Clinton Clinches Nomination Before Final Primaries; Sanders Not Quitting
That’s the news ahead of today’s votes in California, Montana, New Jersey, North Dakota, New Mexico, and South Dakota, Via the WSJ:
LONG BEACH, Calif.—Hillary Clinton secured the delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination Monday night, according a tally by the Associated Press, crossing a historic milestone as she campaigned in California and pushed to end a long presidential primary campaign on a high note. Mrs. Clinton, who was only 23 delegates shy of the 2,383 needed for victory after Sunday’s Puerto Rico primary, received commitments from additional delegates late Monday. Just a day before Tuesday’s contests in California and five other states, Mrs. Clinton emerged as her party’s presumptive nominee and the first woman to lead the ticket for a major U.S. political party. The former secretary of state had been expected to win the delegates needed to secure victory in Tuesday’s primaries, but a last-minute show of support from a number of superdelegates pushed her across the finish line a day earlier.
Bernie: The Man We Need
Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton by 13.5 percent last night. That’s just about the best thing we could have hoped for. He’s going to keep Clinton focused on him through the spring, without actually winning the nomination himself. Let me expand upon that.
A week ago at 538, Nate Silver analyzed what it would take for Sanders to get to a majority of pledged delegates. Based on demographics, previous voting patterns of those demographics, and Sanders’s current pledge deficit, here are the margins Silver predicted Sanders would need to get to a majority of pledged delegates by the end:
The Bern’s Declining Flicker
A quick update from a Millennial who’s been watching the race on the other side: Bernie’s not going to win. He got shellacked Saturday in South Carolina, doing significantly worse than expected. When your expected margin is losing by 38.8%, it takes losing by 47.5% to qualify as “significantly worse than expected.”
Bernie’s loss in South Carolina follows his loss in Nevada. The latter was due to his lack of support among Hispanic voters*, while the former was due to his lack of support among Black voters. With Super Tuesday featuring the large, minority-heavy states of Texas and Georgia, Sanders is looking at another rough night, though the contests in Massachusetts and Oklahoma look close.
In the longer run, Sanders is facing the prospect of running behind Clinton right up to the nomination. The proportional delegate allocation means even in states he wins, Clinton will still pick up a significant number of delegates, making her superdelegate lead even harder to overcome. He’s said he’ll stay in until the convention, but unless Clinton gets indicted, it’s hard to see him changing the dynamics of this race.
The Most Consequential Development of the Primary Season
No, not the Trump phenomenon, which I regard as the re-emergence of the Perot-Buchanan voter, though that’s certainly important. But long-term, that won’t be as big a turning point in American politics as what I’m talking about: the embrace of socialism by millennials. We’re the future, and we’ve fallen in love with what we imagine Sweden is like. Some of us will be voting this way for decades to come.
Having written before that I think Sanders will win NH but fizzle out everywhere else, I’m now going to start harping on the long-term ramifications of the campaign. This post was prompted by an excellent write-up in the Orange County Register, which I think is worth your time.
Google Search the Democratic Candidates
The first rule of the Internet is clear your Google searches. You don’t want people to know what you’re curious about. Google is what campus progressives call a safe space, and if you want to know how many calories are in that calzone you just ate or what peculiar sex practices are popular in Iowa, then that’s your business.
Clinton Announces She’s for Taxpayer-funded Abortions
Via NRO, Hillary Clinton wants to end the Hyde Amendment, which bans the use of federal funds for abortion except in cases of rape, incest, or danger to the life of the mother. Via C-SPAN, here’s the relevant portion of the speech in question, in which she also praises Planned Parenthood, whose political action group has already endorsed her for president.
Hillary: Sanders Plan for US Billionaires to Self-deport “Unworkable”
BURLINGTON, VT — Delivering a speech on income inequality yesterday, presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (Workers Party, Vermont) called on US billionaires to self-deport. “We’re not going to round them up” said Sanders. “The answer is self-deportation, which is people deciding they can do better by going elsewhere due to a draconian tax code.”
Sanders’ presidential rival Hillary Clinton sharply criticized the proposal, calling self-deportation “unworkable.” Ms. Clinton went on to ridicule the notion that the authorities are going to “round up the 537 billionaires living in America’s shadows and put them in electric cars and private planes bound for a friendlier tax environment. Where are these people expected to go?” asked Ms. Clinton rhetorically, “Switzerland?” Ms. Clinton then painted a chaotic refugee crisis in which undocumented billionaires and their families are forced to traverse the uncharted private airfields and ski resorts of Zurich, Vail, and St. Tropez.
It’s (Well Past) Time to Worry about Sanders
Sen. Bernie Sanders raised $26 million in Q3, and from 650,000 individuals. This is only $2 million less than Clinton raised in Q3, and the broad base of support means he’ll be able to raise more in the future. Sanders stands a great chance to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, and would get further bumps in support from these wins. I don’t see his supporters switching to Clinton, but as the scandals continue, I can see Clinton supporters looking elsewhere. Also, in 2007, Edwards was in the race, which lowered Clinton’s support. When Biden enters, the pattern will repeat.
Sanders is drawing huge amounts of small-dollar donations via the Web. That means two important things: (1) Sanders has been able to concentrate on meeting and greeting potential voters rather than spending his time courting donors, and (2) He has been able to conserve money because he isn’t spending cash on lavish events for donors.
There’s a very significant chance Sanders wins the nomination. This is the year for outsiders. He’s got energy, momentum, and is less vulnerable to character assassination than Clinton. At the very least, we have to stop taking it for granted that our nominee will be facing Clinton in the general.
