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What if he Actually Wins?
One of the constants of the political coverage this last year has been “Donald Trump cannot win because… ” Anyone who offered a scenario contrary to the cited “because” was self-delusional, a wishful thinker, or just plain stupid. And through it all, Trump just kept advancing, advancing, and advancing right through to the nomination. The conventional wisdom may still hold and he may yet lose in a landslide in November. But what if he does win? What if the conventional wisdom is actually a conventional delusion?
There will be plenty of theories to be sure. It was a year of historically horrible candidates. The vote was too fractured. Too many of this or that faction stayed home. Too many of this or that faction showed up. But like the financial commercials say, past results should never be seen as a guarantee of future returns.
In all honesty, I don’t think anyone knows. Circumstances constantly change. There were newspaper-only elections, radio elections, television elections and, now, internet and social media elections. In 1896, the winning candidate never left his house. In my lifetime alone, three major “that’ll never happen” presidents happened: We elected a Catholic, a divorced man, and a non-white.
The truth is that every election is unique and the circumstances that align the electorate are hard to repeat or predict. I don’t know what kind of president Donald Trump would make, I only know that if he gets a chance to show it, there’s a lot of people who make their living professing to know how to win elections are going to look unconventionally stupid.
Published in Politics
“Supporter” is pushing it. But if I was and I had the T shirt I guess I’d wear it at home only, like I do with my T with an imprint of the Israel flag! I’d say it’s a toss-up as to which would be more dangerous. Probably the flag I think.
What if there is a “monster vote” and he wins in a landslide?
“Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in registering voters in three battleground states and kept their razor-thin advantage in Iowa — encouraging news for Donald Trump eight weeks before Election Day.
Republicans added hundreds of thousands of voters to the rolls since 2012 in states including Florida and Arizona, and narrowed the gap in North Carolina, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. In Iowa, Republicans prevented Democrats from surpassing them, aided by a court ruling upholding a ban on voting by ex-felons, who often register as Democrats.”
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states
and
“Trump’s effect down-ballot, Warner said is likely helping the GOP. According to the Ohio sec. of state’s office, more than 1 million Ohio voters have gone from unaffiliated, or Democratic, to Republican.”
How is that a change?
I still don’t think he will win via demographics, organization, the electoral map, and high unfavorables. But if he is President, it will most likely have more to do with Hillary losing (and the reverse is also true). Trump doesn’t seem to be persuading many people that he would be a competent let alone good president with good policies that he will implement ably. However, more and more people are becoming convinced Hillary is untrustworth and unhealthy.
Are monsters allowed to vote?
I loathe Trump but this argument does nothing for me. They swooned overseas in 2008. We need an American president who has America’s interests at heart.
His ground game is in the form of his enormous rallies. He actually meets people. The entire string of failed opponents of the Left have followed the Rovian rules, to no avail.
Last gasp?
In my taxonomy I’m genus “liberal”, species “conservative”. That’s a rarity here, so I will reveal my failings and my peculiar thought process for your amusement. The below are only my opinions, whatever the sentence style.
First, I am one of that band of fools being dragged in chains here behind the victors in their triumph :-) I thought that Trump could never win! Here’s why.
I view liberalism, or “America”, before circa 1900 as a beautiful but imperfect golden band in the otherwise wretched cloth coming off the loom. This widening band had first appeared as a single thread millennia ago. It’s been narrowing since then.
That someone of Mrs. Clinton’s character and designs on our system of government could be considered for high office was for us an indication of just how far and how fast “America” had shrunk in America. It certainly wasn’t a surprise.
We were stunned in the case of Trump’s victory only by how rapidly this change is now occurring, how far it’s progressed without our seeing it, even though it was in plain sight.
We know what is going to be done to us, and to our reputations, churches, families, property, and prosperity, and finally to our national security, and aren’t afraid nor ashamed. We are afraid for our countrymen because we know the true nature of the brutish forces which our short-lived system of self-government was holding at bay.
DocJay—if Hillary wins, we all have to be as loudly and publicly critical of her as we can possibly be, so the IRS and all other punishment machines get overwhelmed. Fill the jails! Jam the system! Force them to play whack-a-deplorable!
I’m more inclined, by the way, to try to find silver linings in either case. If Trump wins, it is my fervent hope that Democrats suddenly discover an enthusiasm for limited executive power, and reinforce the rules that should have prevented Obama (and, admittedly, before him GWB) from ruling by decree. Heck, if Trump makes noises about siccing the IRS or the Justice Department on somebody, they might just start talking about, y’know, Freedom of Speech, States Rights, etc.
Trump seems to be a pretty zippy old guy, but he’s still an old guy, and Hillary is…well, bless her heart, I hope she’s okay in spite of appearances, but she certainly doesn’t look like a two-termer at this point. So if Hillary wins, the silver lining would be…what? That she’ll preside over an increase in crime and civil unrest at home and mean little wars and rumors of wars abroad, and she won’t be able to blame disasters on her predecessor, maybe?
In Trump’s America,
sharkOrca jumps you.I’d expect the good, the bad and the ugly.
The good: solid SCOTUS picks, a federal judiciary restocked by Sessions and Grassley (count on Trump laziness here), pro-growth and pro-family tax reforms (now featuring Rubio/Lee reforms) and immigration compromise which will please few but kick the Dems hoped-for vote windfall twenty years down the road.
The bad: The first TMZ administration, making the Obama regime look regal. Every cultural/political controversy will feature Trump’s tough guy drama queening. Dem deficits replaced with GOP debt.
The ugly (but delicious): The Corbyn-like crackup of the democrats. How do they reform? In 1992 and 2008 they made smart obvious plays. In 2017 they’ll go lefter and loonier. Triple down on BLM and their silly sexual agenda. Sure, demographic future of the Dems after a Schumer amnesty and felon voting rights bill looks promising. But right now a loss to Trump would be crazy making and destructive from the federal through county parties.
In that case, every politico who thinks they know anything about GOTV will have to find a new career.
I am a NEVERTRUMPER who actually thinks Trump will most likely win. He has tapped into a populist, anti-establishment zeitgeist that won him the GOP nomination and may very well propel him to the Whitehouse. Hillary is a terrible candidate and I could see her campaign imploding.
I have never based my opposition to Trump on his electability. I refuse to vote for him because I am concerned about what he will do if he wins. I do not trust anything he says or promises, he has no respect for constitutional boundaries, and he lacks any semblance of character I want to see in a president, so the conservative SCOTUS appointment argument carries little weight with me. I am very uncomfortable with this anti-free trade talk and his fawning over Putin and various political “strong men. We cannot give Putin and China a free hand, as he appears so willing to do. (Would Putin dominating even enslaving Eastern Europe be a worse evil than liberal judicial appointments? I think it could be.) So vote for Hillary, right? Nope. I am also concerned about what she will do if she wins. Binary choice? Lesser of two evils? Nope again. My thinking is that they are both evil, just in different ways that are hard to quantify and compare at this time. I refuse to vote for either of these two terrible choices and will vote for Evan McMullen. God save the United States. God give us a wise President.
Two weeks ago we meandered around two-lane roads in Vermont, New Hampshire, New York and Pennsylvania. We saw many, let’s say well over fifty, yard signs though only two of them were for “Her.” Did we just happen to pick the ‘right’ route? We were amazed.
The game doesn’t work that way. They will still do it to us when they are back in power. Retaliation has to happen or its just a one way abuse system.
Always cooperate strategies are always bad.
The problem with this brand of “support” is that every full throated defense of Trump is 85% disclaimer.
“Look, NOoo one opposed Trump as much as I in the primary”[debatable]”he is clearly unqualified and dangerous and his policy proposals are fundamentally un-American and every one of the sixteen other candidates (along with ~300 million other Americans) would be far better, BUT… Hillary!!”
It’s Comeyesque
(making the case just before ignoring the case)
If Trump wins:
God hasn’t been much help in this regard.
If Trump wins?
First move into Amy Shumer’s now empty mansion. Then watch the unfolding disaster and point at the Trump supporters “You did this! Own it”
If he loses?
Stay in my hovel, Then watch the unfolding disaster and point at the Trump supporters “You did this! Own it” We had a ton of good candidates and you nominated this guy.
I’m only voting for him because her catastrophe looks worse.
It’s not an argument, it’s a prediction, in answer to the question posed by EJ.
One potentially enjoyable outcome could be watching the various European leaders who have ridiculed Trump having to deal with him as POTUS. For instance, Ireland’s Taoisigh (Prime Ministers) love their meetings in the White House on St Patrick’s Day. Maybe there’ll be a boycott?
Well, it’s honest. If a radio host spent the primary season knocking Trump for his behavior and statements and regarded him as the least conservative candidate in the race, and then decided to get on board because the alternative’s worse, of course they’re going to make disclaimers. It’s context, and it tells the listener that their name does not rhyme with Hon Schmamity or other cheerleaders.
Haven’t we been told that Trump’s liberal instincts will be kept in check by Actual Conservatives, and he’ll be guided and nudged where needed? Or are his critics to be sent to Hash Settling Seminars to instructed on how to behave in the future?
That’s pretty much where I am – Trump was 17/17. So much so I paid little attention to him until he started winning primaries because Trump’s Trump.
I’m not voting until actual Election day but when I do, barring unforeseen circumstances, I probably will vote for Trump because Hillary. I feel pretty slimy about it but I wasn’t thrilled pulling the lever for John McCain who at least was an honest-to-God war hero.
Granted, I am unable to comprehend the complex strategery of it all, but why wait until after the election to employ such control?
AHH! This makes sense! I don’t agree with it, but it makes sense. You are generally conservative, but also not a supporter of absolute free trade. In that case it makes complete sense to be enthusiastic about Trump, who wants some kind of protectionist policies, but is also sort of maybe conservative.. It would also give a rationale for supporting Trump over Cruz, Rubio, etc., since they are for free trade, a position you oppose. That makes far more sense than any other argument I’ve heard for enthusiastic Trump support.
Unfortunately, for me, this is a reason to not vote for Trump. I’ve watched Milton Friedman explain why he supports free trade and I think he makes the stronger case. I may still vote for Trump, but there is cost to doing so, if it means surrendering on a core issue like free trade. Given that I really don’t know what Trump is going to do, I may estimate that cost as too high. I’ll keep assessing this until November.