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Political Predictions 2016
The hangovers should be wearing off or at least minimized with some comfort food. The 2015 reviews are in and they aren’t good, but that’s okay. God gave us a great big windshield and tiny rearview mirror.
It is time for political predictions and wagering is encouraged.
Every quadrennial election is the most important and/or pivotal in our nation’s history. That trend continues in this new year.
Ricochet is at its best when everyone participates and adds new categories, but we need a starting point. Please offer your predictions of the following and feel free to include a brief (brief: men’s underwear or less than 10,000 words — I am looking at you Ryan M, James Madison, and James of England) narrative supporting your positions.
Republican Primary: Who is the nominee and how do they get there? Bonus points for predicting a running mate.
Democrat Primary: Who is the nominee and how do they get there? Bonus points for predicting a running mate.
General Election: Who wins. Any surprises in the swing states?
Senate: Do Republicans retain a majority? The map is stacked against them this year. If you predict a Republican President does he or she have coattails? Bonus points: if Republicans retain the Senate do they increase their margin or does it dip slightly?
House of Representatives: I’ve not seen any plausible scenarios that this goes back to the Democrats, but feel free to prove that conventional wisdom incorrect. Do Republicans increase their margin?
Published in Politics
I think HRC will have to perform exceptionally bad to overcome the hell that your Republican convention scenario will create.
Bold prediction.
I think others including me are overlooking issues like this. Well done Team.
Please clarify the bold.
This already seems to be playing out in opinion polls. Interesting to see if it translates to votes.
Paul Ryan may be key here.
For the media it would be a field day (although there would be liberal commentary about the “grownups in the room” taking responsibility), but it would assuage mainstream conservatives and have little impact on LIVs, who wouldn’t give two figs about the ramifications of a brokered convention.
How do you think it would play with limited government Tea Party types?
Republicans watch on Election night as state after state falls into the Democratic column. Just as in 2012 every toss-up purple state goes red, plus several new ones.
“How did we lose THAT state?” conservatives ask themselves all across the country. They blame their candidates, the campaign, the millennials, the media and their own messaging.
Stop All Immigration Now.
You forgot to include libertarians, the Tea Party, and others who may have common cause with Republican priorities, but treasure individual liberty over donor$.
Republican primary: Cruz and Trump run neck-and-neck in Iowa on the night of the caucus when attendants begin to vote strategically and put Cruz well over the top. Trump crushes the opposition in New Hampshire and South Carolina disproving the theory Trump’s voters won’t show up. Nevada caucus splits between Rubio and Cruz. Trump and Cruz compete in the SEC primaries with Trump winning deep south, Cruz winning Texas and Oklahoma, and Rubio Massachusetts. Trump has edge in delegate count. Trump and Cruz continue slugging it out until March 15. Trump wins Florida and Rubio drops out soon after as his money dries up. Panic sets in the RNC and Hillary openly gloats. Cruz has a very good night the next week with western states and Rubio out. April proves a very good month for Trump and he begins to make overtures to Cruz. By the time of the convention, a deal has been worked out. Cruz has no desire to be on the ticket. In a surprising move, Trump goes to Hollywood for his VP: Angelina Jolie.
Democratic primary: Hillary crowned and chooses Debbie Stabenow as VP.
General Election: Trump and events constantly shift the battlefield rapidly and Hillary is perpetually flat-footed. The international situation continues to deteriorate as there are ISIS attacks all over the world, and the Saudi government falls sending oil from $30 to over $150/bbl. Obama’s floor in polling cracks and he is in free fall. Trump wins.
The most entertaining result would be a President Trump facing a Democratic controlled House and Senate.
My official guesstimate:
R Primary – Trump leverages his surpringly large number of votes and delegates into a prime time speaking slot where he graciously declines the second spot on a Cruz ticket. Mitch Daniels accepts the second spot.
D Primary – Hillary drops out of the race after New Hampshire for health reasons, because spending more time with her family is not credible. Martin O’Malley leads the field of sacrificial lambs.
Cruz wins a convincing victory but Hillary’s absence from the race leads to four long years of rent garments, gnashing of teeth and wearing of ashes by the media and elites. Democrats foresee a return from exile with Barrack Obama’s announcement of a government in exile.
Senate/House – Rs retain control but the leadership continues to do a creditable impression of the dog who caught the car.
Well, Scalia and Kennedy are 76, which means they’ll have to make it to perhaps 84 to outlast Felony.
I like the idea of prominent Trump speaking spot. I dislike any mention of Mitch Daniels.
Fair enough. Who is your preferred candidate?
If they’re serious about limited government, they won’t support Trump.
Also I think you overestimate the level of Trump’s support vs. the number of people he will turn off. The association of Trump with Cruz is shallow and misleading based on nothing more than blind anti-establishmentism. The two have nothing in common ideologically. I would bet that a much higher percentage of Rubio supporters would be willing if not happy to vote for Cruz than Trump.
The whole Trump phenomenon has left me very distrusting of my instincts and predictions. So, I’ll just make one comment for all those who suggest that putting Fiorina on the ticket negates the “woman” issue.
No.
Just no.
It won’t make a bit of difference. To feminists, HRC is the right woman and Fiorina isn’t. To non-feminists, a woman doesn’t matter. My opinion is based on the progressives and feminists I know in both a red state (GA) and in my home of lovely Northern Virginia. They could care less about Fiorina. Given that Rubio (and Cruz) suffer from the same thing Obama did (little to no executive leadership experience), I think he should pick a governor (preferably older) as VP. While Fiorina does have leadership experience, and I’d love to see her in leadership, he name on the ticket will not “negate” the HRC woman factor in any significant way
Part of me is frightened by this scenario and part of me is intrigued enough that I would pay to see a debate stunt like the one described above.
UF, I don’t think the limited government types have delusions about Trump. I am asking from an enthusiasm standpoint and supporting whoever the nominee is if there is perception of a corrupt convention.
@BrentB67- I wrote “Russia and China will have air superiority in 3-5 years” because I’ve read articles like these:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/05/26/budget-cuts-impact-us-ability-to-fight-enemy-air-force-general-warns0.html
http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/05/12/us-air-force-chief-staff-gen-mark-welsh-iii-us-losing-air-superiority
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-china-russia-plan-crush-americas-stealth-aircraft-13708
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/10/05/us-russia-vladimir-putin-syria-ukraine-american-military-plans/73147344/
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-russian-air-forces-super-weapon-beware-the-pak-fa-11742
http://defensetech.org/2014/12/04/report-chinese-air-force-closes-gap-with-u-s/
http://news.usni.org/2014/11/05/u-s-pilots-say-new-chinese-stealth-fighter-become-equal-f-22-f-35
Everybody is counting out Bernie Sanders, but he will win NH and a few other states like WA, OR, VA, CO, etc. Unfortunately most of these states are not early in the primary and unlike Obama he won’t draw the black vote so he will ultimately lose to Hillary – my prediction is that the dem primary will not be a cake walk for Hillary.
The Republican primary is way too early to predict. Everybody is on the Rubio bandwagon for the establishment pick, but I think Chris Christie gets the nod when he places second in NH to Trump. Trump and Cruz go into the last week of primaries with 2/3 of the delegates between them and the rest spreadout over a weakened but still eligible field. The establishment make a last ditch effort to win the CA delegates for their preferred candidate to force a brokered convention.
In any outcome of the primaries, the general is a slugfest with either a weak Republican victory, or a Dem electoral college blowout as in 2012. The electoral college map favors the Dem’s too heavily to see a R electoral college blowout.
Senate split 50/50 but the R’s hold handily onto the house.
Thank you for mentioning him. He raised $33M last quarter. He should not be disregarded.
I can’t offer much of a prediction of my own, except that I’d love to see much of this happen.
Between Rubio and Cruz, my preference is for whichever has the better chance of winning a general election. I am thinking that Rubio has a much better shot than Cruz, but I’d be happy with either one.
The only prediction I will give is that if Trump is nominated (which I am also predicting he won’t be), he would lose in a bigger landslide than either McCain or Romney.
Could you cite the specific passage you’re thinking of? I couldn’t find anything involving Cruz discussing the founding in this.
I don’t have a strong prediction. I reckon the betting markets have it about right with Rubio as the most likely winner, but with a little better than a one in three chance. Along those lines, this seems like the most likely path, but not a very likely path.
GOP: Rubio comes third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and wins in South Carolina and Nevada. Super Tuesday sees Cruz win six states and a delegate majority, Trump win Tennessee, and Rubio win seven states. The following Saturday, Rubio wins Maine, Kansas, and Kentucky, while Cruz wins Louisiana. The map at this point develops a narrative of Cruz as a regional candidate, and (a separate claim), Rubio goes on to win almost every remaining state, with the notable exception of Mississippi.
I’ve no idea who the VP will be; my preferences have shifted from Martinez to Haley, but there’s a long list of other highly plausible candidates.
Dem: Clinton wins every primary. Julian Castro.
Presidential General: Narrow GOP win after Cruz behaves decently at the Convention, giving a speech that encourages the party to defeat Clinton. Ideally Trump gives a somewhat reasonable speech, too.
Congressional General: We lose New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Illinois senate seats, gain Nevada, and keep Florida while breaking even in the House.
Gubernatorial: We win West Virginia and Missouri, while retaining all previous gains, for a record breaking level of GOP control.
James, thanks for the additional detail
Fellings. All feelings. Aka, emotion. Show me how,the Electoral College elects Cruz. And a swelling evangelist vote generates an enormous reaction from women and pro-abortion. And why are independents going to break for “shut down Ted?” How does Rev. Cruz appeal to young voters who are voting more, tied into the Democratic social media network, and heavily oriented to tolerance about social issues opposed by Cruz. And let’s face it, neither Cruz or Trump will carry the Hispanic vote, which will be mobilized like never before.
I can’t get to Cruz, Trump or even Christie when I look at a map. This is not feelings. This is about Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia. Sorry.
When I look, Cruz or Trump cost 4 to 6 senate seats. Also, I love Scott. But he is not able to keep up. He would “Palin” (a new verb) in short order.
And Cruz is shrewd, he will pick a moderate woman, Kelly Ayotte. She will say, not at this time. Then it’s down to Mike Lee or the Freedom caucus. Don’t be surprised if many GOP voters just stay home. Remember, when you make career attacking your friends and just about every Republican, they don’t tend to feel warm and fuzzy. Cruz unfortunately can’t carry much more the 70-80% of the GOP, will lose 60% of independents, and will carry 1-2% of the Democrats for a popular vote of something close to say, 2-6% less than Romney.
My “feelings,” if it’s Trump or Cruz, Hillary wins 295 Electoral votes, Senate is 50 Dem + 2 Independents, House is 220 GOP/Freedom caucus, good-bye Second Amendment, hello Supreme Court Justices Gillibrand, Cuomo and Harris. Feelings! But all based on the electoral map.
One other thing, a massive turnout will favor Dems, not Republicans. Check out the data.
Wild cards: Hillary is indicted. Bill bimbos, again. Hillary picks Hannibal Lechter as VP. He eats her.
You’re right that a brokered convention is a terrible idea. If nothing else it’ll just feed into the EDS’ers conspiracy theorizing. I’m just saying that “enthusiasm” works both ways, and I know several people (myself included) who will vote for literally anybody from Kasich to Cruz, but not Trump.
What is EDS? I meant to ask earlier.
Thank you
From your lips to God’s ear
Republican Primary – I hate to be a fencesitter, but either Trump wins or Cruz/Rubio wins and Trump breaks his promise and runs as a third party. Either way the Republicans go down in disastrous defeat. Running mate for Trump, Christie. Running mate for Cruz/Rubio, Rubio/Cruz.
Democratic Primary – HRC in a walk. Her running mate will be someone almost totally obscure so as not to upstage her highness.
General Election – HRC in the biggest landslide since LBJ. Even the South goes HRC.
Senate – If Trump is nominee, conservatives stay home en masse and the Senate flips. If Cruz/Rubio just enough conservatives stay home in dismay that it splits 50-50. Dem VP casts the deciding majority vote.
House – Republican majority slips to 10 seats effectively giving Congress to the Dems.
Another all Democrat Congress (effectively) with HRC as president and we’re looking at a repeat of the Obama first 2 years except in this case it lasts for the entire 8 years of the Clinton presidency. The Republican party becomes a rump party.
I hate being such a pessimist but I’ll be 64 in 2016 and looking back, except for the Reagan interregnum, it’s been all downhill. The deadly fruit of decay started ripening on 11/22/1963 but I believe the seeds were planted in March of 1933.
Is that due to the overwhelming somnolence factor?
I thought that Trump would run as a third party, too, but it’s probably too late for him to do so now. He’s already missed the ballot deadlines in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, the most obvious states for a third party effort to swing the result.
He can’t file as a third party in Texas any longer either.