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Is Tom Cotton the Solution to a Contested Convention?
A recent post over at Ace of Spades discusses a convention scenario where neither Trump nor Senator Cruz are deemed electable. Whenever this subject is presented, it’s usually just a matter of time before Speaker Paul Ryan is suggested as a possible nominee, but I agree with Ace that Ryan is not a palatable choice for a significant number of Republicans. And while the idea of nominating someone other than Cruz or Trump still strikes me as far-fetched, it’s not as far fetched as I once thought.
Should we find ourselves in the situation Ace describes, I believe Senator Tom Cotton would be the perfect candidate for the party. His pedigree is similar to that of Cruz, but lacks some of the baggage: Cotton is a decorated veteran of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, he is solid on immigration and sanctuary cities, and he is the only senator to vote against the disastrous Corker Bill. He is an outsider, but has generally remained under the radar and hasn’t ruffled too many feathers.
The conservative movement and Republican party need a true unifier. The current civil war is proving disastrous, and parachuting an unpalatable candidate into the the convention at the last moment will permanently destroy us. I don’t believe we can ever go back to the way things were before this cycle, but Cotton could be a new unifying beginning.
We cannot cede the election to Clinton and say “we’ll really get ’em in 2020.” We don’t have that kind of time.
Published in Politics
That is actually plausible if neither Trump nor Cruz has won the nomination by the third ballot. The delegates will choose the nominee, not the mythical GOPe. The delegates are selected from grass roots in every state and are significantly more conservative than the Washington D. C. Republicans.
My prediction: If Cruz or Trump do not win the nomination it will be a conservative from west of the Mississippi – and Cotton falls into that category.
Seawriter
I don’t see any path to victory in the general for anyone nominated who did not run in the primary. It will alienate nearly everyone who voted in the primary with a belief that their vote was meaningful.
Besides, with the party’s recent rule addition to try to thwart Ron Paul, requiring 8 states majority to be considered a valid candidate for the convention, they shot themselves in the foot. I realize they can change the rules again, but changing the rules after the primary seems foolhardy and will be seen by most as crooked. Once the game starts, the rules are the rules! You don’t change the rules at halftime.
So, like it or not, the party is pretty much stuck with Trump or Cruz. I personally could see a justification for allowing the rest of the primary candidates ( Bush, Rubio, etc) back in ( but they would only be eligible if they rescind the Ron Paul rule), but that would even be a sticky move.
The party has painted themselves in a corner, and the only chance they have now is Trump or Cruz. Sadly, I suspect they would rather lose to Hillary than accept either one of those.
Agreed.
I would love to see this.
Cotton just might be able to keep most of the new voters if he can hit immigration and trade consistent with Trump. I expect they could talk Trump into an endorsement. He wins by passing the role on.
Sign me up if Cotton can be a free trader with nationalist common sense. He would still have to build the wall.
He could beat Hillary handily, especially as a Benghazi contrast. Hillary faked being shot at, Cotton was shot at.
The GOP in a brokered convention has to make peace with Trump. If they do not, the media will hand Trump more airtime than ever as the man who had the nomination stolen. I doubt they have thought that far ahead.
The only win for the GOP is a candidate who Trump endorses and campaigns for. Keeping Trump inside the tent is a must to win. Otherwise, the party will crash under the division.
I love the guy, but no thanks.
This is certainly not an ideal scenario, but if neither Trump or Cruz can reach 1237; I don’t think Trump or Cruz walks out of that convention with the nomination. We need to minimize the damage. I don’t trust the so called establishment to pick a candidate nor do I think any of the other 15 candidates will be palatable, because they had their shot. I am just preparing the best possible option for a bad situation.
That in and of itself qualifies him.
Are you kidding? No, no, no. That’s the RINO argument. Absolutely not. All true conservatives can see through your GOPe plotting. We’re not interested.
Ben Sasse 2016!
Seriously? RINO argument? GOPe?
And with regards to Senator Sasse, he has aligned himself with the #nevertrump movement. How do you sell him to Trump voters and prevent them from walking away and staying home? He has also been a Senator for less than two years.
I would really like this – Cotton met with Trump’s team recently, I saw a brief interview with him and he said he had disagreements but he did not trash Trump. I was surprised but very pleased. If we can at all ease Trump out of this without his going nuclear, it must be with someone who has shown him basic respect.
Another great interview, watch how he dismantles Hillary – http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/cotton-i-share-trump-s-questions-on-nato-652187715826
Well so has Tom Cotton but he was in The House of Representatives previously.
Yes, that would be very cool. In that instance, I’d vote.
Scott Walker might deserve a second look, since he quit early warning others to unite against Trump. Maybe Mitt will say the GOPe’s misguided early shock and awe on behalf of Jeb! should grant him a second look. I definitely agree we can’t give up on the White House now. Did we give up when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor? Fight, fight, fight.
No, not seriously!
There was some thread around here a while back in which a few of us went on a meaningless rabbit trail picking sides in the Cotton vs. Sasse 2024 primary. I just assumed the humor would carry over, I suppose.
Seriously, though, wasn’t Cotton first elected senator himself in 2014?
I do think this is a year in which a credible military figure might be the one thing that could bring the party together and defeat Clinton. But it would very much have to be the right person, and I am not sure that person exists. Cotton would be perceived mainly as a senator, I think.
I like Walker, he was my first choice way back when he announced. The problem is his campaign was lacking and he has reinserted himself back into the campaign and taken a side. And Mitt Romney could not play a role because he has also taken a clear side. This effort would have to be extremely delicate because one wrong move could drive people away. Imagine any mafia movie where there is a “sit-down” between fighting families.
My suspicion was that it was a joke, should have gone with my instinct. You are right that Cotton was elected as a senator in 2014, but he was in the House prior to that, so he has been known for a longer time.
I’m not sure if “choosing sides” will have mattered anymore. I think Trump is going to accuse the nominee of being a GOP plot no matter who it is.
If it isn’t Cruz, his supporters are going to feel at least as robbed as Trump’s (with no more justification, technically, though I do believe the convention should nominate Cruz). And even if he can’t get a majority he’s likely to have more personally loyal delegates than anyone else, and thus to be the primary “broker” on the floor. If Cruz isn’t strongly behind the nominee there would be a risk of some of his supporters walking out.
Now maybe… if Trump supporters focus all their bitterness on Cruz and then Cruz is denied, maybe more of them would support the final nominee — even if it’s someone Cruz’s delegates help get the job. How it all plays out could be more important than who it is.
I haven’t really thought about how this will actually work among the delegates. I’m thinking more of the average Trump/Cruz/#nevertrump/GOPe voter sitting at home. Cotton seems like a guy who would not negatively impact turnout in November.
If Trump goes in with 1150 delegates on the first ballot and continually loses on subsequent ballots and eventually have Paul Ryan/Marco Rubio/Mitt Romney leave the convention as the nominee; I think a lot of voters would stay home in November.
There is a bit of confusion regarding Rule 40b. The rule reads,
Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
Notice the rule does not say the candidate needs to have won a majority of delegates in eight states but must demonstrate support of a majority. This support can come about from negotiations among the delegates up to an hour before the name is placed in nomination.
Likely enough. But I don’t think we know how it all plays out. I don’t know that more Trump voters would sit out for Ryan or Rubio than for Cruz. I think there’s a risk that more Cruz voters would sit it out, but not a certainty — that depends on how it all plays out.
Psychologically, for instance, some voters would feel much better about, say, Rubio if he came out of the convention because Cruz swung behind him to block Romney. That’s unlikely, but just one example — we’d have some high drama, and hard to tell how people react to it all.
You guys are working under the principle that they have to follow the rules. In actuality they do not. The GOP is a private organization and can follow, disregard and modify its rules as it seems fit when it wishes.
I know what you’re saying…
S.M.O.D. has a chance
If I voted for Carson or Rubio my vote is already meaningless. Why would I not prefer Cotton to Trump or Cruz just because of that? My interest is the good of the country, and I am not particularly wedded to this process–especially not this process.
BTW, I do find Cotton extremely impressive. But I doubt he is ready for prime time. Besides, he just became a father for the first time, and he is not crazy. I doubt he’s interested.
Where did he say this? Do you have a source? You seem to imply that he does not believe in the Constitution. I seriously doubt that. If all you mean is metadata, then Richard Epstein, hardly an enemy of privacy rights, has explained that it is perfectly constitutional for the government to collect data that is already in the public domain, and who called whom is in the public domain since the phone company has to have that knowledge.
How is he on corporate welfare?
How is he on Dodd-Frank (aka nationalization of American commerce)?
If we were only so lucky.
seriously, at least SMOD would get people to stop talking about Trump.
No thanks. I’m not interested in having an uber-hawk who wants to jail journalists as President.
He’ll have to wait until 2020 to run.
I can’t envision a scenario where the nomination is given to someone like Cotton, who didn’t want it enough to run in the primary with the other 17 nimrods, or to somebody that has already been considered and rejected, like Walker. (Scott Walker, of course, not anonymous, although that would be awesome) Why should voters rally behind rejects and never-rans? Just because they are Not-Trump and Not-Hillary? Do we really want to call a Mulligan on the primary process and give it to somebody who had less desire and ambition than Bachmann, Gingrich and Herman Cain?
“The Germans?”
“Forget it. He’s rolling.”
Cotton is clearly dead wrong on the matter, but — with the right congressional majority — this sort of thing can be opposed (though I concede the politics will be different if it’s a Republican-on-Republican fight between Congress and the White House).
At this point, I’m willing to do quite a lot to save us from either Trump or Clinton. Cotton is on the shortlist of the best available options.