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Europe, the Refugee Crisis, and Conservatives
I noticed yesterday on the Member Feed that Ricochet member F-18 was wondering why we hadn’t been discussing the refugee crisis on Ricochet. In fact, we have — quite a bit — but he’s right that some of the most interesting discussions have been coming up in the comment threads, and thus aren’t so easy to find.
I’m in Europe now, and was living in Turkey as the Syrian war began and the refugees began streaming across the border. So I thought I’d open this thread to anyone who wants to ask questions about what exactly happened and what’s happening now in Europe.
Before that, though, I thought I’d put up links to some of the posts I wrote here on Ricochet as the crisis began. It would take you a few hours to read them all and watch all of the video interviews, but if you have them to spare, you might find them useful: You can see from them how absolutely clear it was, even in 2011, that a disaster of this scale was inevitable.
So when I read now that thanks to a single photo of a drowned Syrian toddler the world has realized it has a very big problem on its hands, I think you’ll understand why I feel … well, I don’t know what I feel. And I guess what I feel isn’t really the point.
July 10, 2011: Mike and Bob From Hama
… I suppose the place to start is at the end. I know the look he gave me when I left. I see it a lot: “You’re a journalist. Please, make the world understand what’s happening to us. If they understood, they wouldn’t let it happen.”
July 11, 2011: “Hama Doesn’t Forget or Forgive“
… He was groping for any kind of hope, but realistically hopeless. “The whole world wants Assad to stay. Everyone is too afraid of what will happen if he falls.” He was well aware that this fear wasn’t baseless. Overwhelmingly, he thought, the most likely outcome of this was civil war. “There is a huge hatred for the Alawites.”
He stressed that anyone who thought compromise or reform possible at this point was delusional. “They don’t understand the Syrian mentality. Hama doesn’t forget or forgive.”
Bob had joined us by this point. I asked, again, why they were talking to the media. “Governments won’t listen,” Mike said. “But the message has to get out to people. People can make their governments put pressure on Assad.”
I told him that I thought the likelihood of this was close to zero, and I explained why. Bob tried to insist I was wrong.
Mike interrupted him and said, “No, she’s right. I agree with her. She’s right.
“Rationally, there’s no hope.”
June 18, 2011: When Syria Explodes
… It’s not a secret that Syria is imploding. But the key thing to grasp is that it won’t stop there: There is a real possibility that this regime will take its neighbors down with it. I’m not sure that the West — which from what I can tell is now completely preoccupied with itself and its economic problems — is sufficiently grasping this. …
February 2, 2012: The Evil Regime: A Report From Syria
… Having been told that the videos of carnage coming out of Syria were doctored or manufactured to exaggerate the scale of the catastrophe there, he decided he had an obligation to see for himself. He disguised himself as a naive Turkish restauranteur and went to Syria undercover. He was there for two weeks before being arrested and deported. He’s in Istanbul now, and I saw him last night. Physically he’s fine, but …
February 3, 2012: What Ilhan Tanır Saw in Syria, Part I
… “Conditions are far worse than I expected. … They come house by house and they arrest every single person … it’s far worse than anything you can imagine. … the civil war has not arrived yet, but it looks like maybe a few weeks … I definitely think Assad forces must be distracted, must be distracted, they’re using all their resources on the people … but they’re doing this because there’s nothing else they worry about right now … Yes, Assad might play whatever he’s got — Kurds, PKK, it’s a risk … Everyone is waiting, Assad does what he does best … “
February 3, 2012: What Ilhan Tanır Saw in Syria, Part II
“I had no idea what they were going to do to me … they wouldn’t let me call my embassy, no way. … I thought, ‘Okay, this is not going well.’ … They took me downstairs, which is a terrible, terrible place … smells, I cannot describe how disgusting it was … people are coming in chained, like ten, five, ten people … they were really angry at me, I can see … they only hit me in the chaos, and it wasn’t too bad, compared to other people … I have no idea who did it, they did it from my back … it could have been much worse, it was chaos.” …
February 4, 2012: Let Me Save You Time on Syria
Let me put this to you simply. Assad is a monster. He is evil beyond comprehension. No one is going to stop him until he and everyone around him is dead. But you’re out of your minds if you convince yourself the FSA is comprised of potentially friendly, liberal democrats. There’s not a liberal democrat between here and the Horn of Africa, just trust me on this; they don’t even know what those words mean, they just know that you have to say them if you want to have any hope of being saved by those weird but freakishly powerful Americans for whom the words “liberal democrats” are the magic elixer. There will be no friendly, moderate, secular regime in Syria, ever, and the first thing the FSA will do if anyone helps them is slaughter Alawites and Christians. Everyone knows it, and at this point, who could possibly be surprised and who could blame them. They hate the world in this descending order, with allowances for overlap: Shia, Jews, Christians, Iran, America, Israel, Russia, Turkey. They’ll probably hate each other, too, soon enough.
The only options here are unbearably awful and unspeakably awful. There’s no happy outcome. The United States remains the only country in the world with anything like the military power to change this situation in a meaningful way, and nothing but military power will affect it, and the US isn’t going to use it. Our economy is in the tank, we’re tied down around the world, we’re hamstrung by Russia and Iran. We’re done with this region; we’re not even interested.
We will be blamed for not intervening, just as we were blamed for intervening in Iran and Iraq, and everyone will forget that both intervening and not intervening are moral choices; and the US was never presented — ever — with a choice between supporting good and supporting evil in this part of the world, just between supporting evil and supporting slightly-less-evil. In a choice between supporting evil and supporting slightly less-evil, slightly-less-evil equals good. That’s the real world.
… So, yeah, they’re Islamists, not the shy flower of the Scottish Enlightenment, but they seem to have some interest in democracy, and they talk about the Turkish model, which I’m sure they don’t understand, but which, if it means to them, “Islamic and democratic,” is probably a good thing. Maybe if you could get enough UN peacekeepers in there fast enough after Assad falls, you could prevent some of the slaughter of the minorities that would otherwise ensue. Maybe you could get a functional state up-and-running fast enough that Syria doesn’t become the Somalia of the Levant, maybe not.
The risk right now to Syria’s neighbors, if it tries to help, is extreme: Assad holds the PKK card, it has huge stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. The regime is going bankrupt, at the very least there will be floods of refuges if this continues, Turkey certainly can’t absorb them. The Russians would be perfectly happy for every man, woman and child in Syria to be tortured and killed so long as nothing gets between it and its warm water base at Tartus. The French and the British will make very stern noises, but what are they going to do. UN? Useless. Arab League? Useless. GCC? Useless.
Meanwhile, those kids are dying. I’ve met some of them, Ilhan has met many more, and they’re kids who have been pushed into radicalism because they’re going to be killed tomorrow, so you better well hope there’s a better life on the other side. It’s that simple, really. …
And so here we are, on September 23, 2015. Please feel free to ask me any question you have about the refugee crisis — how it began, how Europe is reacting to it, what conservatives should think about it, and what might happen next.
Sadly, I know a lot about it.
And I know that for reasons I’ll never understand — as long as I’m alive — people are surprised by it.
Published in Foreign Policy, General
That wasn’t him — he tried as hard as he could to get the motion authorized. It was parliament.
Not to worry, though, soon he’ll be the absolute dictator and he won’t have to worry about that pesky parliament.
Michael Totten:
“Russia has what is sometimes referred to as its only Mediterranean naval base in Syria’s medium-sized city of Tartus, but it’s not much more than a gas station and repair shop. Russia’s big warships won’t even fit there. It’s not particularly important. What matters far more to Russia is its influence in the world, which is still drastically down from the great and terrible days of the Soviet Union.”
True for the whole map from the mediterranean to Pakistan. But if Syria only, could be done with 50,000 international peacekeepers and 3 to 5 years.
After seeing some of the fraud regarding what is happening I am suspicious of those that do the reporting, including Claire. I don’t want anymore muslims coming to the United States, none. Staging photographs, misrepresenting who these refugees are and any other shenanigans that haven’t come to light are not tactics to have a reasonable conversation but attempts to manipulate.
I guess causing 200,000 Syrian deaths and millions of refugees is one way to show that you have influence.
We could also offer them a nuclear umbrella guarantee against Iran, in addition to the other pressure we can bring to bear.
I would think that through. Choosing between SA and Iran is not a whole lot different than choosing between Assad and FSA, maybe? Though we do want to prevent SA and Egypt, etc. procuring their own nukes – so that would already have precipitated said promise from the US probably.
Claire,
We are contemplating donating money to Catholic Relief Services to help these people. They say they provide direct food, toiletries etc to the refugees in Turkey, Bulgaria and other landing spots for these refugees. They say that many of the people are professional class Syrians who wish to return to Syria when/if it improves.
My concern is that by subsidizing their life in Europe, we make Europe worse and Syria worse. Europe becomes worse because we enable Europe to survive by exploiting immigrant labor and fertility rather than being forced to become adults and work for their own future. Syria becomes worse because most of their human capital (entrepreneurs, professionals, physicians) leaves and no one is left to fight for their country.
Also, I wonder if we are dangling a carrot on the Northern coast of the Mediterranean while we are hoping no one risks their life by crossing the Sea to reach the very carrot we have dangled.
We gave a lot of money to the Red Cross after Katrina only to learn that it was wasted. Likewise, CRS after the Sudan lost boys episode. We feel compelled to help but this feels like a movie we have seen.
It sounds like you believe they will leave Syria regardless of whether there is a welfare check or charity on the other side of the border, right? Am I off-base with my concern that subsidizing the migration is actually making the situation worse in the long-term?
My family is from Ukraine. They lived in Bucovina in Romania. They were ceded to the USSR by the Ribbentrop treaty. Dad was accused of being a “Wrecker” ( told his boss the specs for a motor violated engineering principles and some laws of physics). But the Germans invaded before he got arrested. They spent most of the war avoiding being “liberated” by the Red Army, ended up just inside the US zone (liberated by the Rainbow Division) near Salzberg. Spent the next 5 years in a DP camp, came to the US in 1950.
My dad was born in the Austro Hungarian Empire, grew up under a Romanian King, went to college under Romanian Fascists, was annexed to the USSR, married in the Third Reich, was under the Military Occupation in Austria, and finally was a citizen of the United States.
What do y’all make of the EU vote to mandate distribution of migrants throughout member states?
The president of Slovakia has said he won’t accept it, and other states are bucking as well. If member states refuse to abide by such determinations, what might be the consequences?
What’s not to love?
Have to get to work, but want to read in full including comments – I’ll leave something I saw in the news:
http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2015/september-web-only/on-refugee-crisis-frontline-croatias-christians.html?start=1
I found it interesting that the Christians are running to the borders to help the refugees – the churches, groups not waiting for government – after all the persecution of Christians in the Middle East – what an example. One person in the article said God is giving us an opportunity – bringing Muslims to our doorstep – So much of Europe is now secular – west more than east – large beautiful cathedrals and stone country churches sit empty or barely filled – wouldn’t it be something if they were filled with Muslims hearing the gospel for the first time? I don’t think the dictators in the Middle East planned on that –
One more thing – Claire – that dream you had about not wanting to get on the bus with the other journalists – maybe get on the bus, and get some first hand info from the French border, and pictures? This is a moment in history that needs to be recorded from different perspectives – you are a gifted writer, and a woman – your version of these events would be really interesting. I started a book I found in a library sale – it’s called Beneath Another Sun by Ernst Lothar published in 1943, about a family in Austria who is changed forever because the face of Europe changed forever, including their beloved Austria. The author says it is based on true facts and documents.
You might even want to pair up with a photographer and self-publish – everyone on Ricochet would buy at least one copy!
Are you sure?
“Migrants are disguising themselves as Syrians to enter Europe”
There are well-dressed Iranians speaking Farsi who insist they are members of the persecuted Yazidis of Iraq. There are Indians who don’t speak Arabic but say they are from Damascus. There are Pakistanis, Albanians, Egyptians, Kosovars, Somalis and Tunisians from countries with plenty of poverty and violence, but no war.
It should come as no surprise that many migrants seem to be pretending they are someone else. The prize, after all, is the possibility of benefits, residency and work in Europe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/migrants-are-disguising-themselves-as-syrians-to-gain-entry-to-europe/2015/09/22/827c6026-5bd8-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html
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This is so true.
I disagree with the following statements in Claire’s OP:
There is Israel.
I don’t think that Claire meant to disregard Israel — rather, I think she implicitly meant the “non-Israeli Middle East” when she wrote “between here and the Horn of Africa” and “this part of the world.”
So the first lesson to draw is that the Israelis are, unambiguously, the only good guys in the entire region. Never, ever forget that. Support them to the utmost. Realize that everyone who fails to understand this is part of the problem. Understand that many in the West who oppose Israel are not good guys themselves, but rather want to tear down — dare I say “fundamentally transform” — the West.
The second lesson to draw is that, outside of Israel, there is no prospect of the good guys winning anywhere in the Middle East (even if we somehow found a couple of them). Expect a clash of civilizations between the West and the Muslim Middle East for the foreseeable future. Don’t get sentimental. Engage in realpolitik to stabilize the region and secure the flow of oil.
[Cont’d]
[Cont’d]
The third lesson is to harden your heart regarding the refugees. They are not good guys either. Given a chance, if their group won, they would become tyrants and oppressors themselves. Sorry, but these are the facts. We should not weaken the West by allowing these refugees in.
It is unprecedented for EU ministers to make a decision such as this by majority vote as opposed to unanimous consensus. I would be surprised if this did not produce some type of crisis, the idea of a member such as Hungry passively accepting this decision seems wildly improbable.
It seems as though there is a lot of conflicting information about who the refugees are.
Solid information would go a long way to toward finding good solutions.
What people do not understand is that the refugees themselves are a weapon and are being used that way.
Once these refugees end up in other countries they will have the ability to protest and change the political response to the problem back in their home country they left. This in itself is a weapon.
I had the misfortune of walking through 2 Anti Israel rallies when in Europe last year. Heavily populated by Muslims with vicious anti Israel and frankly anti semitic propaganda, once in Vienna, and once in Berlin within 100 yards of the Holocaust Memorial.
What of the American position that “Assad must go”? This seems a naive hangover from Hope & Change meets the Arab Spring. After Libya and Iraq, is not the important question, “then what?”. Armed revolutions provoke armed responses, and even conceding that Assad’s response is brutal, I see no hope of his replacement being any more acceptable, rather, I assume the replacement to be even worse.
Whatever else, say “no” to Muslim resettlement in the US.
Are you sure about that? A lot of people have noticed that young men seem to constitute a solid majority of the migrants. Economic migration seems to account for the invasion as much or more than seeking refuge from the conflict.
I have a plan. The Christian world takes in the Christian refugees, and the Muslim world takes in the Muslim refugees.
Alas, since from what I’ve read most (or perhaps all) of the Christian (and other minorities) have already been murdered by the Muslims now battling against Assad and/or for ISIL/ISIS/I-don’t-care.
Circa 2006, I had an Chaldean-American tell about how members of his family still in Iraq had been ethnically cleansed out of their homes by the Muslims we had rescued from the Hussein regime, with the US Army and US government taking no notice or interest. Later I read that many Iraqi Christians had fled to Syria, presumably to be murdered later by the anti-Assad rebels.
Hence, my sympathy for the Muslims of the area is quite lacking. It seems to me that they should solve their own problems, without expecting the civilized part of the world to attempt to solve them yet again- only this time after they have completed the extermination of any non-Muslim they can reach to kill.
The reality of events is summed up by the Saudi offer to build mosques in Germany, but not to accept any refugees.
No thanks.
Those are your trousers Vlad is running up the flagpole, Barry, and there’s nothing you can do about it. But he’s still on the wrong side of history – at least you can console yourself with that.
Just reading through some of the stories that you wrote Claire, back in 2011-2012 pretty much sums it up. Beyond sad, just terrifying for the people who love their homeland, to think that not only is a monster named Assad creating such havoc, but the weapons you speak of are there for the taking, be it ISIS or Assad to use as a last resort. Since the international community cannot seem to solve this, and Russia has some sort of (no good) plan, then each person should do what their conscience moves them to do.
People are raising money – Glenn Beck has already raised millions – someone mentioned Catholic Relief Services, another good source. It is interesting that Saudi Arabia with their wealth will not take anyone – Europe is bearing the brunt of this crisis, but it will be here before long. We have our own immigrant situation from South America, but we still have freedom.
It is hard to ignore the passage in the Bible, Isaiah Chapter 17 that says Damascus will become a heap of ruins “and the remnant of Syria will be like the glory of the children of Israel” – what we’re witnessing and I agree with Claire, save as many people as we can, women and children – like the Holocaust, the need is the same, but we cannot say we didn’t know this time. Like the loaves of fish that multiplied, I think God will bless those that help the suffering.
Claire- inundating Europe with a religious culture that will and does not assimilate — I highly recommend the following ZDF (yes, ZDF!, which is like America’s PBS) documentary, with English subtitles, about the ills of Islamic immigration to Germany — will, at the very least, economically-politically diminish Europe’s ability to serve as a refuge in the future for limited amounts of immigrants truly in dire need. Your recent statement that Europe should go ahead and accept 60 million — yes, 60 million — refugees was astonishing.
I just returned from spending four months in both the Czech Republic and Bavaria. Quite a study in contrasts. While there is a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding right now in Munich, I can tell you the Czechs and other former Eastern Bloc countries are not going to stand for this. Czechs in fact are polling 81% strongly opposed to letting in any Islamic immigrants.
Claire, I love your writing — I’m a bona fide Berlinski fan (having moreover gone to the mat defending your father, one of my heroes, from his nasty defamers) — but when it comes to Islam and matters of immigration, I’m sorry, but you completely lose me.