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A Very Good Week for the GOP
This was a very good week for conservatives who are Republicans. If you are an anti-establishment Republican who borrows the “Republican” brand (what some have called “Neo-RINOs”), but either resist getting involved in party politics, choose to use the Republican mantle to vent at the “GOP establishment” when you run out of things to say about Democrats, or refuse to accept majority rule in party politics, then you had a good week too. In fact, you have had a great seven years (See chart). But who’s keeping score? If you are a libertarian, well it was just another week.This followed a rough week with Hillary claiming victory over Benghazi and dancing over the non-candidate, Sanders.
This week provided a clue about a key avenue of attack in 2016. Kentucky’s next governor, Matt Bevin, is a Republican who tied his opponent to Obama, and to his healthcare, environment, energy, and other policies. He upset the forecasters to win handily. Lesson for 2016: Tie Democrats to Obama and Hillary Clinton to Obama’s third term. And don’t forget Obamacare. Also, pray for the President to walk across a bridge of executive orders on his way out the door. He will anyway, and voters by and large resent imperialism.
Ohio handily rejected the marijuana amendment. This was generally a good thing, unless you are a pot-smoking libertarian or a non-pot smoking libertarian. Hillary Clinton has joined the President and some Republicans in calling for relaxing drug laws and sentencing. Most drug offenders are convicted of distributing serious amounts of bad drugs, so lessening sentences is another ruse, this one speaking to the black community, which has a disproportionate share of drug offenders (mostly traffickers) in prisons. The use of medical marijuana deserves further clarification in Ohio, but this aspect is often used as a disguise for gaining open use. There is a strong argument to be made for drug laws, including, “Why do we need another intoxicant?”, from a public safety point of view, not to mention the imposition drug use places on the individual freedoms of those not using.
The Houston anti-discrimination law that would have discriminated against women who prefer to use restrooms with people who share the same biological sex organs was soundly defeated. It served as a confirmation of just how far the Democrat grievance agenda is now being forced to march. It will help Republicans with the war on women when it is revealed that Democrats want men to use women’s rest rooms. That is not an attractive proposition, Bruce, I mean Caitlyn, Jenner. Lesson for 2016: Eventually dividing us into identities pits one identity against another — see illegal immigrants and union workers. See wages and jobs and illegal immigration. See parents of school children and unionized teachers.
Finally that opportunist, government rent-seeking, failed green-car entrepreneur Terry McCauliffe – Friend of Hill – will be a lame duck governor and see his agenda blocked. The GOP held the Virginia Senate. It’s time to polish up the executive order process in Virginia.
On other fronts, Marco Rubio actually landed the most lethal line at the CNBC debates when he laid out the case that Hillary lied: “Last week Hillary Clinton went before a Committee. She admitted, ‘Hey, this attack on Benghazi was caused by Al Qaeda-like elements … and yet the mainstream media is going around saying it was the greatest week of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. It was the week she got exposed as a liar.” He doubled down with Charlie Rose and crushed it. Here is Matthew Continetti’s explanation at the Washington Free Beacon:
But look at what’s happened since Clinton’s “great 10 days.” The more one examines the statements she made before Congress, the more they are revealed to be not entirely true. The polling says the electorate has the same impression of her that it’s had for some time now: She can’t be trusted. Twenty-seven percent in the Journal poll says she is honest. And “Clinton has the lowest rating for honesty” in the Quinnipiac poll, “as American voters say 60-36 percent she is not honest and trustworthy.”
Rubio was also exculpated by none other than … ta-da! … the Washington Post, for the third time, over the false charges he embezzled, stole, or was morally challenged in using a Florida Republican Party credit card. The newspaper headline on its story read, “Here’s why Marco Rubio’s corporate card saga isn’t really a scandal.” It carefully explains how they researched the findings of investigators and concluded that the following statement, made on Good Morning America, was accurate,
People need to understand what they’re talking about. It wasn’t a credit card. It was an American Express charge card secured under my personal credit in conjunction with the [Republican] Party. Bills would be mailed to me at home. Every month I would go through it. If there was a personal expense, I paid it. If it was a Party expense, the Party paid it. Now I recognize in hindsight I would do it different to avoid confusion. But the Republican Party never paid a single personal expense of mine — personal expense. This is unfortunately when this was initially reported in the press, it was made into something bigger than it actually is. I wouldn’t do it the same way again to avoid all these stories, but the Republican Party never paid any of my personal expenses.
Take that Jeb! and Donald Trump!
All the news was not good for Trump or Carson – though does it matter? Good or bad, they do well.
Trump got in some of his usual Gossip Girl innuendo attacks this week, which hit Carson particularly hard but glanced off Rubio. Will America elect a nattering nativist nabob of negativism? Trump wants to know. His strategy of borrowing the free media to get his message out requires more and more outrageous so-called suggestions about his opponents.
Unfortunately, Carson helped Trump. Carson went off the rails several times. His history with knowledge and explanations is not strong, a trait he shares with Trump. Noah Rothman at Commentary listed a few of the Carson gaffs: Biblical scripture explains the ethno-geographic conflict in the Middle East; he did not know the Baltic States had been members of NATO for over ten years; this week said he never heard that America’s Cuban asylum policy is “wet foot, dry foot;” yesterday he claimed Medicare and Medicaid fraud amounted to $500 billion a year; today he claimed the pyramids were built to hold grain; and the Founding Fathers hadnever held elected office. (Oops!)
Get it together, Ben! These statements are all on-record and will make humorous opposition attacks. Too bad. Dr. Carson has had months to get ready. Don’t expect a change in debate format to make him more knowledgeable or less gaffe-prone. Republicans will notice as we get closer to lever-pulling time.
Carson and Trump were not the only ones to hit road bumps this week. Hillary did, too. Thanks to the e-mail releases, Mathew Continetti, at Commentary, was able to detail the toadies and obsequious supplicants who surrounded her — the “circle of jerks” — and upon whom she apparently thrived. This is pretty character-damning stuff. Nothing new. But harmful with the establishment left, who is suspicious of her.
Cruz was steady on the campaign trail this week, gathering cash and polishing large donors. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee woke up to find a dead horse’s head in both of their beds — they did not make the cut for the Fox Business News debate next week. Narrowing. Narrowing. Chris Christie will be sorely missed for his insight into fantasy football. He cannot seem to get out from behind the shadow of reality star and tough guy, Donald Trump. Christie should consider a restart using a reality show format like Jersey Shore. Mike Huckabee, are you still running?
All and all, this was a good week of progress for the GOPe (establishment) and the GOPae (“ae” for anti-establishment, or perhaps”nr” for Neo-Rinos). And libertarians, just grin and bear it: Face it, some of us will never catch up. We are simply incapable of grasping the libertarian way — too deep for those of us who are one-dimensional, sentimental conservatives.
Published in General
Forget all of the candidate score card stuff. I don’t watch much tv, but caught Trump and Carson on O’Reilly. Then O’Reilly started a nuclear war against George Will, called Will a hack and a liar. O’Reilly read Will the riot act and then dismissed Will with a wave of the arm. Unexpected.
Edit: JM, Sorry about the off topic comment. Your post is an excellent review of the political landscape, thanks.
Jetstream,
I walked in and saw the O’Reilly v. Will conflict. Kind of over the top. O’Reilly’s “death of” franchise is coming under question. Will was unyielding.
Don’t know what’s this means.
What I know is O’Reilly and maybe Will, will not have much impact on the Presidential race.
Great stuff, JM. Hope you have the time to do this more often.
JM
I don’t want to start a back and forth about this, just fyi about Marco Rubio’s election problem because of his views on immigration.
JS,
There is a problem until you compare him to the rest. They are all about at parity. Look at the specifics. The 11 million will probably stay with some form of work permit. Their children will probably be treated under the existing law. The only one who is unclear is Cruz. He is silent and just keeps talking about the law, but provides no detail.
No matter how you see this – and Rubio is but one of 4-5 possible winners now – the point is this, the GOP had a pretty good week.
A great run down, JM! And I appreciated the “dead horse” line! A little humor with morning coffee is always good! Also, as an aside, the polls are proving unreliable on both sides of the Atlantic-the Bevins race in Kentucky- Bevins won a huge victory (wasn’t it a 5 point spread?) but was predicted to lose- and the elections in UK where the Tories were expected to be forced into another coalition government but won an outright majority.
I guess if you’re only goal is to cheer the red flag, it was a “good week” for the GOP.
Now the bad news:
So, the Republican Party had a good week. Those of us who believe in limited Government and fiscal responsibility, not so much.
JM, your graphic (thanks for including) is some good news. I think JoE has mentioned these statistics and it is frustrating that more POTUS candidates aren’t talking about the state level accomplishments.
Gov. Christie was (maybe still is) chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association in 2014 when some of these victories were occurring, but even he doesn’t seem to brag about them much.
Do you think there is a divide between state republicans and federal?
V the K,
Cheer up! Did things get that much worse? Is our decline slowed just a bit? Armageddon delayed a day or two? Will I not be treated to your posts and humor a few days longer until le deluge? That last part brings a smile to me.
Also that score card at the top of offices won by the GOPe’s includes some GOPae’s and GOPnr’s. That should cheer us. It portends new blood. Give me blood!
And keep the faith!
Merina,
Great observation about the polls. It used to be they undercounted the Democrats and Labor.
There is however some very bad news burried in this . . . This was an off, off year election. GOP voters are more reliable voters and that shows up in the off year elections. We all need to focus on this important distinction. The polls underestimated Obama’s margin of victory or even victory in 2012 because it underestimated the surge in Dem voters in Presidential years and the Obama effect.
Point: The GOP is at a disadvantage with the social media, surge, and data bank voters who the Dems can turn out.
We have some good candidates, the issues are skewed our way, we have Ryan who presents a different, fresh face, but our core voters are roughly 35%. The Dems start with 40 to 45%. The independents tend to lean in favor of us, 55-65%. So we need bad weather, a good news cycle, economic sluggishness, a great candidate, wonderful down ticket candidates, and some push to clear the Presidential hurdle. It really is that hard.
No, the divide is between the Donor Class, who get everything from the Republican Party, and the more conservative base, who get nothing from the party but empty promises and naked contempt.
V the K,
Yes we are very flawed. Russell Kirk wrote about de Toqueville’s concern that the middle class would become preoccupied with materialism. He espoused the need to have classes in society, but was most concerned that avarice might contaminate the democracy by undermining the morals of the middle class. Instead, we have evolved into a society where we distrust the motivations of the rich, the best educated. http://www.kirkcenter.org/images/uploads/kirkconservativesummary.pdf
Great.
Let’s hope that:
Do you see this same dynamic at work at the state level
Thanks for the rundown JM. I have been enjoying your posts especially the perspective on the Obama foreign policy.
I would contend that Ryan is not a new face since he was on the national ticket. However, he presented in a new way with a different control of his perception and that of the party.For Ryan it’s the Grand Opportunity Party, and Grow Overall Prosperity.
It is heartening to see Rubio continue to highlight Clinton’s deceptions. I cannot wait for the campaign ad that show a little girl in colonial clothes successfully chopping down a cherry tree. A horsebacked rider approaches and asks “Hillary, what happened to the cherry tree?” She says “I cannot tell a lie; I did not fell the tree.” “But, you are holding an ax?” And with a Clinton voice over, “What difference at this point does it make?” as the girl skips carefree into the background.
nothing about 2015 results gives any reason to think states can be flipped in 2016
Yes! Better a “nattering nativist nabob of negativism” than a member of the “bien pensant wankerati,” that’s for sure!
I do not expect most Trump supporters to rally behind just any Republican candidate. Not all Tea Party members are Republicans, and a considerable number of Trump supporters are politically unaffiliated. Some might vote for e.g. Rubio, others might not because of immigration. Politically indifferent Trumpers might just go back to doing what they usually do, not vote. (Hope CNBC doesn’t run a The Apprentice marathon on Election Day.)
It could be even more difficult for dug-in “wankerati” in the media to disown their efforts to sabotage the Trump candidacy at every turn and tout whichever opponent is trending up. If he does roll off primary wins in Florida and Ohio, you’ll hear about his campaign “maturing” or “getting more serious” perhaps. If he actually wins the nomination, the conservative press pack will use words cautiously, citing journalistic objectivity … which they should have done from the start.
As for this week, the Virginia results are certainly encouraging. But maybe it’s not good for the Republicans when Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee are arbitrarily thinned from the debate herd. Christie is a lively media presence, and a more robust representative for moderates than Bush the “stiff”, or Kasich uncaged. Christie is also an important antidote when Rand Paul gets going on issues like crime or homeland security.
I’m no Huckabee fan politically, but he’s a deft on-air talent, and good-natured enough to help the tone of the debates. He’s not yet irrelevant electorally, because if Carter should continue to fumble answers on Medicare, he could lose credibility fast and Huckabee would be the most likely beneficiary.
Averaging polls (which differ greatly in methodology and have individual margins of errors greater than the cut-off threshold) doesn’t serve the party well when the outcome is a less enjoyable debate. It’s not just about finding a nominee, it’s also about showing the diversity of the Party to the general public. Let the voters do the winnowing.
Casey Way,
Ryan: Right. Not a new face, but a fresh change. Even when I disagree with him, he is so earnest, hardworking and committed, I want to follow.
What a good man – and his personal life confirms it. He is everything a modern conservative man should be, in a time when bravado and garishness seem to rule. Russell Kirk and Irving Babbitt would recognize him.
Rubio is very effecctive in disarming and then using the assailants weapon against him. We have not seen this in a Republican in quite a while. He is not tit-for-tat, he is rat-a-tat-tat. You bring a knife, he brings a Tomahawk missile. I think this comes from his quick, on the streets exposure.
You are too, too creative – that is a beautiful concept for a political advertisement.
Aside: My struggle with conservative foreign policy in the Post-Post-Cold War is not done. With this lull in Republican leadership in the White House and time to reflect on the current administration’s pull backs, it is useful to consider what a conservative foreign policy might look like if we began anew. We should not be constained. The Cold War is over. We should be open to new things. Russell Kirk taught us to embrace change that is good, but not presume that all change is – most is not. W.F Buckley as much as anyone created the idea of modern American Conservativism. It shares some values with libertarians and is different on the idea of moral or righteous requirements that all individuals must value in a civil society. Samuel Huntington outlined further the ideals of conservative foreign policy in both the Cold War and in the clash of civilizations. My conclusions are leading me to question a great deal about modern conservative and neo-conservative foreign policy. I am becoming a Kissinger-ist – the only thing that matters is the balance of power. And, Jeanne Kirkpatrick made it clear that sentimentalism, morality and ideology are generally destabilizing forces.
Yes – I agree. Also, the job is much tougher in a Presidential year as I present in some other comments above.
Jim, Some nice additional observations. And, you are always a gentlemen, … with a funny sense of humor. . .
Jim I do wonder if Trump can continue to do well or better by using the media disapprobation to rocket his campaign? It is almost like we are watching the Batchelorette or America Has Talent and we are pulling for the performer who Simon Cowell has just roasted. Many are naturally drawn to underdogs and the bad boys – those who tell it like it is. Brit Hume, no anti-establishment crank, has commented about how he cannot stop watching Trump. Me too!
I don’t care if Ryan is a “good man and his personal life confirms it”. I’m fine with someone who combines being serious about conservative government and unhesitatingly wily in their tactics to accomplish their goals even if they are a rogue. I am not looking for a personal role model.
While there are things I like about both Ryan and Rubio to date they appear to have a disturbing level of naivete when negotiating with Democrats. I hope they have learned some lessons.
Thank goodness for all these gains. There’s no doubt that at the Federal level without these gains sequestration would have been eliminated, Ex-Im Bank reauthorized and we would have been unable to defund all those programs we find so offensive.
To their credit, some Republicans at the state level have achieved what would be impossible at the national level; the right-to-work legislation in Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin for example. Although, in each case, it was against the objection of the moderate GOP establishment which was afraid that the radical notion that people should have the freedom to decided not to join a union was so radical and dangerous that voters would turn them out of office.
Couple that with Republican governors like John Kasich, Jan Brewer, and Chris Christie signing onto Obamacare Medicaid expansion and one could make the case that Republicans at the state level are only marginally better than the ones in Washington.
It would probably help to remember Scott Brown, who when elected was the deciding vote that stopped cloture in the Senate. He was a Republican. He voted for many things that were not “small government” and he went along with Romneycare when he was in the Massachusetts legislature. Coincidentally, like Ryan, he is a good example of what a conservative man should be. Modest. Reasonable. Faithful.
To succeed, one might have to work with or tolerate those one disagrees with.
This applies to every right-to-work legislative initiative. Yes, some Republicans did not support or vote for it. But, some “establishment” Republicans did. And it would not have passed on Tea Party, anti-establishment, Conservative or Chamber of Commerce Republican support alone. So if one objects to those Republicans who did not support everything one holds dear, one is courting failure. Some prefer this.
In the meantime if you want to make a difference don’t raise you voice, improve your argument.
And recall, the Republican Party got here first, not the Tea Party, not the modern Conservative Movement, not the Chamber of Commerce, not the Heritage Foundation, …. and not even us. So if we call out every Republican with whom we disagree as RINO’s, then what does that make us when we disagree with them? Neo-RINO’s?
If one claims to be a Republican – one has already compromised oneself. Its called democracy. If you haven’t, you are standing on the side lines observing.
This was an excellent post, but insufficiently jubilant. The legislative electoral success in Virginia in the face of massive outside spending has been discussed elsewhere, and the ease of the Mississippi victory is easy to overlook, but the downticket races in Kentucky included some really good news, too. Rand Paul’s most plausible opponents will likely not run against him, either because they won (Beshear will likely stay on as AG) or because they lost (Edelen spent millions on an auditor’s race and lost, which doesn’t inspire hope in donors and activists).