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New Hampshire Results: What to Watch For This Evening
Here’s an abbreviated version of my earlier argument about how the New Hampshire primary will be spun and what to look for to keep up with the media mavens manipulating the message.
Most eyes will be on Rubio, who won the post-Iowa spin but stumbled during Saturday’s debate (which reminds me of Cruz’s stumbles immediately preceding Iowa, which should provide hope for Rubio supporters). This is fair, because this is Rubio’s moment to overperform.
Where are Trump’s numbers? If he underperforms the polls as he did in Iowa, look for some “trouble ahead” stories.
Who’s third place? Hard as it is to understand at first glance, Rubio needs Cruz to come in third so the race narrows after New Hampshire. Rubio has some structural advantages after Super Tuesday and, therefore, needs to eliminate Christie, Kasich, and Bush before South Carolina.
Does Rubio overperform? The most recent RCP average has Rubio in second with 14 percent: if he hits 20 when the votes are actually counted, #Marcomentum is for real. If he can’t get more than a point or two ahead of his nearest rival (especially if it’s Cruz) he’ll have a hard time with the spin.
Good luck to all of the candidates this evening!
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He seems to have a vote ceiling that insures he’ll fade once the field is winnowed to 2 candidates besides himself.
He has plenty of time to develop a ground game if it becomes obvious that is what is hurting him.
My prediction:
Trump: 26%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 16%
Cruz 14%
Bush 12%
Christie 8%
One can hope.
That is certainly my hope!
Heard someone interviewed early this morning talking about how she changed her vote once she got into the booth. She dropped Kasich in favor of Bush. Not much difference in my book.
It would be better if Kasich passed Rubio than Bush. Kasich has no money left and no infrastructure moving forward. He also has no states he can win after NH until mid March.
But what happens if donors and Bush loyalists angered by Marco’s “betrayal” decide to transfer Bush’s infrastructure to Kasich?
I jump off a bridge.
I need a bucket.
He becomes the next president.
Kasich or Rubio?
Kasich, he would win the general in a walk. It would also probably ensure we were stuck with Obamacare which makes me weep, but I’m pretty sure most of Obamacare is more or less here to stay no matter what happens.
I don’t know how we “repeal and replace” with the Obamacare infrastructure already in place. I think something like buying off the poor by giving them cash to buy plans would be the only way to get away with it.
In my ideal world, you get rid of it, make it completely free market, and I take guilty pleasure in watching everyone scramble… as of now I haven’t even heard of a thought out plan of what to replace it with. I’m afraid with a Republican President we’ll find that Congress suddenly hesitates in repealing it now that it should theoretically pass.
The media would do there best to make Kasich seem like the most evil right wing loon imaginable. His natural abrasiveness and unlikability would help them tremendously. Kasich is an obnoxious jerk. He will not wear well in the spotlight of the general.
We’d also hear an awful lot about his dangerous brand of mixing religion and government. I’m not even convinced he could win reelection in Ohio in a competitive year.
Moderate democrats like him. Many prefer him to Hilary. He’s younger than both Democrats and will look good compared to them. He’d be a true moderate and that’s what the median voter really wants.
It’s terrible, but I’m pretty sure it’s true.