Tag: John Kasich

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America have no good martinis to serve on Presidents’ Day. They shake their heads as two survivors from last week’s school shooting label the NRA “child killers” and insist the group be disbanded and blast CNN for the leading questions that led to those statements. They also groan as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell predicts the GOP will lose seats in the House and Senate, which would suggest he expects to be in the minority after an election map that couldn’t be better suited for Republicans. And they slam CNN again for horribly biased questions to Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is now demanding something be done about guns while scrubbing his website of language describing how he is a champion of the Second Amendment.

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On this AEI Events Podcast, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Ohio Gov. John Kasich discuss their proposal to stabilize the individual insurance market and to make a series of other health reforms with Vox’s Sarah Kliff. The two governors stressed the importance of stabilizing the individual insurance market in the near term and maintaining a bipartisan approach. They spoke of the need for compromise as the health care debate moves forward.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) changed how the health insurance market works, making coverage available to everyone regardless of their health status. This year’s premium increase and the departure of insurers from some local markets have raised concerns that those markets are unstable. Uncertainty about the federal government’s commitment to promoting this market and paying insurers for new cost-sharing reductions required by the ACA has created new concerns for 2018.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America consider whether an independent ticket of Republican John Kasich and Democrat John Hickenlooper in 2020 would damage President Trump or simply dilute the anti-Trump vote. They also demand a firm response from the Trump administration as the evidence of hostile Cuban acts against our diplomats in Havana piles up. And they unload on House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi for trying to deny a permit for a “Patriot Prayer” event in San Francisco because such a gathering is akin to “shouting wolf in a crowded theater.”

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David French of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America applaud Republican National Committee Chairman Ronna Romney McDaniel for simply stating there is no room in the Republican Party for white supremacists and that the GOP does not want their votes. They’re also surprised by Steve Bannon’s on-the-record interview with a liberal publication, in which he dismisses the military option on North Korea, outlines his push for a trade war with China and more. And they take a deep sigh as Ohio Gov. John Kasich gets closer to convincing himself there is a “moral imperative” for him to run against President Trump in 2020.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America like the new sanctions approved against North Korea, and they really like to see China, Russia, and other countries cooperating in this effort to rein in the isolated nation. They rip the New York Times for suggesting Vice President Mike Pence is planning to run for president in 2020 if President Trump does not, all because Pence is doing a lot of fundraising events — and they enjoy a little Kasich-bashing as the same Times article conjectures about Ohio Gov. John Kasich launching a primary challenge to Trump. And they react to Dunkin’ Donuts blaming a confusing store layout for an employee’s refusal to serve two NYPD officers in Brooklyn.

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Trump’s New PACs

 

So after winning the nomination Donald Trump has announced that he’s going to form Super PACs with the intention of defeating fellow Republicans Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and a third person, unnamed but widely believed to be Ben Sasse.

This is what I love about Trump. He is what is known as a mensch. You have to admire the mentality of a man who — while running for president — announces an effort to defeat his fellow Republicans because they didn’t support him, and yet says he’s mostly focused on defeating Hillary Clinton.

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What GOP Voters Are Thinking: A Snapshot from Maryland

 

Donald-trump-marylandBefore our local Maryland primary on April 26 — part of the so-called I-95 set of primaries that was Donald Trump’s penultimate victory before his clinching Indiana win — I spent a couple of days canvassing for John Kasich and local candidates door to door, at public places, and at the polls in Frederick and Montgomery Counties. I’ve done this a couple of times before elections and have never regretted it; I always learn a lot about what’s on other people’s minds.

A few takeaways from this season:

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Modeling the GOP Nomination: Before Indiana

 

As described in sections 3.2 and 3.3 of the new PDF, the prediction model performed well last week. The median predicted delegates for Trump-Cruz-Kasich were 108-4-6, which compares well to the actual final delegate totals of 111-2-5.

The delegate model converted the actual voting shares in the states to actual delegates almost perfectly (only off by one in Rhode Island), and the model’s 80-percent confidence intervals for voting shares and delegates happened to contain the true value in all cases.

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Indiana Predictions

 

shutterstock_218366983Ricochet, let’s have it out. Put it all on the line, and let’s hear the predictions for Indiana. Here is mine: I think this poll from NBC has it close, though I think Trump will exceed the 49 percent victory it predicts. For something closer to the final result, I look at this conclusion from the poll:

But 58 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Indiana say they disapprove of [Senators] Cruz and Kasich teaming up to beat Trump in the Hoosier State, while 34 percent say they approve of the move. What’s more, only 22 percent consider the Cruz-Kasich alliance a major factor in deciding their vote, 15 percent say it’s a minor factor and 63 percent say it would play no factor at all.

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Should I Thank Ohio Republicans? Or Curse Them?

 
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Steve Lagreca / Shutterstock.com

Many of Senator Ted Cruz’s Ohio supporters voted for Governor Kasich in the GOP primaries in order to stop Trump. I was skeptical of that strategy, because I thought keeping Kasich in the race longer would dilute the anti-Trump vote and, thus, ultimately serve to weaken Cruz.

Now people on the Kasich and Cruz teams have announced a pact, of a sort. Cruz will abandon the field in Oregon and New Mexico, where Kasich is stronger. In return, Kasich will abandon Indiana, where Cruz has his last shot at denying Trump popular legitimacy and a first-round victory at the Republican national convention.

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Cruz Cedes OR, NM Primaries to Kasich; Focuses on Indiana (UPDATE: Trump Responds)

 

Jeff Roe, Cruz for President’s campaign manager released the following statement late Sunday:

Having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in November would be a sure disaster for Republicans. Not only would Trump get blown out by Clinton or Sanders, but having him as our nominee would set the party back a generation. To ensure that we nominate a Republican who can unify the Republican Party and win in November, our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico, and we would hope that the allies of both campaigns would follow our lead. In other states holding their elections for the remainder of the primary season, our campaign will continue to compete vigorously to win.

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What the GOP Can Learn from The Oscars

 

Trump OscarsEven after a big win for Donald Trump in the New York primary last night, it is still likely that no candidate will arrive at the convention with a majority of the delegates on the first ballot. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed that 62% of republicans feel that the candidate with the most delegates should be the nominee, despite not having a majority.

One of the issues with this poll – that was discussed on a recent episode of the FiveThirtyEight election podcast – is how the question was asked. One wonders the outcome if the question was “should the party nominee be a candidate who the majority of the party did not vote for?”.

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Live from New York, It’s Tuesday Night!

 

This is a preview from Friday morning’s The Daily Shot newsletter. Subscribe here free of charge.

The Daily ShotTuesday, the Empire State went to the polls. New York is a big deal because it’s nominally the home state to three of the four leading presidential contenders. (Well, four of five if you include George Pataki.) Bernie Sanders is from Brooklyn (which explains the accent). Donald Trump is from Queens (which explains … a lot). And Hillary Clinton is a 100 percent authentic New Yorker who bought a mansion in Chappaqua to meet the residency requirements to run for Senate from a state she’d never lived in. (Not that we’re still bitter or anything…)

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It Ain’t Over Yet, Part Three

 

The week before this past one Hillsdale was on spring vacation, and I was on the road — first to DC to give short talks about my book The Grand Strategy of Classical Sparta: The Persian Challenge at a dinner sponsored by the Bradley Foundation and at another held at Hillsdale’s Kirby Center, then on to Claremont McKenna College on the outskirts of Los Angeles, to attend a Montesquieu conference sponsored by the Salvatori Center.

While in DC, I had breakfast with Michael Barone — who arrived armed with a map xeroxed from Robert Putnam’s book Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community and proceeded to try out an idea on me — to wit, that Trump appeals powerfully to those who, so to speak, “bowl alone” and has little appeal for those who “bowl in leagues.” If true, he told me, this suggests that Trump will falter in Wisconsin and do poorly in North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, and Oregon. Ten of the 11 states, he explained, where people most emphatically tend to “bowl alone” have already voted. Trump won them all, but there are not all that many states of this sort left.

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To Wisconsin … and Beyond!

 

This is a preview from Friday morning’s The Daily Shot newsletter. Subscribe here free of charge.

TDS-Logo-BWith Tuesday’s important Wisconsin primary rapidly approaching, the world of polling is heating up. A new survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Ted Cruz one point ahead of Donald Trump, leading 38 percent to 37 percent, with John Kasich at 17 percent. (However, PPP is known to tilt left a little, so do with that what you will.)

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