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The Bern’s Declining Flicker
A quick update from a Millennial who’s been watching the race on the other side: Bernie’s not going to win. He got shellacked Saturday in South Carolina, doing significantly worse than expected. When your expected margin is losing by 38.8%, it takes losing by 47.5% to qualify as “significantly worse than expected.”
Bernie’s loss in South Carolina follows his loss in Nevada. The latter was due to his lack of support among Hispanic voters*, while the former was due to his lack of support among Black voters. With Super Tuesday featuring the large, minority-heavy states of Texas and Georgia, Sanders is looking at another rough night, though the contests in Massachusetts and Oklahoma look close.
In the longer run, Sanders is facing the prospect of running behind Clinton right up to the nomination. The proportional delegate allocation means even in states he wins, Clinton will still pick up a significant number of delegates, making her superdelegate lead even harder to overcome. He’s said he’ll stay in until the convention, but unless Clinton gets indicted, it’s hard to see him changing the dynamics of this race.
Why We Should Care:
Turnout is significantly lower on the Dem side, and all the enthusiastic supporters were going for Sanders. They are taking his losses hard, and one of the saddest things I’ve seen is the spike in Sanders donations that happen after every loss is announced. If the results on the Republican side depress you, I’d suggest visiting reddit.com/r/sandersforpresident tomorrow night or Wednesday morning, to see my fellow millennials throw bad money after good. Also, check out this account of Sanders phonebankers suggesting a black South Carolinian should vote for Sanders because “he is for welfare.” (Way down the page, hit “read more,” ctrl-F “welfare.”)
More generally, as lefties face the prospect of Clinton as their choice, I expect they’ll start turning their anger towards our side. While I’d be happy to see Trump finally get a serious vetting, if either Rubio or Cruz can present themselves as a viable alternative, they’ll start coming under heavy fire from the left as well. Given that the Dem candidate has terrible favorability ratings, and no realistic way to bring them up significantly, expect this to be one of the most negative general-election campaigns ever.
Bonus: Yes, Trump is less favorable. No, I don’t have a visual for Rubio/Cruz, though numbers I’ve seen show Cruz at around 0 and Rubio is around +10
*edit: first comment correctly states Bernie won by a narrow margin among Hispanics
Published in General
He won the Latino vote in Nevada.
He lost the Black.
I saw the numbers over late Saturday, and if I remember right turnout in SC was down about 30% from 2012.
So the big question for pollsters is how many Sanders supporters stay home on November 8th. If turnout runs even 20% less nationally for Democrats, is there any way Hillary can win?
I know the MSM would rather talk about Trump than the dumpster fire in their own party, but the dejection of many Democrats is delightful.
Let’s be serious. This whole Sanders thing is to buy time, pretend there is a real race, not a crowning. Of course both Bernie and Hillary think it’s real. That says a lot. Too bad we’re saddled with Trump or we could have a good laugh.
Dang, great catch.
Yeah it’s bad over there. Versus 2008,
Iowa: down 29%
New Hampshire: down 13% (Sanders big win)
Nevada: down 33%
South Carolina: down 31%
Overall: down 26% from 2008. The Republicans are also up 26% (from 2012) in the first four states. Almost as if Trump’s getting some disaffected Dem votes, exactly as many have been suggesting
LM, do you think Bernie’s discouraged millennial supporters will consider a young, fresh face like Cruz or Rubio or will they just stay home?
Excellent question. The supporters will dutifully march to the polls for Clinton, after railing on the Democratic Party Establishment for a month or two and the Republican Warmonger Police State Neofascist Nominee for a season.
The difference will be in their friends and acquaintances. Unlike Obama in 2008, the young Sanders supporters will stop flooding social media with positive pieces about the Dem nominee, and their friends and acquaintances who are less-engaged politically won’t be hearing about the glorious Dem alternative to the evil Republican. They’ll still hear everything evil about the Republican, but if the guy on the TV is obviously the opposite of everything bad said about him (like Reagan was, I’m told), there’s a chance to pick up their votes. Rubio or Cruz would both contrast nicely with Clinton, especially if they could do what Rubio did in the last debate and have some fun while they point out Clinton’s shortcomings. I think Rubio’s got the better shot here, but I’m a Rubio guy, so take that with a grain of salt.
The young people I know like Bernie because of the student loan business. Most are carrying a burdening debt load that rips their paychecks a new one. They can not stand Hillary, she’s old and shrill they say. If it’s not Bernie they won’t vote. It may be South Carolina all over for the democrats, low turn out. I just don’t hear them say anything about a republican candidate.
Rubio could make one heckuva play for the millennials, but he has to get bold and say some compassionate things his base would hate. His latest late night comic act might work for him with that group. If not, he can replace Colbert.
If you were wondering why Trump came up with “No one should die in the streets” it is because he is going after a percentage of those voters. The older died in to wool middle class democrats.
I wish Ted could make it, but he has got to stop running for President of Conservative Americans. I can’t see him pulling many voters from the other side.
LM, was it you or someone else that posted a poll showing Cruz doing well among younger age groups because of his opposition to the surveillance state?
Never a good plan to assume the other guys will not shoot.
Do they realize the free college thing is not retroactive?
Are you sure it’s not?
Perhaps folks who’ve been spending so much time not only urging conservatives not to vote Republican but boasting about that will take this opportunity to suppress the Democratic vote instead.
I think you are correct that if this is Clinton v Trump it will be the most negative campaign ever. The winner will be the one most successful in driving turnout down for their opponent. This doesn’t look to me like a get out the vote election.
Hmmm, a suppress the vote election. Might be fun.
Wasn’t me, and I’m under the impression he’s walked back that position now. No definitive info though
Fantastic analysis, Lazy_Millennial. :)
For the Democrats lost to Clinton and Sanders–that is, the 30 percent who didn’t show up to vote in the primaries–some of those votes are going to go to Trump.
In Massachusetts, not only are they voting for Trump, they are changing their registration to do so (via the Drudge Report): “Amid Trump Surge, 20,000 Massachusetts Voters Quit Democratic Party.”
The Republicans Trump loses will be made up for by Democrats who support him.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/29/donald-trump-georgia-rally-valdosta/81129964/
This is why they won’t stay home.
This generations cause! Donald Trump wants to make America racist again.
I suppose this means some who were “Feeling the Bern” finally got some topical cream.
As a conservative, I am disappointed. Three of the leading presidential candidates (Sanders, Clinton, Trump) are ignorant of, or contemptuous of, the principles of a constitutional republic built on the concept of a free people.
Sanders has some of the most radical end desires, but seems the least inclined of those three to demolish the Constitutional order and the rule of law to reach his particular end desires. Clinton and Trump have both said and/or strongly implied that they intend to ignore the Constitution and the rule of law, and to trample the fundamental rights of a free people to get their desired results, and both have histories that demonstrate those threats should be taken seriously.
I fear they only support him in the Republican primary. Once it is Trump versus an official Democrat, they will return to the fold.