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Don’t Overstate Donald Trump’s Victory
Many pixels have been spilled and there’s been much talk in the last six weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the larger implications, how everything has shifted, and the ways in which America has changed forever.
Slow down.
First, I heard the same thing in 2004 after George W. Bush was reelected. This was supposed to be a generational shift, setting up Republican dominance for a generation. (Yeah, not so much.) Then I heard in again in 2008 and 2012. Those elections changed everything and America as we knew it was over. (Yeah, not so much.) Indeed, coming into the 2016, I heard much fretting from conservatives about how, because of demographic changes, there probably would never be another Republican president. Demography is destiny, after all. (Yeah, not so much.)
Now I’m hearing it again. The Democrats as a party are over. They’ve lost the white working class forever. They’re now limited to a few enclaves on the coasts. And so on and so on. There’s a natural tendency to think that everything has changed. Well it hasn’t. Donald Trump scored an upset to be sure, but he didn’t win big.
Yes, he won a majority of the America
a majority of those who voted
a plurality of those who voted
just enough people in the right combination of states to eek out a victory. But despite Trump’s claims, his was not an “historic electoral landslide.” He ranks 46th out of 58 in percentage of the electoral vote and far below the historical average.
And like it or not, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by two million votes. Ah, yes, but he won 30 states! And look at that county-by-county map! It’s a sea of red! America has embraced Trump. Yeah, the thing is that those blue islands are where all the people are.
I count 11 states, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska, where Trump’s vote total was less than 769,743. What’s significant about that number? Well, 769,743 is the number of votes Trump got in just Los Angeles county. Trump got more votes in that one county, which he lost by 50 points, than he got in any of those 11 states.
So what’s my point in mentioning all this?
First, there wasn’t some grand Trump earthquake that changed everything. He was running against the most unpopular woman and America. And together, Trump and Clinton were so unpopular that two million people didn’t even vote on the presidential line. Did lots of disenfranchised Rust Belt white people turn out for Trump? They sure did. Some 62 million people voted for Donald Trump. But some 74 million people voted against him.
Second, while it didn’t determine the winner, the popular vote is not without significance. One of the things we learned from the 2000 election is the symbolic importance of the popular vote. And 54 percent of the people came out to vote, voted against Trump. What does that mean? It means he doesn’t have much of a mandate. It would behoove the new President to tread lightly, to think of the 54 percent of folks who voted against him, and to be the President of the whole nation.
Am I suggesting he go all squishy? Certainly not. But when you poke people in the eye over and over, you’re going to create problems for yourself. And if you’re going to be the President of the whole nation, you’d do well, especially after this very contentious election cycle, and an electoral victory where 74 million people voted against him, not to be intentionally antagonistic.
I suggest President Trump learn from the example of his predecessor. Barack Obama had a much larger mandate. For eight years he engaged in scorched earth tactics. He spit in people’s faces. He tried to force through legislation, without trying to compromise, without trying to reach out to the tens of millions of people who voted against him.
And what did he get for his troubles? A shattered party and a legacy that’s in ashes.
Do I expect Donald Trump to heed this suggestion or anything similar? No, of course not. A man who brags about the size of the penis in front of a national debate audience doesn’t do modesty.
But if he were wise, he might consider it.
Published in General
@fredcole, I agree that the heady days post-victory and before real responsibility occurs are always full of over-optimistic prognostications. Personally I did not support Trump in the primaries, but I was a #NeverHillary, so I have a very low bar for Trump. If he (in conjunction with the Congress) (1) puts an originalist on the Court, (2) lowers the tax burden on the middle class while simplifying the tax code, (3) rolls back Obama regulation, (4) rolls back government control of health care, and (5) doesn’t trigger a nuclear war, I’m good. Yes, a thorough disinfecting of the bureaucracy, the dismantling/incarceration of the Clinton Criminal Conspiracy Inc, the Wall, the defunding of Planned Parenthood and Sanctuary Cities, the reduction of the national debt, term-limits, and all the aspirations of limited government, would be wonderful. But if they don’t happen I won’t think the Trump Presidency was a failure.
That’s a big ask for any President. I hope he can accomplish all that but even an extremely popular President would be hard pressed to get it all.
I think the most likely thing isn’t on your list and would be disasgsdius: pulling out of NAFTA.
Winning is winning and whining is whining. I can tell the difference. Winning is when there is smiling. Whining is when excuses abound and you denigrate the winning.
Donald Trump won.
You see no value in the President in a representative Republic taking into account the nature of that win when he hopes to govern? Tell me how well that worked out for Obama when ran roughshod over all his opponents and acted like a wannabe dictator?
I think we should attempt to see the nuance in Fred’s position here, he has very clearly stated that he does not think Trump should suddenly become a wilting flower, only that he should know both the limitations of his office, and of politics in general.
If his rhetoric about a landslide means he is going to behave as if it was a landslide, I’m perfectly okay with that. It doesn’t make much sense numbers wise, but my hunch is that if he behaves like there was a landslide this time (energetically completing items off his promised todo list), 2 years from now and 4 years from now there will be actual landslides in his favor.
Some good points and some cliches. No one has been or is going to be president of the whole nation. Not Washington, certainly not Lincoln, and not FDR or Reagan.
Obama’s problem was not entirely tactical, not even principally tactical.
Obama’s problem was being a leftist whose ideas fail wherever and whenever they are put into play. Had he used uncompromising legislative and unprecedented executive action to focus immigration on high capital (including human capital) immigrants, slash corporate taxes, aggressively pursue domestic energy production and deregulate regional medical monopolies, style points wouldn’t matter that much.
As important as not overstating Trump’s victory, however, is not understating Clinton’s loss. In five hours, Barack Obama went from a transformational president destined to name a generation of American history to a failed footnote.
A Clinton win would have cemented Obamacare, executive amnesties, leftish control of SCOTUS and a flood of appointments to the district and circuit courts which would have acted like Stratego bombs on state attorney general activism for a decade. It would have returned the Dems to playing between their 30 and our 40 where they often outplay us, sometimes badly.
The loss has been shattering for them. They are performing a comic fumble video between their goal line and the 20 and may for years. Tom Perez vs. Keith Ellison. To continue the football theme, that’s the political version of the 1978 Giants Joe Pisarcik vs. Jerry Goldsteyn controversy.
Can Trump govern like a Reagan conservative with an actual Reagan friendly Congress which the Gipper never had? I don’t know. He could fumble it all away.
On this sad day, where Hillary lost the electoral college, exactly eighteen years from Bill’s day of impeachment, we all extend to you, Fred:
I think the president can withdraw America from NAFTA sans Congress. I don’t see it happening, but it would be a big problem.
It depends on what he accomplishes. He certainly has an opportunity to build on his coalition. But it’s at least as likely that he will overplay his victory. Mr. Cole, Jr. is right to point out that the previous Dem & GOP administrations both did that. American partisans tend to do that out of a desperate hope that the nation really & truly loves them…
(1) is easy-peasy. So’s (3). No legislation needed either way & the GOP holds the Congress. If Dems want to make trouble, the filibuster will go. Who knows the consequences… (5) shouldn’t be part of the conversation, but Mr. Trump is loud & proud about being unpredictable, so there it is, because there he is!
(4) is tricky. He clearly has a mandate to replace Obamacare with something better for the people. What that is, who knows? He was not voted on a platform of repeal or retrenching the entitlement-welfare state! He’s supposed to be a man of the people… He might be able to sell some conservative ideas, but he cannot scare people about losing healthcare. & lots of people are already suffering in the chaos & confusion of Obamacare…
The economy depends on (2). If the Silicon Valley & Big Business meetings & appointments suggest America is open for business again, then that’s a bet on growth. He’s talked about some kind of tax cuts for business, too.
Sorry, not sorry.
https://youtu.be/6Q3w5X9ZrBM
I wonder if anyone’s coming up with a song about the 30 states that voted for Mr. Trump, sort of like I’ve been everywhere man…
Is it also the case that we should not overstate the horrors of the upcoming Trump administration?
(Asking for a friend.)
Yes, it is. Maybe this is a good chance for us all to learn how much of American government runs as institutions.
The popular vote is without significance. It has about as much importance in determining the winner/loser as yards gained in a football game. Since no campaign is run strictly to capture the popular vote (“Mr. Trump, our polling shows that you must spend more time and money in California. Not!”), it would be nice if those seeking to delegitimize Trump’s win would find another, more meaningful avenue (Russian hacking?). I thought we’d resolved this, but apparently not.
Don’t worry Fred, no one will ever accuse you of overstating his victory…
Here is someone who got 40% of the popular vote and 59% of the electoral college.
Indeed he can.
I do see it happening. Not only has he repeatedly promised to do it on day one. But his horrible trade protectionism is the only thing he’s actually been consistent on for the last 25 years.
Winners are grinners!
But please, don’t make America grate, just great.
You were making a semi-coherent argument and then you did this:
This is a completely false statement and should be retracted. Trump was mocked by someone for his small hands which is supposed to co-relate to penis size. Trump said he was just ‘fine’ in that department.
Some people simply do not understand visceral politics. You cannot allow people to say certain things, no matter how absurd or untrue and just walk away. One’s honor (and yes penis size) must be defended. These people are schoolyard bullies and when they see weakness they continue to attack. Bush allowed all kinds of toxic attacks to go unanswered, and that begat a narrative that allowed a two-bit community organizer to win the Presidency, whose margin of victory was also a function of the Bush legacy and the doddering fool of an opponent.
In any case, the word ‘bragged” renders the statement false, and it reveals the profound misunderstanding and odd fixations of the poster.
And who did he defeat? Who did his supporters defeat? Who did Trump voters defeat?
Hillary and the left? Yes.
But also conservatives and the right.
The optimism is based on the idea that since the left lost, conservatives must have won. But we didn’t. We got our hats handed to us.
It is time to wake up.
It’s interesting how every other presidential candidate, probably in history, was able to avoid talking about the size of their penis in a nationally televised debate.
Wait for the international edition. Wait for the swordfighting at the UN–it’ll be epic, a la Errol Flynn!
Marco Rubio was the guy who brought it up. His campaign went flaccid shortly after. Is this really where you want to hang your hat?
Your knowledge of history is suspect. A quick search found this:
Trump got an electoral victory with less enthusiasm from his base than Bush did in 2000. Bush was running against the successor of a popular president who served over almost eight years of continued prosperity thanks to Al Gore’s invention of the internet. The climate was different than now (we hadn’t had so much Global Warming), and Bush had a much more uphill climb than a typical GOP candidate would have had this year.
Trump’s uphill battles were mostly of his own making. He had more in his favor: the economy has been sluggish at best, and for many outside urban areas it’s been in decline. Obamacare remains wholly unpopular. Neither party has been able to present immigration reform without serious opposition on either side of the aisle and the President’s solution was to pretend that opposition doesn’t exist. Finally, Clinton was perhaps the most corrupted nominee in recent memory and the more that was revealed, the more people realized that such accusations were pretty much on the money.
Trump’s electoral victory is a win, but it’s not nearly as resounding as some would like to think.
Personally, I think he’s got four years, tops, to do anything. Unless he can prove an effective and decisive leader who can bring the country together, he just won’t last. He’s demonstrated none of that. That’s my prediction.
I’m wondering how we ever managed to elect a chief executive without that data as well.
You’re right. I don’t remember Jefferson saying that in a nationally televised debate.
@fredcole I agree with you that Trump doesn’t represent a sea change. But I do believe that there is real significance to his election. I just finished the last issue of Foreign Policy magazine. The whole thing is dedicated to populism. When you look at Trump (middle right’ish poplulist) and Bernie (left populist) then you’ve got a fairly strong populist movement. Where that leads is anyone’s guess. While I didn’t go through a populist period in my youth I did got through a hard-core libertarian phase. There’s a sobering dawn that comes when you realize that your beliefs don’t really work in either theory or reality. That awakening is coming.