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What is the Path Forward?
We all expected yesterday to be pretty awful, so let’s not spend too much time mourning today. I wish Rubio had dropped out before yesterday and proven himself to be the statesman that many of us believe he’s capable of being, but the job now is to find a way forward.
Kasich did those of us who are #NeverTrumpers a favor by winning Ohio, of course, but I think he’s going to be a thorn in our sides from here on out. He will divide our side’s vote and prevent Cruz from cleaning up. I can’t see him dropping out, however, even though there’s zero chance he’ll win enough delegates to secure the nomination. He surely hopes to be the compromise candidate at a brokered convention, but he must know that’s highly unlikely, because even in what would be a best-case scenario for him, he won’t win very many delegates. More likely, he hopes to play kingmaker and score the veep slot.
The interesting thing is that since Kasich has proven that he can deliver Ohio, at least conservative Ohio, he can now try to play his cards to fill the veep slot for either Trump or Cruz. Is he the best person to do that? I have my doubts, but I suppose we could do worse.
Now that Rubio is out, how are things going to work? If Rubio had dropped out before yesterday, Cruz would surely have won Missouri, and perhaps Illinois and even Florida. In some states, he seems to have surged at the end and exceeded expectations. That’s all good news. Rubio has not been getting many votes lately, however, so it’s hard to know how much difference his absence will make.
One thing’s certain: Cruz’ performance is now important not only for the number of delegates he would bring to a brokered convention, but because a Cruz surge in the remaining states will show the nation, especially Trump supporters, that their guy has peaked and is unlikely to win the general. Cruz needs powerful momentum to win a brokered convention, which will serve to convince Trump supporters that their guy was a flash-in-the-pan who never had a chance. They would then be less likely to be bitter if Trump’s not the nominee, and more likely to turn out for Cruz.
I’m curious to know what’s going on in states that have not yet held a primary. What are you seeing in your un-primaried necks of the woods? I’m from California, but have been away for about a month. My state has reason to be especially concerned about immigration, which seems to be Trump’s strong suit, but on the other hand — little known fact — there are a lot of Mormons in California, which should help Cruz (though it didn’t do much good in Nevada). Still, Idaho and Utah delivered, or almost certainly will have after Utah votes. I think it’s likely that the Mormon population in California greatly improves Cruz’ chances.
Above all, don’t give up, fellow #NeverTrumpers! We’re in this fight to the bitter end, but we hope it’s not too terribly bitter for the sake of conservatism. Our nation needs our greatest commitment now.
Published in Politics
I understand our election system well enough to realize that the odds of my one vote deciding the outcome here in the state of California are astronomical. I’d put the over/under on Hillary’s margin of victory in this state at around 1 million votes.
I meant better as in better for conservatives. I agree she is personally infinitely worse than Obama.
Just to wrap up this thread, let me just say that I feel no obligation to vote for a person who is the GOP nominee just because he is the GOP nominee. I only feel loyalty to the party insofar as it is conservative. In other words, I am in the party that has heretofore been conservative because I am conservative.
I don’t, BTW, subscribe to the notion that the parties are the same, or that there is some cabal out there called “the establishment” that runs everything in a nefarious way. I understand that when we have a far left president who thinks his pen and phone are Congress that it is going to be hard for conservatives to do what they want to do.
But if Trump is the nominee I will not vote for him, not because I have left the party but because the party has left me. That is not the same as taking my ball and going home. That is voting my conscience, and there is no way I could in good conscience vote for Hillary or Donald. They are equally awful in their own awful ways, and neither is conservative. She is worse in some ways and he is worse in others.
I regard my vote as a kind of affirmation of a candidate. I am under no illusion that my one little vote makes any difference in the overall election. Rather, a big reason for democracy is this: people affirm a candidate with their vote, which gives them a stake in that person in a way because they are partially responsible for their being the leader. They then feel psychologically connected to the leader and the nation. Sure some people vote for the other guy, but they understand that the candidate who gets the majority has the most support and then we all hope our candidate wins the next time. If I voted for either of these people, I will have given them my seal of approval, and I can’t do that for either of them.
I expect to see a third party candidate if these are the party nominees, and if that person is conservative, I will vote for him or her. Otherwise, I’ll leave it blank or write someone in. I think at his point that perhaps our nation needs to fall very low before we can see the problems we have brought on ourselves. I’ve been reading Roman history and see how this happened a few times in their glorious past, and that it didn’t end well. Electing horrible leaders is part of what brings countries down, and there isn’t much a single voter can do about that, but I will not be party to it.