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What if he Actually Wins?
One of the constants of the political coverage this last year has been “Donald Trump cannot win because… ” Anyone who offered a scenario contrary to the cited “because” was self-delusional, a wishful thinker, or just plain stupid. And through it all, Trump just kept advancing, advancing, and advancing right through to the nomination. The conventional wisdom may still hold and he may yet lose in a landslide in November. But what if he does win? What if the conventional wisdom is actually a conventional delusion?
There will be plenty of theories to be sure. It was a year of historically horrible candidates. The vote was too fractured. Too many of this or that faction stayed home. Too many of this or that faction showed up. But like the financial commercials say, past results should never be seen as a guarantee of future returns.
In all honesty, I don’t think anyone knows. Circumstances constantly change. There were newspaper-only elections, radio elections, television elections and, now, internet and social media elections. In 1896, the winning candidate never left his house. In my lifetime alone, three major “that’ll never happen” presidents happened: We elected a Catholic, a divorced man, and a non-white.
The truth is that every election is unique and the circumstances that align the electorate are hard to repeat or predict. I don’t know what kind of president Donald Trump would make, I only know that if he gets a chance to show it, there’s a lot of people who make their living professing to know how to win elections are going to look unconventionally stupid.
Published in Politics
Brittany Warner, communications director for the Ohio Republican Party and director for the Ohio House campaign in 2014, said Democrats have had money issues and recruitment problems because of the strong majorities the GOP has in the Ohio House and Senate.
The GOP has a near supermajority in the Ohio House of 65 out of 99 seats. The Ohio GOP has a Senate supermajority of 23 of 33 seats.
Warner said despite all the Democratic money flowing into Ohio, it cannot likely help the legislative races, as the Democrats have a weaker political infrastructure. The biggest help for down-ballot Democrats and Republicans in Ohio is the turnout the presidential race cranks out, Warner said.
As for Trump’s effect down-ballot, Warner said it’s likely helping the GOP. According to the Ohio secretary of state’s office, since the March presidential primaries, more than 1 million Ohio voters have gone from unaffiliated, or Democratic, to Republican. Of that number, 115,000 were Democrats jumping ship.
Warner said that positive GOP trend even led the Mahoning County Democratic Party to fire 18 precinct committee persons for crossing party lines to vote in the Ohio GOP primary.
The excitement at the top of the ticket is prodding new voters and volunteers to show up, Romney McDaniel said.
“We’re seeing the groundswell,” said Romney McDaniel.
@fredcole– Here is a link: http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/05/18/more-democrats-crossed-over-to-vote-republican-in-ohio-primary.html
Here are several more- https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=Ohio+Secretary+of+State+switched+registration+to+Republican&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
Take Georgia, Iowa, and Arizona – Trump is ahead in all three. Hillary has never led or was approximately tied. – 33 EVs
Take Ohio, Hillary once led, now polls all Trump – 18 EV
Take Florida, Hillary once led, now all Trump – 29 EV
Total 243 EV, Maine +1 Trump min, Nebraska +4 Trump, total 248 (that’s 22 from the brass ring folks)
States with Trump Trend – Virginia, NH, Wisconsin, Michigan, (that 43 EV folks)
I know the some people would like to hold those moldy old March polls close to their hearts. Have at it.
Good Fred. My opinion is based on entrepreneurs, investors and seeing small business owners every day. I concede it is a poor source compared to some scribbler at a non profit magazine in DC who just learned to shave, but on what do you form your opinion?
Let’s see how the “winners” are doing.
“Meanwhile the Clinton camp is also calling out the “fanatical attitude” of the press in their coverage of Hillary’s “medical episode” on Sunday…something they say “most politicians” would “get a pass on.”
Finally, we would note that while the Clinton campaign struggles to point out a pro-Trump bias in the media (as laughable as that may be) the only factual evidence we have of a political party attempting to “collude” with the media comes from the DNC’s own emails. A fact which we previously pointed out in a post entitled “Leaked DNC Emails Confirm Democrats Rigged Primary, Reveal Extensive Media Collusion.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-14/left-whines-biased-press-hurting-hillary-thats-not-joke-theyre-actually-serious
You forgot to put a plug in for Harry’s.
I’m a single blade and soap and brush guy. Harrys is too new fangled.
Not “rooting for her”, “rooting against him”.
You may not be able to tell the difference, but to a lot of people here the difference is enormous. You see, in the latter case they’d be rooting Hillary to be sworn in on Inauguration Day, and if they get their way in the latter case, Hillary would be sworn in on Inauguration Day.
I expect there may be more states in play this cycle. My two long shot favorites right now are Rhode Island and New Jersey.
Rhode Island – Obama won this state by 27.5 %. Hillary leads by +3
New Jersey – Obama won this state by 18%, Hillary leads by +12.5 but there was a +21 Hillary poll in June (or about 1,000 years ago). The last poll was Hillary +4
But no one can tell what a cornered Democrat Party and it’s allies might do. November 8th is a long time away. On the other hand Trump has unearthed some unexpected allies. Everybody loves a winner and a seat on their bandwagon.
Oh. Are they eager for paid maternity leave? Are they looking forward to the economic disruption of mass deportations? Are they excited to have foreign trade shut down?
Also gay marriage.
One more health incident with Hillary – a fall, fainting, an unexplained absence, another coughing fit – and Trump will win.
Then, who knows? My guess is he will grossly overstep the constitutional bounds of the presidency and be impeached within the first 18 months or so.
By my count, I am 0 – 12 on predictions this year……
Richard proudly puts the “O” in O’Shea.
First, I don’t think she would be in a big hurry, nor would she need to be. Second, I am counting on Republicans to drag the hearings out and use them to showcase all the rotten double dealing of the Clintonistas. I expect that Hillary’s turnover would be slow and very late compared to other changes of Administration.
Which will suit her just fine anyhow. She doesn’t need to actually reward any of the Clintonistas, just so long as she can present the appearance of trying to keep her promises. And besides, the holdovers from Team Obama all have eight years of on-the-job training at weaponizing the agencies, crushing individual liberties, collusions and cover-ups. Perfect for her Administration.
I think the opposite. I’m sure she’s well along in her transition planning, knowing she has a lock on the election.
And it’s not about rewarding people.
You gotta understand her mindset: she’s paranoid as all get out. It’s not about rewarding people. It’s about making sure the key positions are filled with Clinton loyalists. When someone is paranoid, loyalty matters far more than competence.
Fred, just a couple of weeks ago we were being told that Trump was hurting the down ticket races. How soon you forget.
Usually it’s the Trump people saying that as a reason why we MUST vote for this lunatic.
I sure as hell didn’t say it. Ive always been quick to point out that the Democrats retained control of the Senate in the 1972 election, despite Nixon winning 49 states.