Tag: Predictions

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“My chances of being PM are about as good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or my being reincarnated as an olive.” —Boris Johnson (in 2004) More

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Jim and Greg conclude the Three Martini Lunch Award season by announcing their choices for person of the year and turncoat of the year. They also make their fearless predictions for 2020.

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Young people and commentary about them tend to focus a lot on the present. But what will the future that Millennials and younger generations inherit actually look like? Jack enlists R Street Institute Technology and Innovation Resident Fellow Caleb Watney to return to the podcast for some big-picture thinking about what the future might hold.

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Are Brady and the Patriots going to romp all over the Eagles? Or does the Eagle defense find a way to mitigate Brady and score just enough to win? Close game or blow out? High scoring or a defensive battle? I have no love for either team. Actually I can’t stand both. But Tom Brady […]

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Welcome to the Harvard Lunch Club Political Podcast for January 3, 2018 – O.M.G. it’s 2018! It is the Crimson Crystal Ball edition of the show with your hosts fortune-teller Todd Feinburg and Swami Mike Stopa. We will peer into the future, part the enveloping mists of chaos and tell you what you can expect in the coming year and perhaps beyond! Here are, yes, our much-awaited predictions for 2018! Can you afford *not* to listen?

We will also discuss a column from the New York Times which, gasp, gives begrudging credit to Trump’s deregulation efforts for the economic revival we are enjoying, including the optimism and investment by the business community even before the tax breaks became a reality (or even before they had moved very far along).

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America reveal their choices for the biggest Three Martini Lunch award categories. They explain their choices for Person of the Year, as Jim names someone he once dismissed as unserious and Greg selects a large group of people. They also hold nothing back in detailing which people most egregiously turned their backs on conservative principles in 2017. And they ditch their traditional New Year’s resolutions to offer fearless predictions for 2018. Happy New Year to all of our wonderful listeners. We will return on January 2, 2018.

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President Obama has been the King of Presidential Pardons, dispensing them like Helloween Candy. As he ends his term in the White House, that list is going to get mighty long. Jessie Jackson Jr has called on Obama to issue Mass-Pardons, while Bowe Bergdahl is also petitioning for one. Therefore, to the Ricochet members only: Who do you think […]

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Member Post

 

Mine didn’t. But @probablecause did ask an interesting question, which @thewhetherman and I have now answered: The Whether Man: More

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America offer their predictions for Election Day 2016. Jim and Greg state their final electoral college results and go over each of the key swing states. They also predict the final balance in the U.S. Senate come January and go through each of those key races. And they discuss what the numbers in the U.S House of Representatives will look like.

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Now that we are right on top of the elections lets make some predictions with some hard political analysis. I don’t want this to be another Never/Ever Trump thread no need to rehash that stuff here. So Clinton or Trump is going to win Nov. 8th. Trump has some momentum and it looks like it […]

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Unless the polls are more wrong than polls have ever been, it seems likely that Crooked Hillary will be Crooked President Hillary. Some of us were speculating on another blog what we might expect from her presidency. Predictions, Ricochistas? I’ll start. In 2018: Republicans will campaign for the House and Senate promising firm, unwavering opposition […]

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The punditry class has spoken. Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee and Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the next President of the United States. Because the polls tell us so. Besides, as I was told just the other day, influential members of the GOP (whose names we all know!) will back Hillary over […]

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When do we start holding people accountable for their predictions? I was in high school when An Inconvenient Truth was all the rage. I was not a fan of Al Gore and I didn’t believe his doom and gloom predictions. In the deep dark recesses of my brain, however, I would occasionally think to myself […]

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Where We Are After South Carolina

 

After taking a weekend to collect my thoughts and give myself a pat on the back about the effects of Nikki Haley’s endorsement of Rubio getting him second place in South Carolina let’s get down to brass tacks: What does it all mean?

Obviously it means a reprieve for Rubio, who successfully battled back from 5th place in New Hampshire, and another win for Donald and a big one; in a split field, he’s got the nomination on lock. Was it a terrible body blow for Cruz to come in third (politics goes by Toretto’s law, so don’t talk to me about ties)? Let’s go candidate-by-candidate again to take a look at how this can play out in the coming weeks before Nevada.

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. The South Carolina Primary: What to Watch For

 

shutterstock_371093699The New Hampshire primary had me eating crow with Kasich’s second place win: I bought the conventional wisdom from the polls that Rubio was going to come in second on his way to working the 3-2-1 strategy that his campaign was pursuing to the nomination.

But the post-New Hampshire spin has largely ignored Katich’s Kasich’s second place victory, since everyone was concentrated on the smashing Trump win and Rubio’s slide. As I expected Rubio’s, rebounded in the polling from his New Hampshire loss and seems to be in a strong third and possible second place in South Carolina.

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. The Iowa Outcome: How the Spin Will Work

 

It’s Iowa Caucus day and all of us fervently hope that with actual votes public persuasion sessions whatever happens in a caucus itself the craziness will subside and we’ll get on with the whole thing.

While we all have a preferred scenario, I see three plausible outcomes for Iowa which will be spun as positively as they can be by the campaigns.

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Political Predictions 2016

 

The hangovers should be wearing off or at least minimized with some comfort food. The 2015 reviews are in and they aren’t good, but that’s okay. God gave us a great big windshield and tiny rearview mirror.

It is time for political predictions and wagering is encouraged.

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Geopolitical Predictions: Place Your Bets

 
The historian is a prophet looking backwards. ― Friedrich von Schlegel, Philosophical Fragments

So where is it all going, folks? Does anyone have an instinct?

When I wrote about why Margaret Thatcher mattered, I concluded “that the political figures who matter have two rare gifts.”

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Contributor Post Created with Sketch. 2014 Triskaidekaphobia

 

Ok, so that’s a mighty big word staring at you in the headline.

Translated, it means “the fear of the number 13″ — an appropriate topic given that we’re 13 days away from the election, Republicans are feeling bullish about their chances, and the one looming question (well, aside from who bothers to vote on Nov. 4) would be what unlucky breaks could befall the GOP.

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