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What is the Path Forward?
We all expected yesterday to be pretty awful, so let’s not spend too much time mourning today. I wish Rubio had dropped out before yesterday and proven himself to be the statesman that many of us believe he’s capable of being, but the job now is to find a way forward.
Kasich did those of us who are #NeverTrumpers a favor by winning Ohio, of course, but I think he’s going to be a thorn in our sides from here on out. He will divide our side’s vote and prevent Cruz from cleaning up. I can’t see him dropping out, however, even though there’s zero chance he’ll win enough delegates to secure the nomination. He surely hopes to be the compromise candidate at a brokered convention, but he must know that’s highly unlikely, because even in what would be a best-case scenario for him, he won’t win very many delegates. More likely, he hopes to play kingmaker and score the veep slot.
The interesting thing is that since Kasich has proven that he can deliver Ohio, at least conservative Ohio, he can now try to play his cards to fill the veep slot for either Trump or Cruz. Is he the best person to do that? I have my doubts, but I suppose we could do worse.
Now that Rubio is out, how are things going to work? If Rubio had dropped out before yesterday, Cruz would surely have won Missouri, and perhaps Illinois and even Florida. In some states, he seems to have surged at the end and exceeded expectations. That’s all good news. Rubio has not been getting many votes lately, however, so it’s hard to know how much difference his absence will make.
One thing’s certain: Cruz’ performance is now important not only for the number of delegates he would bring to a brokered convention, but because a Cruz surge in the remaining states will show the nation, especially Trump supporters, that their guy has peaked and is unlikely to win the general. Cruz needs powerful momentum to win a brokered convention, which will serve to convince Trump supporters that their guy was a flash-in-the-pan who never had a chance. They would then be less likely to be bitter if Trump’s not the nominee, and more likely to turn out for Cruz.
I’m curious to know what’s going on in states that have not yet held a primary. What are you seeing in your un-primaried necks of the woods? I’m from California, but have been away for about a month. My state has reason to be especially concerned about immigration, which seems to be Trump’s strong suit, but on the other hand — little known fact — there are a lot of Mormons in California, which should help Cruz (though it didn’t do much good in Nevada). Still, Idaho and Utah delivered, or almost certainly will have after Utah votes. I think it’s likely that the Mormon population in California greatly improves Cruz’ chances.
Above all, don’t give up, fellow #NeverTrumpers! We’re in this fight to the bitter end, but we hope it’s not too terribly bitter for the sake of conservatism. Our nation needs our greatest commitment now.
Published in Politics
I do not think there is any math that supports a notion that if Rubio dropped out Cruz could’ve won Florida or if Cruz dropped out Rubio would’ve won Florida.
Beginning this morning I expect Republican consultants, legislators, and columnists to be on TV talking about Kasich. Ted Cruz will not be able to get arrested going forward.
Brent, do you see Cruz winning mid-Atlantic and northeast? I have grave doubts about his ability to win the general, but even more worrisome now is his getting there at all — even without Kasich as spoiler.
I’m still confident Mr. Trump will falter. I admit, I don’t have good evidence, because his success is at this point unparalleled. I would not begrudge the man or his supporters the title of most powerful challenger. But I believe he will lose & Sen. Cruz will win.
I also fear Sen. Cruz would lose a general election, not least because of the lessons he’s now learning–as I suspect, not that I have insider information of any kind…
I think Gov. Kasich is needed on the ticket–or someone like him, but I do not know who. The opinion that only conservatives matter is violently being shaken now: Maybe they matter not at all, except to themselves! A lot of people right her on Ricochet, who have my attention & my respect, talk about him as if he were a loser & betrayer of the conservative faith. As though a large part of the electorate is not where he is. How is conservatism going to govern against the electorate, should a conservative like Sen. Cruz win!, which I suppose is now the hope that unites us all–& should move those of you who vote & have influence!
Conservatives, should they win the nomination, as I expect, had better be big enough & practical enough to form a broad coalition. They need not merely to win in the general, but to form public sentiment enough to have a mandate for needed changes, on the trust that those changes will not be radical-
Cruz has some room to move upward. But now that we are down to two, the world will see plenty of video on what Ted Cruz is, said and did – not from negative advertising but from the media. Look forward to this lede, “Is Cruz a More Reasonable Choice?” That will not boost him as a person of more moderate behavior.
The choice is down to two bad boys – one who likes being bad and one who adopted the demeanor, but who is bad to be good. I have read the polling data on Sunday (it is sketchy) and Trump is still not strong enough to win (the primaries going foward are in more moderate states, not all winner-take-all, and subject to the influence of party leaders). Cruz has done himself no favors with the later crowd – many of whom actually favor the real Donald Trump to the fiery Ted Cruz. Trump is actually civil and reasonable in person and not the wise cracking, elbow throwing, volt grabbing persona we observe on stage. Think Sinatra.
Trump actually does not do as well in the northeast as some might hope or presume. Think blue collar, think no-college, think rust belt or dying small towns. They are Trump’s strong hold. So, Trump will do well in the “Alabama” part Pennsylvania, up state New York, and perhaps not many other places. He probably won’t carry Long Island, most of New Jersey, and the others. In the mid-west, Indiana will go more toward Kasich, Wisconsin, etc. The voters going forward split the vote between Cruz and Kasich. Anyway with the choice narrowed, the wildcard of violence at Trump rallies, and the need for dramatic news story lines — the polls are now out of date. It will be a wild rally from here on in.
This is the GOP’s Year of Living Dangerously. The two leaders cannot win in the fall – a combined media, popular and Democratic movement will destroy Trump as “hateful”, Cruz as extreme. Kasich could get elected, but what is the fun in picking someone who could win.
The GOP is down to buying Trump’s Revenge, Cruz’s Restoration, or Kasich’s Reaganism.
Merina, for someone who is #Never Trump, I am surprised you wanted Rubio out – but this took on a media beat that was destiny. Peter Wehner summed up Rubio this year as follows,
“The critique was there: The Republican Party was out of touch,” said Peter Wehner, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and former George W. Bush speechwriter. “But the breakdown occurred because we got into a cycle where policy didn’t matter at all. Policy was not just secondary, but it was almost not even in the conversation. And when people tried to interject policy — whether it was Rubio or Bush or others — there was just no appetite for it. It didn’t catch on.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rubios-demise-marks-the-last-gasp-of-the-republican-reboot/2016/03/15/e0a6413c-ea3d-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html
This was not a year for policy, the future of the GOP or much else other than candidates of narrow, but fervent appeal.
PS. I Just read Titus’s comment. Note: The way Titus thinks is the way most of the American electorate thinks. They do not read Ricochet, NR, or watch Fox News. They drink coffee with me a few times a week.
I suspect Trump will easily take my state (Maryland), though I and everyone I know is desperately hoping Kasich stays in so we have someone we can vote for with a clear conscience by late April….
Either Cruz or Trump on top is a huge damper on enthusiasm for most of the people I know, though more will hold their nose and vote Cruz if it came to it (against Hilary). But that is utterly unscientific.
Liz, not being from there I don’t know.
Anything is possible with faith and effort on the part of those living in the region.
I think we are about to see the true color of the Republican party so have my doubts about the outcome in August and am steeling myself appropriately.
I am not convinced it is good if Kasich gets out (in terms of benefiting Cruz). Some Kasich votes might well go to Trump.
There will be no broad coalition. Trump has alienated too many Republicans. In January we will see President Hillary Clinton.
Long comment, but what a payoff! ‘In his mind, he thinks he’s American!’
James, I only wanted Rubio out because he had tanked, was clearly not going to win Florida, and by getting out would have given Cruz some states yesterday. Rubio has been my first choice all along, but I will happily vote for Cruz, never for Trump, though never for Hillary either. I’d be much happier to vote for Cruz than Kasich, though I realize Kasich is probably more electable, so would reluctantly vote for him if he were the candidate, which doesn’t seem likely. When the primary finally gets around to California, I will vote for whoever is most likely to beat Trump, which is probably Cruz.
I agree that you think like a great many Americans, Titus. I hope you do not find that insulting. I don’t think you are left-leaning, but I know several left-leaning people–Obama supporters even– who would vote for Kasich above Hillary. I’m not sure if having him in the veep slot would get their vote or not. I kind of suspect not.
Insulting? No. I’m interested in American politics so much that it would be a great compliment–it’s what I’m trying to think. I’m a bit skeptical, of course, not least because I lack the experience… I don’t lean left, but I also think like you do about the electorate. I think conservatism needs a generational pact to move the country right–a long, hard road. It’s such a tricky thing right now: Gov. Kasich would be a good VP even if Dems would not vote for him: The people, as opposed to the media, would cut the GOP some slack in the case of a Cruz-Kasich win. It would also unite the party somewhat…
Well, now you’ve got a choice. Trump or Hillary? #NeverTrump = #Hillary2016, after last night’s results (absent a miracle).
So it’s time to put that ill-considered hash tag in the dustbin of history and support the likely nominee.
No, people should fight to the convention!
Rubio stayed in for the chance to prevent trump from getting florida…
I cannot in clear conscience vote for either one.
My very scary thought on the drive into work this morning: George W. Bush is likely the last substantive president of this republic. It will be a vanity project for all who have come or will come after him.
Tuck, I do get the reasoning but Trump will destroy conservatism in a way Hillary cannot. In a Trump-Hillary matchup, I have to pray for a viable 3rd party candidate.
At the moment, it looks like Trump will go to the convention with enough delegates.
There may well not be a fight.
Not if he loses his ass in the west, which is a possibility.
Trump won’t do anything to conservativism: he’s not a conservative.
The Republican Party is not a Conservative party: it never has been and never will be. Conservatives ally with the Right Progressives who make up the core of the GOP because we share some interests. It’s a marriage of convenience.
So what Trump does to the GOP is entirely a different question from what happens to the Conservative movement going forward.
What boggles the mind is Conservatives lining up behind Hillary, as you do above—that’s what supporting a third-party candidate means, if you’re not clear.
Trump, for all his faults, will clearly make a better President than the utterly-corrupt Hillary.
Not really. We’ve been told all along that Trump would flame out. He’s still picking up momentum.
I really see no difference.
Utterly fallacious. It is possible to oppose both Hillary and Trump, and in my mind the only moral thing to do.
If the media gives Cruz 1 Billion dollars in free time, yes. Otherwise, no. Sacrifice the country at the altar of advertising revenue, that’s the media approach. At least they will live well off under a tyrant, even if they won’t be free.
Welcome back, Merina! (I forgot to say that yesterday.) I think you are too rational (if there can be such a thing). Your argument is that Trump supporters will be convinced they need to abandon Trump for Cruz. That would be the rational thing to do. But since that is not where they’re coming from, it’s unlikely to see them move much. I suspect they will fight for their guy to the death–so to speak. Or maybe it is to the death of the Conservative ideal.
I think the way forward, substantively, is to expose Trump supporters as being completely and utterly ignorant of how our system of government works. Trump supporters should be asked whether they think sacrificing the bill of rights on the altar of ending free trade and shipping non-white illegal immigrants back to their countries of origin is a ‘great deal.” If they think that’s a good deal, opponents to Trump should explain, with examples, why giving up your freedom in exchange for security never works out.
In other words, it’s time to stop coddling Trump supporters and call them out for being part of a candidacy directly opposed to American values. We value freedom first, and security only insofar as it secures freedom. If you are willing to give up your core liberties – speech, press, religion – to feel secure, please move to another country.
I’ve never thought of us as coddling Trump supporters. I think the criticisms, specific and general, have been loud and clear. They just don’t care what others think. In fact, I suspect that the louder our rhetoric becomes, the more they will dig in. It’s so distressing to know that reason and clear thinking simply don’t penetrate the Trump fortress. Sad.
Tuck, it is not clear to me at all that Trump would be better than Hillary. On what do you base this?
I don’t expect to persuade the unpersuadable. I expect to expose them for what they are – ignorant.
Yeah, because this same tactic has been a yuuge success vs the Democrats over the past 100 years. We don’t have any ownership of the means to create and use the narrative that informs the world-views of the vast majority of the voters in this country. The way forward is screaming and yelling insults at the world from your closet?