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US Home Prices Are Higher Than When the Financial Crisis Started. Here’s Why This Isn’t Worrying.
The 10-year anniversary events of the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis keep on coming. And this one is a biggie: It was a decade ago tomorrow, August 9, that investment bank BNP Paribas froze two of its funds because it could not value them, blaming “complete evaporation of liquidity” in the subprime mortgage market.
And in a new report, the firm Capital Economics notes that there are a few similarities between now and then:
The unemployment rate has fallen towards 4%, which is probably close to its “natural” level. And in order to prevent the economy from overheating, the Fed has been tightening policy for a while. There are also similarities in the financial markets — the valuations of corporate equities and bonds are at comparably-high levels, after rising sharply in prior years.
And the Case-Shiller national home price index is even higher now than it was then:
But here is a big, big difference: The current ratios of home prices to disposable income are “broadly in line with their averages since 1975,” unlike in the mid-2000s. Note this chart:
What a chart! Anyway, CE also notes that “the ratio of mortgage debt service payments to disposable income is only about 4.4%, compared to 7.1% in 2007 … banks have tightened their lending criteria and adjustable rate mortgages are less common…. Banks themselves are also more strictly regulated and better capitalised.”
I would also toss in that while home prices have recovered, homeownership has not. This from Goldman Sachs: “After peaking at an all-time record of 69.4% in 2004, the homeownership rate fell by more than 6 percentage points to a 50-year low early last year. Since then, homeownership has risen 0.8 percentage points (pp) to 63.9%.
Published in Economics
Disposable income measured how?
Median household income of the US is, $53 657.00 (2014) … Taxes have gone up in Illinois, California, NY – plus others that escaped my attention. How can disposable income be up with GDP and wages stagnate while taxes are increasing? A majority of states have household incomes that have not yet recovered to 2007 levels.
Housing prices is something to worry about – inventing a new calculus demonstrating, that this time its different, is foolish.
On a bit of a tangent – but I think the phrase “This time is different” should be considered the most common indicator of a market decline.