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Is Tom Cotton the Solution to a Contested Convention?
A recent post over at Ace of Spades discusses a convention scenario where neither Trump nor Senator Cruz are deemed electable. Whenever this subject is presented, it’s usually just a matter of time before Speaker Paul Ryan is suggested as a possible nominee, but I agree with Ace that Ryan is not a palatable choice for a significant number of Republicans. And while the idea of nominating someone other than Cruz or Trump still strikes me as far-fetched, it’s not as far fetched as I once thought.
Should we find ourselves in the situation Ace describes, I believe Senator Tom Cotton would be the perfect candidate for the party. His pedigree is similar to that of Cruz, but lacks some of the baggage: Cotton is a decorated veteran of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, he is solid on immigration and sanctuary cities, and he is the only senator to vote against the disastrous Corker Bill. He is an outsider, but has generally remained under the radar and hasn’t ruffled too many feathers.
The conservative movement and Republican party need a true unifier. The current civil war is proving disastrous, and parachuting an unpalatable candidate into the the convention at the last moment will permanently destroy us. I don’t believe we can ever go back to the way things were before this cycle, but Cotton could be a new unifying beginning.
We cannot cede the election to Clinton and say “we’ll really get ’em in 2020.” We don’t have that kind of time.
Published in Politics
I think there’s a significant difference between the never-rans and those who lost. Under most circumstances, I find the former more palatable (though I also supported Walker early on).
Well, yes.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. ;)
I like Tom Cotton, but if the GOP refuses Trump the nomination, you might as well give Hillary the keys to the White House. I’m convinced that no one else can beat her but Trump. Cruz will not win moderate states. Kasich will get crushed as well. Not gonna happen. Regardless of your opinion on Trump, if you want a GOP win in November, Trump is the only chance.
Funniest thing I’ve read on Ricochet this week.
Every time we play these intellectual games we strengthen Trump and weaken Cruz. Get over it. Get behind Cruz with enthusiasm, whether you feel it or not. Do your homework and develop it.
Assuming neither Trump or Cruz has 1,237 going into the convention:
If Trump isn’t the nominee and Republicans lose the enthusiasm and some votes of Trump supporters can they still win the general? Possibly.
If Cruz isn’t the nominee and Republicans lose the enthusiasm and some votes of Cruz supporters can they still win the general? Possibly.
If neither Trump or Cruz is the nominee and Republicans lose the enthusiasm and some of those collective voters can they still win the general?
Not a chance.
I’ve got bad news for everyone. We’re already screwed. There is no uniting the party. There is no reconciling the Trump hordes with those of us who think he is a revolting man. This is over. Donate to politicians you particularly like, donate to the NRSC and maybe Paul Ryan.
Grasping at every young, handsome straw we can find is not the solution here. And for God’s sakes can Republicans stop idolizing the guy who just got there as some kind of messiah? You only don’t hate them because they haven’t been re-elected yet. That’s apparently the scarlet letter. Does no one see how messed up that all is?
Interesting idea… That would also free Cruz up for the Supreme Court vacancy…
I’m not that confident in Cruz but how can you not see that, regardless of whether you personally like him, for whatever reason a good 65-70%+ of the country thinks Trump is rotten.
Both of them have near 100% name recognition. If it’s Trump/Clinton the cake is already baked. Everyone knows they’re both scumbags but one of them at least knows something about politics and policy. The country is not going to go with a wild card of this magnitude in a general election of the president. Those are just the facts.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
I don’t believe the convention will get to the point of considering never-rans and expect Cruz to emerge as the nominee. Having said that, there are several interesting options available.
If true – and I’m not sure it is (significant number differing from loud number) – that is one of many signs the Republican Party can no longer cohere around its stated principles and will undergo a major transformation in any outcome save, perhaps, a presidential victory by someone who holds those principles (I would include Cruz and Kasich here but not Trump).
Among the never-rans, I would gladly vote for Tom Coburn, Paul Ryan, Ben Sasse, Tom Cotton and some others. No doubt they are all immeasurably better choices than Trump. But my favorite choice, and the one best situated to defeat Hillary Clinton this fall, is South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
If the convention is so fractious that a never-ran emerges as the nominee, that candidate is obviously facing a steep uphill climb. Nikki Haley would scare the wits out of Democrats and would have a good chance of prevailing in November.
aardo vozz
“The Germans?”
“Forget it. He’s rolling.”
Hey, the Germans didn’t…. Oh, I get it. You’re quoting Ghostbusters.
Except, and I say it over and over, the Trump hordes are predominantly not Republicans. I wish I could find a link, but Midge showed data that actually 29% of Trump voters were registered Republicans. Since I can’t find her source data, I don’t know what n was represented in that sample (Midge? Help?) but it seems to me that 29% of the 35% or so of primary voters who have voted for Trump is on the order of 10% of Republicans. And a minority of them are really the die-hard Trump people; most are just uneducated and persuadable.
So I don’t think the party is over if we lose the Trump voters. In fact, I would be interested in finding out: of the 5% or so of Ricochet readers who are Trump supporters, what percentage actually were registered as Republicans before this debacle? I know that at least some were not.
I am on record as thinking that this election is probably lost. But I’d love to hope that I’m wrong. Jim Geraghty wrote yesterday, “Is it really that hard to choose between a small chance of victory with Cruz and the political self-immolation that comes from nominating Trump?” I’m with him on that.
So all the polls showing Trump getting crushed in the general election are wrong?
I thought it was Tora Tora Tora.
Oh I’m totally with you on that. Some days I’m feeling more pessimistic than others.
Whenever I’ve heard him interviewed, I’ve been impressed. I’d vote yes.
I guess but as I understand it there are no rules for the 2016 convention. Rule 40b and all the other rules from 2012 only applied to 2012. The 2016 rules committee helps establish the rules and this is one of the first things done at the convention. They set new rules each time at the beginning. So yeah they modify the rules just like every 4 years, then they follow those rules for the Convention. Once the convention is over so are the rules, four years latter all new rules get created.
This does not seem like a conspiracy to keep out Trump or Cruz but just the way it has always worked.
My instinct is yes…my problems with his privacy stances notwithstanding. Then I remember that he’s unvetted. Cotton would be a much bigger gamble than playing out the Cruz hand.
Yeah.
The thing is, I am fairly sure that a lot of Cruz voters are unenthusiastic Cruz voters. If Cruz was really likely to appeal to all the diverse parts of the Republican party, Kasich would not still be drawing any votes at all. I am skeptical about Cruz winning the general election and I’m not all that sure that he would be a great president if he did (although I’m entirely confident that he’d be better than Hillary or Bernie). And the convention is made up of people who really would like us to win the general election. So they might have an interest in finding another candidate.
The problem is that it’s 2400+ people drawn from places as different as the Marianas islands, Maine, and Alaska, not to mention of course the Cruz-loyal Texans. My guess is that getting anyone other than Cruz through the convention would be like trying to herd literally thousands of cats. I just can’t imagine it happening.
If neither Trump or Cruz wins the nomination, then the GOPe which has a vested interest in the outcome, will have manipulated the situation such that the only two persons who have survived the marathon of campaigning will be denied a place at the table.
If they pick Kasich, who is barely on the radar, you’ll see a revolt. If they pick an outsider, and Cotton has been suggested, you’ll see a revolt.
The revolt will be because a majority of the voters have whittled down the candidates to two with any real chance of winning, and the GOPe has decided against them. The background noise you are hearing now will be in the ears of the delegates. Then there will be the noise heard when the GOP erupts and the Dems actually win the Oval Office that will spell the doom of the GOPe and their manipulation of the events that will be transmitted throughout this country, with an admission that the GOPe doesn’t care about winning the election.
For the umpteenth time, there is no GOPe at the convention. There are only 2400+ dedicated volunteers from as far away as the Marianas Islands who care about the future of the party and the country.
That great scene with Brian Dennehy. He was amazing.
Tell me the frequency, please. I’m having trouble tuning my implants to that message.
GOPe does not pick the nominee. The delegates pick the nominee. The delegates are far more conservative than the DC Republicans. Kasich has as much chance of the delegates choosing him as does Colin Powell – none.
The only reason someone other than Trump or Cruz gets chosen is that both candidates get to the convention with less than 1237 pledged delegates and neither’s pledged delegates are willing to defect to the other candidate in sufficient numbers once they are released. (This also assumes enough delegates for other candidates are #NeverTrump and #NeverCruz enough to vote for either.)
If the convention deadlocks in this way – and it goes 10 or more ballots, there will be a new candidate other than Trump or Cruz proposed who will win nomination. That candidate will not be Kasich, and given the mood of the delegates, not a GOPe choice (like Jeb!). It will be a conservative from west of the Mississippi, likely one Cruz will back.
The Trump supporters may revolt, but most are not GOP anyway (many are conservative Democrats). GOPe will fall in line because that is what GOPe does. Unless Trump arrives with 1237 he is not getting the nomination. If Cruz cannot top 1237 by the third ballot, he will not either.
Seawriter
Lets see. We had the real Republicans show up for Romney, except for those who didn’t show up. We had the real Republicans show up for McCain (and many of those because they liked Palin and not because they trusted the Maverick part-time Republican), but McCain did not win that election. We had the real Republicans show up for Dole, who noted that Clinton was not his enemy, but Dole – perceived as a Republican and a tactician in the Senate – failed to win in his run against Bill.
Now, if large numbers of independents and Democrats are actually changing parties to support a Republican candidate, well, lets marginalize those people. We don’t need them to win. Really? We don’t need them to win? Good thinking. We certainly don’t want to sacrifice our purity of thought and once again begin losing hard-won gains on many fronts by giving the Democrats what is a winnable election for the Republicans. Better that the Democrats control the Oval Office, the House and the Senate and pick the next few Supremes than that we actually win something. Good thinking!
Yes.
I think we have a good chance of beating Hillary with Cruz or just about anyone else. People say Cruz is unlikable, but remember who he’s running against. He only has to be less unlikable than Hillary, which is not a high bar. And the Dems may have their own turnout problem if Bernie supporters sit on their hands, which they may well do. The exception to that is Trump. People will crawl over broken glass to vote against that imbecile. If he gets the nomination I’m voting for Dwight David Honeycutt.
We don’t need the Democrats who follow David Duke wherever he goes, thank you very much.
If you believe that you can win the election with Trump, then there is no way you can be convinced with data or hard evidence, so we’ll just have to leave it at that.
I hope you’re right about Cruz. I strongly suspect that before all of this started he was one of the easiest to beat of our potential candidates, apart from Trump. Chris Christie had even higher unfavorable ratings, though, so we could have done even worse. Every cloud has a silver lining, I guess.
I’ll also point out winning with voters who support single-payer healthcare, and believe the principle function of the government is helping its citizens would be a Pyrrhic victory best case. We would be better off attempting to win with a candidate who favors less regulation, less crony capitalism, and less government than going into a election with a candidate who supports all those, even if that candidate were guaranteed to win.
For those of you who have read “Prince Caspian” it would be Nickabrik’s candidate.
Seawriter
I think we need to find the middle ground here. Yes the current polling shows Trump losing. Yes some of Trump’s supporters are awful people.
That said 30-40% of likely Republican Primary voters in Wisconsin or 50% in New York, or 45% of actual voters in Florida are not clansmen. It is actually important to maintain the not awful Trump supporters if we want to win an election.