North Korea’s Latest Missile Test Sets Off Alarm Bells

 

North Korea tested a missile early Sunday, local time. But unlike so many that have failed shortly after launch or fell harmlessly into the Sea of Japan, this launch is raising alarm bells. Many experts fear the weapon could have a much longer range than other NoKo missiles.

According to reports out of Japan, today’s missile traveled 700 km (430 miles), which isn’t terribly troubling. But it flew for about 30 minutes — a much longer time than would be required using a standard trajectory. Japan also claimed that North Korea fired the missile to a height of 2000 km (1,240 miles), represented by the black line in the graph above.

This means if the missile was fired with a standard trajectory, it would reach a range of 4,500 km (2,800 miles), shown with a red line. That’s a game changer, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, which created the graph.

This range is considerably longer than the estimated range of the Musudan missile, which showed a range of about 3,000 km in a test last year. Guam is 3,400 km from North Korea. Reaching the US West Coast would require a missile with a range of more than 8,000 km. Hawaii is roughly 7,000 km from North Korea.

This missile may have been the new mobile missile seen in North Korea’s April 15 parade. It appears to be a two-stage liquid-fueled missile.

Published in Foreign Policy, Military
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  1. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    Every time we do this, we should pull all our troops back from the DMZ and turn on the RF BARF Guns.  (Broad Application, Radio Frequency)

    • #1
  2. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN

    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    I am always the cheerful one.

    • #2
  3. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    A mobile system? I wonder if one would fit into, say, a standard cargo container. Load it up, sail out into the Pacific. Firing like that with precision would be difficult. It would not, however, be impossible. And if your plan was to go for an EMP burst then precision matters a whole lot less.

    • #3
  4. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    I am always the cheerful one.

    Thinking the same thing I was. Ain’t we a pair?

    • #4
  5. John Davey Member
    John Davey
    @JohnDavey

    Swell.

    • #5
  6. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN

    Someone could make a movie … Missile launcher in a container at sea … Secret agents try to stop it… blah blah … running gun battle/kung fu fist fight on top of the container stack on a ship at sea… blah blah ship explodes…

    • #6
  7. J. D. Fitzpatrick Member
    J. D. Fitzpatrick
    @JDFitzpatrick

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    Someone could make a movie … Missile launcher in a container at sea … Secret agents try to stop it… blah blah … running gun battle/kung fu fist fight on top of the container stack on a ship at sea… blah blah ship explodes…

    You left out the beautiful Korean fifth columnist.

    • #7
  8. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    How much stuff does NK export that mixes in with container ships? They produce nothing. A launcher isn’t going to fit into a container.

    They have declared their hostile intentions over and over; presume malevolent intent based on their government’s statements. They send a vessel east?  Board, investigate, sink. When they squawk, make them prove it happened. Rinse. Repeat.

    • #8
  9. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    James Lileks (View Comment):
    How much stuff does NK export that mixes in with container ships? They produce nothing. A launcher isn’t going to fit into a container.

    And yet if containers go in, containers will come out again. The Pukguksong-2 uses solid rocket fuel, which is handy because liquid rocket fuel is tougher to handle and requires more support equipment to fuel the missile just before use.

    The missile plus its wheeled or tracked launch vehicle wouldn’t fit in a container, but the missile and just enough hardware to shoot it off might.

    I’m just spitballing here.

    • #9
  10. Randy Webster Inactive
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    Where’s the neutron bomb when you need it?

    • #10
  11. Penfold Member
    Penfold
    @Penfold

    They build a carrier, load it up with copies of  B-25s, Find a plucky little guy named Doolittle and….. Oh wait, that’s been done.

    • #11
  12. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    I am always the cheerful one.

    Like the Club K? The Russians have been trying to sell one for years but fortunately, no one has bought one yet, that we know of. Just adding to the cheeriness

    • #12
  13. Chris Campion Coolidge
    Chris Campion
    @ChrisCampion

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    How much stuff does NK export that mixes in with container ships? They produce nothing. A launcher isn’t going to fit into a container.

    They have declared their hostile intentions over and over; presume malevolent intent based on their government’s statements. They send a vessel east? Board, investigate, sink. When they squawk, make them prove it happened. Rinse. Repeat.

    Dude, they put KONG on a boat and he laid waste to Manhattan!  You really need to start re-thinking your geo-strategic priorities.  And how many hyphenated words you choose use in your sentence-structure.

    • #13
  14. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Look at the upside. Let’s say North Korea makes a nuclear strike against the US.

    At most they would have a dozen missiles. Half would misfire. Probably a third of the warheads would fail to detonate. We would lose four cities.

    What four? Take your choice of Honolulu, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Oakland, and Los Angeles*. The way I see it a strike like that would turn four blue states red.

    * Yes, there is also Anchorage, but NoKo would probably forget about it or just figure no one in the US would miss it, anyway.

    Seawriter

    • #14
  15. Chuckles Coolidge
    Chuckles
    @Chuckles

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Look at the upside. Let’s say North Korea makes a nuclear strike against the US.

    At most they would have a dozen missiles. Half would misfire. Probably a third of the warheads would fail to detonate. We would lose four cities.

    What four? Take your choice of Honolulu, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Oakland, and Los Angeles*. The way I see it a strike like that would turn four blue states red.

    * Yes, there is also Anchorage, but NoKo would probably forget about it or just figure no one in the US would miss it, anyway.

    Seawriter

    And make NK glow in the dark.

    • #15
  16. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Chuckles (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Look at the upside. Let’s say North Korea makes a nuclear strike against the US.

    At most they would have a dozen missiles. Half would misfire. Probably a third of the warheads would fail to detonate. We would lose four cities.

    What four? Take your choice of Honolulu, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Oakland, and Los Angeles*. The way I see it a strike like that would turn four blue states red.

    * Yes, there is also Anchorage, but NoKo would probably forget about it or just figure no one in the US would miss it, anyway.

    Seawriter

    And make NK glow in the dark.

    Well . . . yeah. Didn’t think I needed to mention that.

    Seawriter

    • #16
  17. OccupantCDN Coolidge
    OccupantCDN
    @OccupantCDN

    J. D. Fitzpatrick (View Comment):

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    Someone could make a movie … Missile launcher in a container at sea … Secret agents try to stop it… blah blah … running gun battle/kung fu fist fight on top of the container stack on a ship at sea… blah blah ship explodes…

    You left out the beautiful Korean fifth columnist.

    Its the first draft… The romantic interests and comedy are covered by the blah blah … Lets face it – when we go see an action thriller movie, most of the dialogue could be phoned in by Charlie Brown’s teacher.

    • #17
  18. Randy Webster Inactive
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    Chuckles (View Comment):
    And make NK glow in the dark.

    They need the help.  Have you seen those night-time satellite pictures?

    • #18
  19. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    I am always the cheerful one.

    I’m not sure, but I suspect launching from a container ship adds complexity to the endeavor.

    • #19
  20. Publius Inactive
    Publius
    @Publius

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    I am always the cheerful one.

    I’m thinking that was be enough of an anomaly that we’d pick up on it pretty quickly given that we are likely watching anything coming into and out of North Korean ports pretty closely.  I’m assuming this is one of the primary missions of the United States Navy in regards to that area.  They have a robust tool set given what we have for submarines and patrol aircraft.   Throw in the United States Air Force’s abilities in this area (space and air intelligence gathering) and whatever kung-fu the NSA/CIA is throwing down for signals and human intelligence and you’d hope we have something like this covered.

    • #20
  21. Doug Watt Member
    Doug Watt
    @DougWatt

    The timing of the test was interesting. I believe it came after the new President of South Korea was saying that he would like a better relationship with North Korea. That’s rather like a group of women saying they would like a better relationship with Ted Bundy.

    • #21
  22. Hugh Inactive
    Hugh
    @Hugh

    There is a new president in south Korea.  The natural North Korean response would be a missile launch to set the stage for potential future negotiations (or just to get the attention of the president).

    Without some kind of dramatic change in north-south relations at Some point open conflict seems to be inevitable.

    • #22
  23. Penfold Member
    Penfold
    @Penfold

    Publius (View Comment):
    I’m assuming this is one of the primary missions of the United States Navy in regards to that area.

    Maybe we should put the Navy on border patrol.  How deep is the Rio Grande again?

    • #23
  24. Randy Webster Inactive
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    Penfold (View Comment):

    Publius (View Comment):
    I’m assuming this is one of the primary missions of the United States Navy in regards to that area.

    Maybe we should put the Navy on border patrol. How deep is the Rio Grande again?

    If it’s navigable, doesn’t that make it a Coast Guard bailiwick?

    • #24
  25. Eustace C. Scrubb Member
    Eustace C. Scrubb
    @EustaceCScrubb

    Looks like a job for Team America: World Police!

    • #25
  26. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Cato Rand (View Comment):

    OccupantCDN (View Comment):
    IF they hid the launcher on a container ship, a boat in the middle of the ocean – far from any legal jurisdiction to search/seize could launch a surprise attack on either or both coasts.

    I am always the cheerful one.

    I’m not sure, but I suspect launching from a container ship adds complexity to the endeavor.

    Not much more than launching from a mobile land transporter.

    That’s why I’m worried about EMP. Aim for Needles … hit Elko … no big deal. A vast part of the country gets to relive the 18th century. No electricity, therefore no pumped water and no refrigeration and no gas pumps. Most if not all electronic devices destroyed. No phones, no radio, no internet … for the back-to-basics types it will be a real party, until the food runs out.

    • #26
  27. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    I am not a rocket scientist by any means but some seems wrong about  the distance in altitude that this rocket traveled. It would be well out of the atmosphere at ten miles high let alone 1200 miles. It would then need to re- enter without burning up. This IMHO beyond NK capabilities. Where is anonymous when you need him?

    • #27
  28. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    I don’t expect President Trump to do anything. But if he’s not the one to obliterate the Nork government, then it’s a fair bet that no president ever will.

    • #28
  29. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Percival (View Comment):
    … for the back-to-basics types it will be a real party, until the food runs out.

    Gotta head to Costco and re-stock the emergency canned goods. Dust off those pepper food-storage books. Move the firewood into the garage so no one can steal it. Got the water bob for the bathtub, but that won’t last long. Is it possible to purify Chicago river water? Hmmm.

    More importantly, must learn to shoot.

    • #29
  30. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    … for the back-to-basics types it will be a real party, until the food runs out.

    Gotta head to Costco and re-stock the emergency canned goods. Dust off those pepper food-storage books. Move the firewood into the garage so no one can steal it. Got the water bob for the bathtub, but that won’t last long. Is it possible to purify Chicago river water? Hmmm.

    More importantly, must learn to shoot.

    There isn’t a lot of water in Chicago River water.

    • #30
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