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Don’t Overstate Donald Trump’s Victory
Many pixels have been spilled and there’s been much talk in the last six weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the larger implications, how everything has shifted, and the ways in which America has changed forever.
Slow down.
First, I heard the same thing in 2004 after George W. Bush was reelected. This was supposed to be a generational shift, setting up Republican dominance for a generation. (Yeah, not so much.) Then I heard in again in 2008 and 2012. Those elections changed everything and America as we knew it was over. (Yeah, not so much.) Indeed, coming into the 2016, I heard much fretting from conservatives about how, because of demographic changes, there probably would never be another Republican president. Demography is destiny, after all. (Yeah, not so much.)
Now I’m hearing it again. The Democrats as a party are over. They’ve lost the white working class forever. They’re now limited to a few enclaves on the coasts. And so on and so on. There’s a natural tendency to think that everything has changed. Well it hasn’t. Donald Trump scored an upset to be sure, but he didn’t win big.
Yes, he won a majority of the America
a majority of those who voted
a plurality of those who voted
just enough people in the right combination of states to eek out a victory. But despite Trump’s claims, his was not an “historic electoral landslide.” He ranks 46th out of 58 in percentage of the electoral vote and far below the historical average.
And like it or not, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by two million votes. Ah, yes, but he won 30 states! And look at that county-by-county map! It’s a sea of red! America has embraced Trump. Yeah, the thing is that those blue islands are where all the people are.
I count 11 states, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska, where Trump’s vote total was less than 769,743. What’s significant about that number? Well, 769,743 is the number of votes Trump got in just Los Angeles county. Trump got more votes in that one county, which he lost by 50 points, than he got in any of those 11 states.
So what’s my point in mentioning all this?
First, there wasn’t some grand Trump earthquake that changed everything. He was running against the most unpopular woman and America. And together, Trump and Clinton were so unpopular that two million people didn’t even vote on the presidential line. Did lots of disenfranchised Rust Belt white people turn out for Trump? They sure did. Some 62 million people voted for Donald Trump. But some 74 million people voted against him.
Second, while it didn’t determine the winner, the popular vote is not without significance. One of the things we learned from the 2000 election is the symbolic importance of the popular vote. And 54 percent of the people came out to vote, voted against Trump. What does that mean? It means he doesn’t have much of a mandate. It would behoove the new President to tread lightly, to think of the 54 percent of folks who voted against him, and to be the President of the whole nation.
Am I suggesting he go all squishy? Certainly not. But when you poke people in the eye over and over, you’re going to create problems for yourself. And if you’re going to be the President of the whole nation, you’d do well, especially after this very contentious election cycle, and an electoral victory where 74 million people voted against him, not to be intentionally antagonistic.
I suggest President Trump learn from the example of his predecessor. Barack Obama had a much larger mandate. For eight years he engaged in scorched earth tactics. He spit in people’s faces. He tried to force through legislation, without trying to compromise, without trying to reach out to the tens of millions of people who voted against him.
And what did he get for his troubles? A shattered party and a legacy that’s in ashes.
Do I expect Donald Trump to heed this suggestion or anything similar? No, of course not. A man who brags about the size of the penis in front of a national debate audience doesn’t do modesty.
But if he were wise, he might consider it.
Published in General
But isn’t “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead” the exact way Obama (and Pelosi/Reid) put their party through a wood chipper? If dems regained popularity and the levers of power wouldn’t they simply redo everything republicans did, only worse? Do we want the very nature of our government to change entirely with every party change in Washington?
I wish I had read this before responding to Mr. Lockett’s question, because it shows how to care about the people rather than the professional Republican class.
John Adams was called hermaphroditical.
Fair enough, I myself believe that Trump has performed above my expectations with his slate of appointments. There are a number of issues I remain extremely wary of and I think it’s worth keeping in mind that one of the reasons many Reluctant Trumpers stated for voting for Trump is that he would be easier to control than Hillary. If we are to hold to that reasoning then it stands that we shouldn’t overplay an extremely narrow victory nor should we ignore valid conservative criticisms of the man and his policies. So far I haven’t seen any skepticism from his most ardent supporters, and even the reluctant supporters have refused to acknowledge valid criticisms – hence the fear that the right might be overplaying its hand.
Exactly.
I didn’t see much difference between KP and Jamie. (And I agree with both of them, for the record.)
Obama was wrong. Maybe I’m wrong. Worth a try. My hunch is if we get full Trump for the next 8 years, he will end on a high note and we will then get full Pence for another 8. Obama was TOTALLY oversold. Completely underdelivered. The more we got to know Obama, the more we realized how incapable he is. I think it’s the opposite with Trump. People are going to be pleasantly surpirised. Just look at the team he’s assembling! With Obama, it was all about Obama. With Trump, it’s all about the team. Prepare for success!
Oh yes. You are very right. However we must separate true dissent from partisan knee-jerk pushback/propaganda. The media is existentially hostile to Republicans and conservatism and Trump. This entree things can be discrete, or Already many are spending what’s left of their credibility – their last coins and pocket-change. We have just seen two weeks of focus on a non-story. Those ‘fake news’ sites I go to all said don’t worry nothing of the sort will happen. The MSM said no such thing and ginned-up the story as much as possible. This Russian paranoia is also hurting them.
Agreed, but recent experience shows that there is too much of a tendency to dismiss all criticism, including criticism from the right, as the latter.
Boy, do I hope that the author and some of the NT crowd read your comment. It contains the powerful word “wrong”, so maybe they can do some introspection.
As I’ve said in other venues about the likes of Erik the Red, most of NR’s fabulists, and other hardcore NT’s, if they can just bring themselves to practice some humility and apologize to those they’ve unnecessarily alienated, then we can have a basis for comity in our tent.
It is being delightfully memed.
Many have, and were rebuffed. As I said in another comment, beams aplenty and all around.
I’m one of those hard core NT types. I’ve cheered good things (like most of his appointments), but I reserve the ability to criticize those things with which I disagree. No elected official is above criticism. Not Bush, not Obama, and not Trump. If I understand what you are saying correctly, the call is to time and frame the criticism so that it does not empower the left, the real enemies of freedom. I am on board with that idea.
The schism continues. I don’t see the NeverTrumpers and/or Reluctant Trumpers as being the only ones who should consider the need to “practice some humility and apologize to those they’ve unnecessarily alienated . . . ”
I think asking people to apologize for standing up for what they believe in is ridiculous. All the reasons why most NT’s didn’t vote for Trump didn’t suddenly disappear because he won an election.
A month and a half ago I would have been enthusiastically agreeing with you. The weekend before the actual election I wrote a post predicting that no matter who won it was still going to be a loss for conservatism.
I’m no longer so sure. I thought the best case scenario would be for Trump to surround himself with the right people and listen to them, and it looks like he really may have done so. He’s got a team that’s drastically different from what we would have seen if Hillary or any other Democrat had been elected. It’s made me much more optimistic about what the next four years could bring. Mattis for Defense, Sessions for Attorney General, a school choice-advocate for Education, a climate change skeptic for Environmental Protection, Rick Perry for Energy, etc. There’s a lot to love there.
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Which isn’t to say there’s not causes for concern. Trump still likes to tweet outrageous stuff. I know his defenders like to say this helps in distracting the media and throwing them off-balance. Which may be true, but I still can’t get behind the idea that it’s a good thing for the U.S. President to throw out hyperbolic statements and half-truths on a regular basis. I don’t like the talk of another stimulus package or punitive tariffs against businesses who move operations overseas.
But no president is perfect. And there’s been enough good mixed in with the bad (more that I’ve felt good about than fearful about), that I think it’s not delusional to feel optimistic about what’s to come. Let’s see what Trump does once he’s actually in office.
He’s got step 1 down, step 2 remains uncertain.
Hillary and the screeching left is not the standard by which we measure.
Yes. Agreed. There’s also still a lot unknown. Trump hasn’t been sworn in. He hasn’t actually done anything yet. There is more cause for optimism and hope, but there remains zero cause for cheers or boos.
Ha! We were writing at the same time apparently.
The effects of Democrat policies, chiefly Obamacare and economy-stifling regulations, were felt. If we believe the effects of eliminating many programs and regulations would be beneficial (perhaps after a couple years of harsh withdrawal), then our radical actions will be perceived differently. Republicans have to control the narrative, but to some extent the results speak for themselves.
And yes, we want the nature of government to change radically with every administration. That is the only way a majority of voters will realize that government is currently too powerful. But, again, Republicans would have to be better at the media game.
Also, it’s now or never. If Republicans can’t restrain government while they control all branches, then they never will. Wasting this opportunity on mild and insignificant reforms will devastate faith in the party and condemn them in the next election.
Victor Davis Hanson: Take a Bow
Agreed. The Republicans MUST deliver within the next couple of years.
I prefer to be prepared for whatever comes.
We’ve had 8 years to get used to it. The sad thing is those Republicans who let it go when Obama did it, but are now all upset when someone elected under the R banner does it.
The nation must take its medicine, agreed, but there’s an enormous difference between an oral medication and a suppository.
Hypocrisy swings both ways on this issue.
One thing that I do have concerns about though…cutting the federal government down by necessity means laying people off. While it does NEED to happen, I do think it’s going to need to be done gradually and cleverly. Too many government employees losing their jobs at once and going on unemployment does not equal future electoral success in my opinion. It’s gonna be tricky and I hope the current GOP team can pull it off.
What Republicans let it go when Obama did it? All the conservative commentators I read while visiting Ricochet or NRO or PJ Media during the Obama years were pretty united in their condemnation of all the stupid stuff he’d say and tweet.
Or do you mean Republican congressmen specifically?
I mean people in high enough positions that the media would get all upset when they would call attention to Obama’s hyperbole and conspiracy theories. That of course includes members of Congress. The situation isn’t very symmetrical, so it’s necessary for the good guys to troll the media. Of course not in the bad sense that they’re only trying to get a reaction and nothing more, but that they’re trying to clarify the national discussion.
Ok Fred we got it… Trumps an a$$. Anything to do with Trump makes it a$$tasticly bad. Ok, we got it.