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Political Predictions 2016
The hangovers should be wearing off or at least minimized with some comfort food. The 2015 reviews are in and they aren’t good, but that’s okay. God gave us a great big windshield and tiny rearview mirror.
It is time for political predictions and wagering is encouraged.
Every quadrennial election is the most important and/or pivotal in our nation’s history. That trend continues in this new year.
Ricochet is at its best when everyone participates and adds new categories, but we need a starting point. Please offer your predictions of the following and feel free to include a brief (brief: men’s underwear or less than 10,000 words — I am looking at you Ryan M, James Madison, and James of England) narrative supporting your positions.
Republican Primary: Who is the nominee and how do they get there? Bonus points for predicting a running mate.
Democrat Primary: Who is the nominee and how do they get there? Bonus points for predicting a running mate.
General Election: Who wins. Any surprises in the swing states?
Senate: Do Republicans retain a majority? The map is stacked against them this year. If you predict a Republican President does he or she have coattails? Bonus points: if Republicans retain the Senate do they increase their margin or does it dip slightly?
House of Representatives: I’ve not seen any plausible scenarios that this goes back to the Democrats, but feel free to prove that conventional wisdom incorrect. Do Republicans increase their margin?
Published in Politics
Trump wins NH, SC, and then sweeps super Tuesday to sew up the nomination.
Hillary wins easily after sweeping IA, and NH.
Trump selects Cruz as running mate to keep too many conservatives from staying home. Hillary selects Cory Booker.
Hillary wins over 330 electoral votes and the Republicans lose the Senate, but keep the house barely.
Justices Scalia and Ginsburg retire from the Supreme Court and we get a solid leftist court that overturns Heller, Citizens United, etc. and that’s when the bad stuff starts happening.
Rep. Primary: Donald Trump will win the nomination by getting pluralities in most of the states, and the establishment will be unable to mount an effective floor fight. He will select the most establishment character who would be willing to run with him, probably Ted Cruz.
Dem Primary: Hillary Clinton with Bernie Sanders as her VP.
General: Hillary Clinton will get a landslide in the Electoral College, but only a plurality of the votes. I think a third party candidate will grab a lot of the disaffected Republicans, and if they are libertarian, a few Democrats. They won’t have a majority in any states though.
House and Senate: Republicans hold, but lose seats in both.
Republican Primary: Who is the nominee and how do they get there? Marco Rubio, stayed close in early states (Iowa, NH, and SC), and shines in SEC primary. Running mate: Fiorina.
Democrat Primary: Who is the nominee and how do they get there? Hillary Clinton. Getsd there the Clinton way: fraud and will to power.
General Election: President Marco Rubio. Wins Florida, Ohio, NC, and Virginia. Hillary’s scandals and Rubio’s polished persona force Hillary to spend lavishly in purple states.
Senate: Do Republicans retain a majority? Yes, but lose one net seat. They lose Illinois and Wisconsin (hold in NH and elsewhere), but pick of Nevada.
House of Representatives: Republicans hold (lose 5-7 seats).
This may be hopelessly optimistic, but I need to believe.
Rubio vs Clinton. Rubio wins. They get there by vote counting.
Senate and House stay same. Why? I don’t know. He plays third. And I don’t even know what I’m talking about.
Yeah, but the cat has a righteous track record.
If Rubio is the nominee, I will not vote, but sit home is all I will do. If Kasich somehow slithers onto the ticket though, I will actively vote Hillary out of pure spite.
Republican Primary: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump takes New Hampshire, close fight in South Carolina leads to extended battle. Bush/Christie/Kasich stay in too long and doom a desperate, last minute blitz for Rubio. Possible brokered convention but an early Cruz surrender leads to a Trump/Cruz unity ticket. Media and establishment of both parties condemn the decision and predict landslide victory for Democrats.
Democrat Primary: Clinton secures nomination easily. Trump dominates the topic of discussion during their convention. Early defections start as some interest groups and Bernie fans boycott the convention.
General Election: Record turnout leads to massive landslide victory for Trump/Cruz over Clinton/Someone. Bonus points if “white, working class election” is said extensively by both wings despite garnering better support among minorities than Romney/McCain.
House/Senate: Brutal year for Republican incumbents in primaries, but most survive and Republicans retain both chambers.
Trump sulks home after finishing without a victory in the first three contests. No republican gains a majority and the convention goes to Scott walker as a compromise, who wisely chooses Nikki Haley or the lady senator from NH as veep.
Bernie takes Iowa and especially NH. Clinton takes SC with ease but is forced out of the race due to poor health when the leaked FBI report that Obama has been suppressing shows her active collusion with three foreign powers, only two of them being governments, on the receipt of her emails as SOS. The triumphant Bernie takes Liz Warren for veep and promises a full pardon to Herself.
273 votes in the electoral college for Walker but several electors are compromised by sudden deaths in their families and Bernie is elected, to a congress that is more R than now. None of which matters because R Congresscritters are such wussies.
I would like to see a Rubio/Fiorina ticket destroy Herself/Whomever but I think it will be Trump vs. Herself. With these two, the VP nominees don’t matter. It will be an ugly campaign and will require a Hunter S. Thompson type to be able to fully explain what is happening (whatever happened to Carthago – he always had keen insight and would be the perfect one to report on the carnage – but perhaps the whipped cream did do him in).
As a Catholic bonus for you Brent, Pope Francis will rock the Catholic world and allow communion for the divorced and remarried and then resign due to health reasons.
That’s all I got.
Happy New Year.
My prediction? Pain.
Republican primary: Cruz beats Trump handily in Iowa, and Rubio edges Trump in New Hampshire after a late surge (helped by Jeb! dropping out! after finishing fourth! or fifth! in Iowa!). (The hot new conspiracy theory of 2016 will be that one or both of those states were stolen from Trump.) Rubio ends up with the nomination, and chooses a governor who is not John Kasich (who has too many problems with the base). My guess is Scott Walker, but Terry Branstad of Iowa, Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Larry Hogan of Maryland, and Paul LePage of Maine are also possibilities. Bruce Rauner of Illinois is a possibility if he can do something about his state’s finances, as is Rick Snyder of Michigan unless the water scandal in Flint sinks him. I’ll add Doug Ducey of Arizona to get brownie points in case Jon Gabriel is reading this.
Democratic primary: Hillary Clinton wins Iowa. Bernie Sanders narrowly wins New Hampshire, but Hillary sweeps South Carolina, Nevada, and every Super Tuesday state except Massachusetts. She picks former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer as her running mate.
General election: Rubio/Walker wins a narrow (51-48%) victory over Clinton/Schweitzer. Pennsylvania goes red and Scott Walker improves to 4-0 in Wisconsin. President Obama continues implementing his more unpopular agenda items by executive order, which becomes a problem for Hillary. Once it becomes apparent that a Republican might actually win, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer retire from the Supreme Court.
Forgot to add on the last one: The Clinton campaign will ask Obama to relent with the executive orders. He won’t.
Congress: In the House, Republicans will have a net loss in the high single digits, but maintain control. In the Senate, Democrats pick up two or three out of Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Florida, and Ohio, and Republicans pick up Nevada. John McCain’s re-election (in both the primary and general) is closer than expected.
If I predict Larry Kudlow winning in Connecticut, do I get to take over his podcast if he actually does win?
Republican primary: After all the buildup, Trump wins no primaries and fails to garner many delegates, a result of disproportionate support from infrequent, low-information voters. Bush bows out early and declines to endorse. Marco Rubio prevails after a protracted, nasty fight against Cruz. He selects Carly Fiorina has his running mate. Trump threatens an independent run long into the summer, but eventually steps aside.
Democratic primary: HRC clinches nomination easily as The Bern never broadens his coalition beyond white, college-educated liberals. However the D convention is the most turbulent since 1968, rocked with protests, and HRC withdraws at the last minute, citing health reasons. Eventually, Elizabeth Warren emerges with the nomination, and selects Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper as her running mate in an attempt to capture more moderate voters. The selection misfires, as Warren and Hickenlooper fail to gel as a team and blacks and Hispanics feel slighted.
Senate: Dems hold CO and take FL, PA, NH, WI and IL, leaving Senate at 50/50 (2 independents caucusing with Dems).
House: R hold after losing 21 seats.
General election: To win, Republicans need to battle demographic headwinds, a widening gender gap and pervasive media bias, and have a lot of luck. Warren alienates many moderates, and energizes the conservative opposition. Rubio/Fiorina take Romney states and also win FL, IA, NH and NV, resulting in a tie with 269 electoral votes. The election is decided in Congress, with House selecting Rubio and Senate electing Hickenlooper.
Bold.
Didn’t mean to personalize any criticism; really a general reaction to an overblown definition of “elites” that is gaining traction across many discussions. I’ve probably thrown the term around recklessly. But there is the new hoi polloism which is riffing off Trump’s billionaire populism (a mixed gift that conservatives could profit from) and is classing Cruz (preposterously) and Rubio (wrong on immigration but more conservative than Reagan) as RINO quislings. We have a national capitol and financial/publishing capital located 200 miles apart on the East coast. Sure I’d prefer that 90% of political decisions be made in 50 state capitols and 2500 county seats and that more financial planning be controlled by 320 million responsible citizens. Reality is many talented, well-educated and accomplished conservatives have fought for years within that reflexively liberal and hostile Globe-Post bubble. And now they are traitors, RINOs, and can’t buy pants because they find The Donald distasteful. Mona Charen (Ivy League), Jonah Goldberg (not Ivy League), Charles Cooke (Oxford) and Kevin Williamson (not Oxford, not even Ole Miss) are now David Gergens. These people deserve gratitude for the good fight, not insults and slanders.
I do share your serious concern that the GOP DC political power-brokers will try to undercut Cruz if he wins the nomination.
That’s when we separate the conservative wheat from the centrist chaff in the GOP.
I am glad this made it to the front page. Some very interesting predictions.
Of what I’ve read so far, I feel this is the most likely outcome.
That said, what the heck do I know? Carry on.
Are you suggesting that Clubber Lang might make someone an interesting running mate?
Some remarkably detailed, call’em like you see’em prognostications. I salute you all. As for myself I frankly have no clue although I sense MIKE LAROCHE might be on point with a prediction of “pain”. Have a lovely evening everyone.
Republican Primary: As a previous poster or two said, Trump’s popularity fails to be realized in actual votes. Rubio edges Cruz in a close battle. In a show of unity, Rubio chooses Cruz as his running mate.
Democrat Primary: Felony in a walk. There will be little suspense here, maybe a bit around her various legal troubles and health concerns but largely a non-event.
General Election: The media stunts in Felony’s favor will make the Candy Crowley kerfuffle look tame by comparison. That combined with the fem-factor have Felony winning in a landslide.
Senate: Republicans lose a number of seats but maintain a slim majority.
House of Representatives: The GOP retains control, under Speak Ryan. The moment no one is waiting for.
I think the previous poster is right, at least two of the justices retire giving the Progs their much desired court majority and they hit the accelerator on the nations decline.
I would LOVE to be wrong about well….all of this. But I don’t think I will be.
I only have one minor prediction. If a high enough profile candidate can be found, Hillary will choose a minority lesbian activist as VP.
Interesting hypotheses on POTUS and Congress. Speculations on Supreme Court are less plausible. No way Ginsburg and Breyer retire if a GOP win is imminent. Chance of replacement in 2016 is lower than John Edwards nomination. Doubt an appeals court opening will be filled this year. Only way Scalia retires during a Clinton presidency is feet first and horizontal.
Wanda Sykes? (Okay, not so much of an activist, but she could play the part.)
Only Trump will touch this one with his signature tact (which is why predicting a general involving Trump is like predicting the Super Bowl played with a nerf ball), but aren’t we perhaps getting a minority lesbian activist as First Lady? Understand the Trump fan objection to the bunga bunga charges. Compared to Hill and Bill and Huma and Carlos Danger? That White House will look like the Wimbledon friends box from the early-80s.
Fear not, both the justices I mentioned are liberals, so even if Obama manages to get his nominees through, it’ll be a wash.
Did I really just say “fear not”? I must still be in Christmas mode…
GOP Primary: As others have said, Trump does surprisingly poorly once the votes actually count. The primary comes down to Rubio and Cruz who both surprise everyone by running a congenial, “May the best man win,” campaign focusing all their fire on Hillary. Some EDS sufferers turn on Cruz because he’s not attacking Rubio enough. In the end Rubio/Fiorina pull it out. Kasich refuses to endorse either man, but this backfires Rubio is able to play the “Too conservative for the Establishment” card.
Dem Primary: Hillary in a landslide. Julian Castro gets the honor of being eaten alive on national TV by Fiorina.
General: Rubio/Fiorina win in a squeaker, taking Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina.
Congress: The GOP loses seats in both houses, but manage to hang on to their majorities.
Other: Rubio promises to put Cruz on the Supreme Court. One or both of Ginsburg or Breyer tries to pre-empt this by retiring while Obama is still in office, but in a surprising display of cojones, the Senate manages to stall until Rubio is sworn in. John McCain leaves the Republican Party after voting for Obama’s SCOTUS nominee.
The economy, ISIS, and Russian, Iranian and Chinese adventurism gives a major victory to Trump/Rubio or Trump/Cruz.
Hillary will win after lifeless, dull primaries followed by a dispirited, plodding convention, in the context of a severe recession and more ISIS attacks.
The stock market had its first yearly decline since 2008, and in 2016 Obama’s anemic US recovery ends as a new recession begins which is aggravated by an weak world economy. I expect the economy to stagnate and enter a steep recession by March or April.
“Weakness, history has shown, is often provocative”- Dwight Eisenhower. I just saw a report that the military is running out of bombs to use against ISIS, after hearing earlier this year that Russia and China will have air superiority in 3-5 years. Our gutted-by-Obama military’s weaknesses, and the consequences that will flow from that, combined with Obama’s failed, feckless foreign policy, and more ISIS attacks here and abroad, will become too hard to ignore, even to LIVs. Trump’s confidence, toughness and nationalism will be appealing in that context, and carry him to victory.
Republicans win a landslide, and increase their senate and house majorities.
The hard work then begins, as Americans will resist entitlement reform tooth and nail. By dint of eloquence (Rubio), or a commanding, confident character (Trump), or a blunt, humorous style with bravado (Christie or Trump), the Republican president will make reforms squeak through.
Yes, I’m very optimistic.
Sorry, double post
GOP: Trump continues to flood media to stay in lead, RNC finally steps in by convention to keep him out. Rubio wins, chooses Fiorina to disarm HRC gender angle.
DEMS: HRC handily wins nod, taps Warren to keep Sanders voters and maintain War on Women narrative.
GENERAL: Rubio wins after debates (particularly VP debates which make huge headlines) destroy HRC optics. Congress sees GOP secure majorities due to HRC’s bad performance.