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Indiana Predictions
Ricochet, let’s have it out. Put it all on the line, and let’s hear the predictions for Indiana. Here is mine: I think this poll from NBC has it close, though I think Trump will exceed the 49 percent victory it predicts. For something closer to the final result, I look at this conclusion from the poll:
But 58 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Indiana say they disapprove of [Senators] Cruz and Kasich teaming up to beat Trump in the Hoosier State, while 34 percent say they approve of the move. What’s more, only 22 percent consider the Cruz-Kasich alliance a major factor in deciding their vote, 15 percent say it’s a minor factor and 63 percent say it would play no factor at all.
That, I suspect, is closer to the final result we’ll see tomorrow. Read together, those two statements indicate to me that the pact between Cruz and Kasich will suppress their aggregate turnout, as voters don’t care for the gamesmanship. Between that and Bobby Knight’s endorsement, I expect Trump to break 50 percent.
What say you? After this, we can all turn our collective minds to figure out what the heck just happened and why.
Published in Politics
If Bobby Knight’s endorsement is persuasive, it reinforces all the negative stereotypes of Trump supporters.
Don’t know much about Indiana, do you?
I grew up in Indiana. Bobby Knight fans are those who appreciate loud, obnoxious, arrogant, jerky, but highly successful men. Fame and success are more important than personal character.
That I went to Purdue has no bearing on the matter; I felt much the same way about Gene Keady.
I always found people tend to listen to loud success rather than soft spoken failure because the loud ones get well known. People like success. Except Progressives.
I predict there will be a primary in Indiana on Tuesday. The rest is anyone’s guess.
Cruz wins with a narrow victory.
I agree with you on this. I just don’t find it admirable. I prefer the Mitch Daniels type.
There is no enthusiasm left for the non-Trump options so those who bother to vote will be Trump people by a large majority.
In a campaign that was entirely designed to have candidates probe and attack each other’s weak points, the candidate who turned gaffes and personal deficits into selling points won. Maybe next time it will be about issues. *Sigh*
The voters this season have let the media choose their candidate for them….and they will be sorry in the future. We have evolved into an immoral country, bent on self-destruction, that has turned its back on God, so who will save us? History warned us. Nobody heeded.
I hope you are correct, but fear otherwise.
The more this drags on it appears to me we just haven’t fallen far enough yet.
The charisma of competence as George Will put it. Mitch doesn’t have to yell, because he is too busy accomplishing his next task.
Success in bribing politicians to get projects does not equate to success in being President.
One problem many successful people is that because they have been successful in one area, they think they know what they are talking about in every area, and they usually don’t.
Having graduated from both Purdue and Indiana, I wound up liking both Bobby Knight and Gene Keady. They are both great coaches, but for different types of teams. But I don’t think their success in basketball qualifies either one of them to be President.
I agree with this.
The predictit market indicates a 91% probability Trump wins Indiana.
If you believe Cruz wins, there is a tidy profit to be had in one day.
Trump will win going away. The Pence “endorsement” was the kiss of death for Cruz.
Is this due to his praise for Trump or the late timing of the endorsement? Or it’s non-Walker vociferousness?
I trade enough leverage, but thanks for the link.
It sounds like James and others have done well there.
Pence emitted a series of embarrassing equivocations. He tried to get credit for both a Cruz endorsement and his Donald praise, and therefore he will get neither.
I am going with Cruz win. It will allow this to drag out longer. Which is why I think it happens. Trump will get his forty and kasich collapses into Cruz like he did at Wisconsin.
Right. It shows that they have enlisted in a cult of celebrity.
I hope Cruz wins so we can finally get a CLEAR and accurate delegate count on the Ricochet sidebar.
I hope and pray that Cruz wins.
I read with dread Andrew Sullivan’s excellent piece from New York Magazine, “America Has Never Been So Ripe for Tyranny.” The thesis is that Democracies end when they are too democratic. And right now America is a breeding ground for tyranny.”
Trump is a demagogue who attacked Mexicans, then Muslims, and now the RNC, blaming these minorities for the ills of society, akin to how the fascists attacked the Jewish minority for the ills of Germany.
I will never vote for Trump. I have not voted for a Democrat for President since 1972, however I will vote for Hillary or Bernie before I would vote for Trump.
To paraphrase George Will and Jonah Goldberg, this is a time for choosing. I will do everything I can to purge Trump, Trumpkins and the Vichy Republicans who collaborate with Trump.
If you would have asked me several weeks ago I would say that Trump had it in a landslide. Cruz’s ground game has made a difference. I know Trump people that are now leaning Cruz. If it will be enough I am not sure.
Ja! Beseitigung der Unerwünschten!
uh what about soft spoken success?
Heh. To the GOPe, the white working class are the ultimate undesirables.
I will go out on the longest limb there is… I say Kasich will win. Who wants to places the odds on that? 1,000,000:1?
Does Kasich still have less delegates than Rubio? Does anyone know?
Exactly. Except for the character slur, you have described me perfectly.
NBC/WSJ/Marist 04/26-04/28
George Will has become this election’s Peggy Noonan and Andrew Sullivan was despised by conservatives in 2008, when the biggest conservative backstabber of them all, John McCain was our nominee.
Prognostication: 6 losers in Indiana:
1. Trump will win, secure the nomination and lose the general, but with a surprising 200-230 Electoral votes. The womanly thing will prevent him from spreading the color red on the map – but without that, he could have done well. Unpredictable sells. (Wall Street will be sort of pleased if he wins. At least Carl Icahn will.)
2. Cruz will find out his strategy is too narrow, he is a bit inexperienced, and he is as likeable as Hillary, but not as much as Trump. He does better than expected in Indiana but loses. Turns out a basketball “ring” in Indiana is 12 feet high. (Wall Street wants Ted to win; he owes Goldman big money.)
3. The GOP will lose with either one of these guys. Reince Priebus in 2020. (Wall Street saves having to give to the GOP’s 2016 fall campaigns – lost causes.)
4. The conservative movement looks ridiculous after opposing Trump and then go along – sort of. (Wall Street is incurably liberal to soothe their conscience, they don’t care what happens to conservatives.)
5. The American people will lose as the FBI investigation goes poof and Hillary wins. Hey, she waited. She is due. We deserve it. (Wall Street avoids the American people so they are not that aware of what is happening to them.)
6. Oh, …. And John “I am in this until the end” Kasich will lose again. (He will go back to work on Wall Street.)
??