Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
The End of the Auto Era as We Know It May Be Approaching Faster Than You Think
Bob Lutz is a former vice chairman and head of product development at General Motors. And in this essay for Automotive News, he declares the end of the auto industry as we know it:
It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era. The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile. Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules. The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you’ll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway. . . .
Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future. A minority of individuals may elect to have personalized modules sitting at home so they can leave their vacation stuff and the kids’ soccer gear in them. They’ll still want that convenience. The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways. The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents. . . .
CNBC recently asked me to comment on a study showing that people don’t want to buy an autonomous car because they would be scared of it. They don’t trust traditional automakers, so the only autonomous car they’d buy would have to come from Apple or Google. Only then would they trust it. My reply was that we don’t need public acceptance of autonomous vehicles at first. All we need is acceptance by the big fleets: Uber, Lyft, FedEx, UPS, the U.S. Postal Service, utility companies, delivery services. Amazon will probably buy a slew of them. These fleet owners will account for several million vehicles a year. Every few months they will order 100,000 low-end modules, 100,000 medium and 100,000 high-end. The low-cost provider that delivers the specification will get the business.
Of course don’t forget the second half of the phrase “creative destruction”:
Published in Culture, Economics, TechnologySo auto retailing will be OK for the next 10, maybe 15 years as the auto companies make autonomous vehicles that still carry the manufacturer’s brand and are still on the highway. But dealerships are ultimately doomed. And I think Automotive News is doomed. Car and Driver is done; Road & Track is done. They are all facing a finite future. They’ll be replaced by a magazine called Battery and Module read by the big fleets. The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years.
Florida is 3rd world? (I kid, I kid…)
Getting cars to see is very hard. Turns out seeing is hard. But hey, AI is around the corner and will have completely passed humans by 2050, so why worry? We won’t get to make any choices at all, anyway.
I read a very interesting thread last night from a guy who helps design the logic for self-driving cars. His point was that autonomous cars aren’t subject to the philosophical “Trolley Problem”. Because of the limited amount of data that a car can “know”, in a situation where an accident is likely the only response a driverless car will take is to brake. The objective is to reduce the amount of energy in the crash. It will (with the current designs) never swerve into another lane (although it may swerve back into its lane if the driver is asleep and steering out of the lane into a crash). And in some situations it won’t brake until a crash is unavoidable. Again, the goal is energy reduction. Make the crash survivable. They’re not trying for true AI or even human level perception. Just safe driving.
I wonder if voice commands can override the system.
And if so, what if the system disagrees? :) Which maybe it should sometimes. :)
I also think it will be a hard sell in most places. I keep thinking of the driverless subway trains years ago. They had the technology to build them, but passengers refused to ride them unless there was a human being at the front. :)
I think these cars would work best in planned communities or resorts like Disney World.
A few years ago, some professor proposed that drivers in Southern California be issued bumper stickers displaying that they were only allowed to drive on certain days of the week in order to compel commuters to use alternate and more (un)reliable methods of transportation or to scramble to find car pools. The idea was quickly snuffed out.
Sure the technology will improve. But legislation pushed from eco-maniacal™ policy wonks that mandates that Americans can no longer own and operate their own vehicles is doomed to failure. Having your own car means you are free to travel when and where you like at any time. Without that Americans are rats in a confined and shrinking maze subject to constant tyrannical control by government overlords. Not gonna happen.
To a point @Mendel made a couple pages back, re ABS. I’m all for automation insofar as it makes my life easier as a driver. If ABS helps the car stop when I say “Stop!”, great! If you build a car where I can take a nap on the highway, great! If you then lock down the controls so that all I can do on the highway is take a nap, I have a problem with that. In that instance you’re no longer aiding me, but helping someone else, whether the Taxi Company or the government or whomever.
To the question of cell phones; am I correct in my assumption that the neural networks used in our current state-of-the-art automated cars exists in the cloud? If that’s the case then yes, cell phone coverage is essential. Imagine if the coverage merely lags, and your car decides that it can’t safely operate above 20 mph under those conditions. It slows down, you’re perfectly safe, but you’re getting to your destination ten minutes late.
To the question “Daddy I don’t feel well”, I can’t imagine a self-driving car that also doesn’t accept verbal commands. “Alexa, stop at the next fast food joint” you’d say. “Refilling your medical marijuana prescription” she’d say. It’ll probably be more accurate than that.
To the question of ownership of cars, I don’t see how a self driving car changes that calculation at all. I own a car, I drive it to work. If I wanted to pay for that as a service I’d lease a car instead. I can see the “While I’m in the office, you go off and Uber me up some cash” option being viable, but I think Mr. Pethakoukis undervalues the desire to own your own things.
One more thing. Supposing I commute into the city, and supposing I don’t Uber out my car (high supply of autocars makes the money not much worth it, and some guy spilled his coffee in there last Thursday, so I’m through with that!) I ride in, I get out at work, and I activate the “go home” protocol. No need to find a parking space. It picks me up at night and I ride home. Did you notice that four trips happened there instead of two? That’s twice the fuel consumption, twice the wear-and-tear on the car and the roads, and twice the traffic.
Why does everyone assume self driving cars are necessarily electric?
Actually not even that. Just a viable product to make money on. A few deaths on way or the other is not a big deal if it can be done profitably.
Regarding the hubris of technology futurists, two visual comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtZSCFFIKsk
and…
This story couldn’t have come at a more perfect time!
“Self-smashing car”.
Jeepster. You are showing your age. How many people on Ricochet know what a Jeepster is?
Way to go Rushbabe. You just crashed the OP and negated 161 comments.
Now we need to fix the OP title:
The End of the Auto Era as We Know ItThat Semi May Be Approaching Faster Than You ThinkI had to google Jeepster, but in high school I helped a friend rebuild a 1950’s Willis Wagon. (this was in the 1980s)
I think Lutz is about right. A few points that a lot of you arguing the anti side have left out:
Not sure if serious.
People are biased to overestimate their own competence. If you produced a self driving car that was just as good as the average driver then 70% of people are going to assume they’re better drivers than it. More when you consider how people act; the illusion that giving them a choice in the matter will lead to a better outcome means that people will still want to take the reins, even if they’re reasonably certain the thing is actually better at it than they are.
Completely serious. This is an old coot thread and you know it.
Rudert, you may be right, but I don’t care. Not giving up my car.
Everybody will eventually be dead.
If gasoline prices go up, cars can be modified to run on methane or propane quite easily. Fracking technologies have domestic production of methane expanding bigly. And because methane (natural gas) is primarily used as a home heating fuel, it would be highly difficult to tax. (It was quite common in Canada in the 80s and 90s to do this to avoid fuel taxes)
Costs of cars and the need to finance over longer periods, are caused by 2 things – Government regulation constantly forcing new features and equipment to be standard on all cars (like back up cameras, and air bags) and secondly by the decline of customer credit worthiness. International competition has generally improved the quality of cars. making the longer financing periods less problematic that the would have been 20 or 30 years ago. (when cars – particularly American made – where disposable after 3 -5 years of use)
An all electric car has the problem of battery fatigue will cause the battery pack to eventually fail. This is the most expensive single component of an electric car.
Making a self driving car better than even the worst human driver is incredibly difficult. Especially when you depend only on equipment inside the car, demanding the roads be re-painted in special metallic paints – so the cars can detect lanes even under snow – is unlikely to work. As state finances have left highways a disaster – it would be unreasonable to expect such assistance to be available every where.
No driving is not the most dangerous activity that Americans do. Being a power company lineman, police officer and alter boy are for more dangerous.
I deleted your worst points to make room for my reply in the word count.
Let’s make that an acronym – the OCT – and deem it an official category. Or maybe it’s an official disclaimer?
I am so a crappy driver from a reflexes and ability standpoint.
Therefore, I drive like it, and I take extra time and space. Stategery! That is key. No Left Turns without a light.
Jason,
What you are not getting is that you can’t just install a system that has anything like the ability to reduce fatalities by 10% every year. The thing that just wrecked in Las Vegas within a half an hour of being put into service, had a top speed of 25 mph and was only doing 15 mph. Wide open very low traffic and perfect weather, this thing still wrecked!
Have you ever noticed that software always has a number next to it like Such&such 2.1. The first number represents a major revision of the software that first came out. The number after the decimal represents minor bug fixes that were deemed so critical that they got their own billing. Even a minor bug in this software will kill people. We are many many revisions both major and minor away from just pulling even with the mean Human driver. Up until then, it will be a net loss on the fatality count. Who do you propose to die in your autonomous vehicles? Have you ever heard computer people tell you never to buy the new operating system right when it first comes out. You will be the guinea pig for innumerable bug tests and probably some very needed major revisions.
I’m not saying that it can’t be done. I’m saying that if you really want to climb into one of these highly subsidized amusement park rides that might kill you, fine. Just don’t demand that I’ve got to ride in the damn thing too or demand that my tax dollars pay for it.
Regards,
Jim
The human brain is Mammal version 200000.5 or something
Bryan,
OK, this requires a story. I have no driving special training other than that required to pass the Pennsylvania drivers test when I was 16. When I was 14 I had a subscription to Road & Track. Road & Track had very explicit technical articles on the design of cars and the theory of high-speed driving. When I was 14 I loved this and would read every issue back to front. Later when I got older and found out how much both the car and the insurance was going to cost I somehow lost my enthusiasm.
I was living in a modern apartment complex in eastern PA. From the main road to get to the complex required going a few miles down a black top two-lane road with a speed limit of 45 mph. It was flat and wide open so you could see way down the road ahead of you. There were houses along the road on the right maybe every half mile or so. As I’m driving at about 45 mph, I see not far up ahead a van slowing down coming the other way. I’m getting much closer to him fast and then he stops with his left turn signal on. There is a driveway to a house across the road from him that he obviously wants to turn into. I am very close and he was stopped dead waiting for me to go by. Suddenly as I am practically on top of him he turns right in front of me. I slam the breaks on all four tires screaming. It isn’t going to be enough! I cut the wheel hard right and my big lumbering V8 chevy 4-door turns sideways on the road. This gives him just a second of time to get out of my way. Now the Chevy will start to roll sideways if I don’t do something. I cut the wheel hard left and she straightens out but throws me off the road to the right. I’m on a wet grass field. Now I’ve got nothing. No brakes no steering because I’m sliding on the wet grass. I’m slowing down but go over a small embankment and there’s a telephone pole. I can’t turn and can’t stop. I crack the pole going maybe only 15 mph. I had my belt on and I’m OK. The front of the Chevy looks like crap. I get out of the car and walk back up to the house and glare at the driver of the van who is coming toward me. He tells me he is the minister at a local church and was just coming back from a funeral. He was taking the bereaved family back to their house and he just wasn’t thinking very well. What was there to say. The PA no-fault insurance fixed the Chevy and that was about it.
If I hadn’t cut the wheel hard right I would have hit him broadside at 45 mph and there would have been dead people in the van. If I hadn’t cut the wheel hard left I would have gone into a horizontal roll at 45 mph and I probably wouldn’t be alive to type this right now. Maybe one of those Road & Track articles I read, when I was 14, remained in my memory and kicked in just at the right moment. Or perhaps Gd provided a miracle to save the lives of his absent-minded minister and his already bereaved flock.
All I know is that a little less hubris would be in order.
Regards,
Jim
I’m gonna steal that. Thanks.
(I don’t care about trademarks. )
I will welcome this development with enthusiasm if it hastens the demise of The Fast and The Furious film franchise.
You need to get your testosterone levels checked.
Maybe its time to back to the drawing board:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/08/driverless-shuttle-in-las-vegas-gets-in-fender-bender-within-an-hour/
Before you jump on the idea, that the shuttle was not at fault. I would like to point out – that worst possible (but still sober and awake) driver could have easily avoided this accident.
Just sayin.
Let’s see one of these driverless cars win a Tokyo Drift competition. Now that would be worth seeing.
Wow! I just looked that up and watched Youtube video. Fantastic stuff. Thanks for the intro.
I don’t find this surprising at all. In fact, I am certain that if autonomous vehicles become widespread, we will see numerous accidents that would have almost certainly not occurred with a normal human driver.
At the same time, I think autonomous vehicles will someday surpass humans in safety.
Those two statements are not in contradiction. Nearly every advance in technology which has made us safer went through a shakedown phase in which it caused accidents that would not have otherwise occurred. It’s part of the human development process.
Your sentiment is nearly the exact same criticism that was leveled against airbags when they were still new. Back then, they killed some drivers and passengers who would have otherwise survived. Even today they occasionally malfunction. Yet nobody seriously claims anymore that we’d be safer without them.