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Why Kasich and Rubio Are Helping Donald Trump: A Theory
Absent Donald Trump quitting the Republican race, there is no conceivable way John Kasich or Marco Rubio becomes the Republican nominee. At this point, both of their campaign strategies must contain the line “And then, a miracle happens.” (The same line occurs in Obama’s economic plan.) At this point, they are spoiling the race for Ted Cruz, who could actually win.
Pundits have put forth theories as to why these two are continuing in the race. They suggest that by denying an outright majority to Trump, they can create a brokered convention and end up on the ticket, even of they are not the nominee. Alternately, it may be pure ego, or delusion. But I think their continued presence is to position themselves for 2020.
There are two articles of faith within the Republican Establishment:
- Donald Trump cannot win the national election.
- Whoever places second in a year when the Republicans lose is the frontrunner for the next election
If Trump loses, it will reinforce a certain popular narrative within the GOP that outsiders can’t win and should leave elections to the experts. Trump joins Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, and Todd Akin (even though Akin was neither a Tea Partier nor an outsider, he’s thrown in to enforce The Narrative) as cautionary examples against nominating outsiders.
So, Hillary wins — many Establishment Republicans are comfortable with that — and sets the stage for 2020. Historically, the “next-in-line” Republican will be nominated. Recently, though, the second-place finishers (Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012) have been bypassed in favor of more Establishment-friendly candidates. John Kasich will be 68 in 2020 … six years younger than Bernie Sanders is today. Marco Rubio can spend four years telling people how he could have beaten Hillary but was sidelined by the Trump phenomenon.
I will posit that I think the Conventional Wisdom of the Republican Establishment is wrong on both counts. But it doesn’t matter what I think. It matters what the leadership of the Republican Party thinks, and this is what I think they think.
Published in General
Your theory – really a pipe dream – is that somehow the to-date 60% (it will probably be more in the end) of the voters who are not backing Rubio or Kasich will be enthusiastic about one of them emerging as the nominee in a convention floor fight. You are much more likely to drive voters away or to vote Democratic out of spite than you are to win the election.
But you either discount this because you hold voters in contempt or you’re so absorbed by what you think should be you’re living in a world with a sky of a different color.
But no majority- not even close- for either one. And both lose in November. If you are going to lose in November anyway, then at least do it with an attractive candidate.
Your faith in this type of anticipatory polling which is so weak a tool it could not even predict the rise of Trump seems ill-advised in my view.
There is no way that the Republican’s have a brokered convention and not lose the general. The only possible way is if Trump dies, or he is caught on tape admitting he is a stalking goat for Hillary.
The only possible way to have not Trump or not Hillary is for Ted Cruz to go head-to-head with Trump and actually go into the convention with more delegates than Trump.
Even if Rubio wins FL and Kasich wins OH but then Kasich and Cruz immediately drop out endorsing Rubio I still think Trump goes into the convention with a lead. If that is the case the Trump voters stay home and Hillary wins.
Get ready for Hillary.
Why would anyone seriously think they have a chance to challenge Hillary in 2020? When she wins in November she will be there for eight years.
If Marco fell on his sword for the good of the Party, and threw his support to Cruz, he would be a hero and the front runner next time around. As to why he isn’t doing that, put me in the “delusional” camp.
Like Rand Paul, I think he would have if he hadn’t given up his Senate seat.
Unfortunately, he does have some significant sex and money scandals now coming to light, so it makes it harder to win a future office, like the Florida Governor.
All or nothing for Rubio right now.
I’m not talking about who voters would support in a convention. In a contested convention it’s a battle over the delegates. As I’ve mentioned before, the results of the primaries and caucuses would be moot in a contested convention.
I will admit to holding Trump voters in contempt. But contempt is a a classic conservative trait.
Nothing I said was based on any polling. That is, I wasn’t factoring that into my thinking.
A bit of a hijack, but I’m not convinced of that. There’s the Clinton ego to be sure, but between health and fatigue, I think it’s at least possible (still less than 50-50) that she doesn’t run. She’s running now to “go down in history.” Once that’s achieved, she may decide to give it a rest. It’ll be interesting to see if she picks an obvious successor as VP.
I suspect that he will shortly, but there’s really no need for it now.