings, introducing dozens of progressive-inspired proposals on issues ranging from climate change to diversity.

Welcome to the Harvard Lunch Club Political Podcast for May 15, 2019 it is the FREE LUNCH (Yesss!) edition of the show, number 224 (omgggg) with you charmingly lunchable hosts radio guy Todd Feinburg and AI guy Mike Stopa.

This week, we begin with an assessment of the Dems race to the bottom. Who can grovel and apologize in the most humiliating fashion? Beto is in the lead at the moment for his histrionic avowal of white privilege on The View recently. But they are are racing backwards, Red Books in hand, begging to be forgiven for not being sufficiently downtrodden and victimesque.

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I just ask the question to get other Ricochetti who are much better informed about market dynamics and factors influencing them than I even can be to discuss it. For years, I have read in the Handelsblatt, Forbes, et alia that the Dow was overvalued and was due …then overdue…. for a correction. As the bell rings today, […]

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US Home Prices Are Higher Than When the Financial Crisis Started. Here’s Why This Isn’t Worrying.

 

The 10-year anniversary events of the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis keep on coming. And this one is a biggie: It was a decade ago tomorrow, August 9, that investment bank BNP Paribas froze two of its funds because it could not value them, blaming “complete evaporation of liquidity” in the subprime mortgage market.

And in a new report, the firm Capital Economics notes that there are a few similarities between now and then:

Great Crash to Rival ’29?

 

howling-bear-head-tattoo-designThe good news, as Allister Heath puts it, is it’s not yet clear whether this is the beginning of a major recession. It could just be a major correction, right? (This debate has the feeling you have when you live in an earthquake-prone area and the ground rumbles. Was that a foreshock? Maybe the earth just relieved a little excess pressure and now it’ll be okay?)

The bad news is that I think he’s right about what would happen if there were another financial crash. I think it would sink capitalism for good and probably liberal democracy with it:

We are too fragile, fiscally as well as psychologically. Our economies, cultures and polities are still paying a heavy price for the Great Recession; another collapse, especially were it to be accompanied by a fresh banking bailout by the taxpayer, would trigger a cataclysmic, uncontrollable backlash.

A Quick Note on the Odds of a US Recession

 

StocksAs of Friday, the US stock market is down again, losing about 6% for the new year in total. And the most current economic reports are pretty lousy, nudging big banks to lower their GDP forecasts. Here is JPMorgan:

We are lowering our tracking of real annualized GDP growth in Q4 from 1.0% to 0.1%. Two reports out today contributed to this downgraded assessment. First, retail sales in December came in rather shockingly weak, which was accompanied by modest downward revisions to October and November retail sales. Second, the business inventories report for November suggest a fairly aggressive push by business to reduce the pace of stockbuilding last quarter. We now see inventories subtracting 1.2%-points from growth last quarter, offset by a disappointing but not disastrous 1.3% increase in real final sales.

We are also lowering some our outlook for Q1 GDP growth from 2.25% to 2.0%. While the inventory situation should turn to being roughly neutral for growth, the quarterly arithmetic on consumer spending got a little more challenging after this morning’s retail sales figure, which implies flat real consumer spending in December. We now see real consumer spending in Q1 at 2.5%, versus 3.0% previously. We are leaving unrevised our outlook for 2.25% growth over the remaining three quarters of the year. We will discuss in a separate email the policy outlook, which in any event is currently being swayed more by the inflation data than the growth data.

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Are we having fun yet? This morning I spent time trying to get a sense of who thinks the new year financial route will turn around or, as some bears are calling for: “S&P could plunge 75% to 550”. The phone calls with clients and industry friends felt like that moment Roy Scheider said “we’re gonna need a […]

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What’s Driving China’s US Treasury Sell-Off?

 

financial-crisisIt’s natural that some Americans see in the market’s recent convulsions evidence of a deliberate Chinese plan to crash the US economy. Economic warfare was, after all, a favored and often successful tactic of the Soviet Union. But the Soviets always calculated their risks and took logical measures: They moved when they had more to gain than lose. I’m thus more inclined to see in China’s precipitous stock-market decline the folly of attempting to circumvent the laws of economics.

In the past decade, alarmists have warned that China was poised to overtake the US. These warnings are reminiscent of those about Japan in the 1980s and 1990s. Some now believe China owns the US by virtue of its $4 trillion-plus foreign debt holdings. They survey China’s apparently rapid economic growth and conclude that China’s a major, unstoppable economic force.

China had logical economic reasons for accumulating US Treasuries. Despite the destructive economic policies of successive US governments, particularly this one, US Treasuries are still considered the world’s best credit risk. Although the dollar is a sorrowful currency investment, American debt instruments carry little-to-no risk of default. For nations such as China, which during the 1990s was barely credit-worthy and seeking to undertake major development projects with few cash reserves, leverage is the only viable alternative. But obtaining foreign capital investment requires collateral. China had none, save weapons; like the former Soviet Union, it relied upon arms sales to prop up its annual income. Creditors need to know that their investments are reasonably guaranteed in the event of insolvency. A loan backed by US Treasuries is a relatively secure investment.