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Rubio: Slow & Steady Wins the Race?
I’ll admit I’ve always been partial to Marco Rubio. He, Scott Walker, and Rick Perry were my top considerations. But with the latter out of the race, it seems to me that Rubio is the presumptive GOP candidate.
Craziness, you say? Let’s look at my line of thinking …
Trump is an aberration and possibly a Democratic stalking horse. I don’t expect him to gain much support as other candidates drop out. Speaking of which, all-around nice guy Ben Carson seems to be starting to implode. I’m sure Jeb Bush won’t exit anytime soon, but he seems to have peaked despite his $100 million. That leaves Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Rubio.
Despite having voted for Ted as a Senator, I don’t see him garnering the support to put him over the top. I am certainly not discounting Carly; I like what I see, but we saw a lot of these surges in 2012. I’ll wait to see if she has serious staying power, especially because the MSM has turned on her now that they realize she could take away Hillary’s coveted prize.
That leaves Marco. Can slow and steady win the race?
He has shown serious chops in both GOP debates, and people are noticing.
His favorability rating has grown with time.
He has consistently been one of the top second choices of GOP voters.
He is youthful, handsome, and he can speak naturally and directly to a voting block of growing importance that the GOP must win over in order to have a chance at solid victory.
And, as previously mentioned, he has serious policy chops, especially in the foreign policy arena.
Yes, he has some pitfalls. He’s only a one-term Senator. (What could go wrong?) He alienated a lot of conservatives with his initial immigration efforts — which I think he would admit was a mistake. But he offers steady, serious, and clean-cut.
Meanwhile, despite being celebrated as the leading candidate, Donald Trump isn’t the choice of 70-80 percent of GOP voters. Trump is a wild card, with more risk than possible reward. I think Peak Trump is ~30 percent and seems to be receding already. And as other candidates follow the path of Walker and Perry, more and more of those 70 percent of GOP voters will seek refuge from the Trump and MSM co-dependent circus. Bush, Cruz, and Carson have their dedicated constituencies, but have limited upside because they have major flaws that cause people outside those constituencies to feel uncomfortable with them.
Both Rubio and Fiorina offer the GOP opportunities they haven’t had … well, ever. Both could attract votes from critical voting blocks. But in the end, I think Rubio will offer voters something they haven’t felt in a long time. Comfort. Comfort in his smarts, comfort in his policy stances (mostly), comfort in his ease on the stump, and yes, comfort in his looks and youth. Comfort. Not a wild card.
That’s why I think in the end, Rubio will secure the nomination. (And Ricochet member KarmaKaiser offers an even more more specific version of this prediction.)
Slow and steady wins the race.
Published in Elections, General
Yes, I think Rubio would admit his initial immigration efforts were a mistake, because they did not pass and become law. But not in the sense he had changed his views. He hasn’t.
Whenever he has the opportunity to sign off on an immigration amnesty, whether he is in the Senate it the White House, he will do so.
Rubio’s history and position on immigration makes him a non starter for me. Just don’t trust him on what I feel is the critical issue.
Amen, brother. You have to beware of attractively ethnic candidates with thin resumes.
I have to confess that Sen. Rubio strikes me as the Republican Barack Obama.
– One-term senator with limited experience
– Very compelling personal narrative, which he uses to great advantage.
– Young, attractive, with nice family
– Finished law degree, which he obtained, then went quickly into ‘public service’ (little private sector life – I like a candidate who lived a life before politics)
– People are projecting into to him what they wish to see
Yet, how has he really ‘operated’ in action? He ran for the Senate on a ‘tea party’ platform and promised to oppose amnesty. Then, just a few month into his term, huddled with McCain and Schummer on the Gang of 8 legislation (he didn’t just vote for something – he helped author it!). And then, when people were upset with the ‘gang of 8’, he when on the trail to sell it (doubled down, as they say). Now, when his support of this bill is hurting his campaign, he changes his tune. Is this his McCain “build the dang fence” moment? will he reverse again once he gets what he want? Who knows, because he’s proven he’ll say one thing and do another. And then come out and lecture us if we have a problem.
I think we need to stop looking at the surface, and be more analytical about Rubio.
If the choice comes down to Bush/Rubio/Kasich versus Trump, gird your loins for President Hillary Clinton.
I fall solidly in the anti-Trump side, and now my top two candidates, Perry and Walker, are no longer in the race. Of the assumed “GOPe” picks, Rubio is the only choice for me.
Why? Because he’ll beat Hillary like a rented mule in the general election. He’s stronger on policy, he has all the right visuals (the Democrats are scared of a young vibrant Spanish-speaking GOP candidate), and he has demonstrated stronger conservative instincts than the other “GOPe” candidates.
The question we, the GOP base, need to ask ourselves is whether Rubio’s previous flirtation with Gang of Eight is such the indictment that we will allow Clinton to win next November.
Are you suggest we should get over the cult of personality and look at policy/records and then find out he isn’t conservative?
I can’t get over either, but you are correct to include Kasich. I think he will be around for a while.
I think flirtation is too light a word. That is like saying Shakespeare flirted with literature. Rubio was one of, if not the, key figures in its authorship.
I wish Rubio would get more traction – my gut is going with him – he would appeal to young and old, a variety of ethnic backgrounds, he speaks naturally like he’s thinking instead of reciting memorized words which I felt Cruz did in last debate. Cruz is a good guy, and would be great in the next administration. So many average (and smart) people are still liking Trump and that’s just the way it is right now – unless he really trips up, he will hold his own as things play out. I think Rubio would appeal if people knew more about him and heard him frequently. He’s quiet and respectful, so that persona against a loud person like Trump is a challenge right now.
I didn’t like his Gang of 8 (or whatever) plan either. But I do like the way he talks about it now. He frankly regrets it. He’s learned from the embarrassing experience that a comprehensive bill isn’t the way to go.
I believe him. I also think his background as the son of Cuban immigrants will make him much more forceful and credible on the issue. It’s visceral for him. I mean, wanting sound immigration policies and wanting to make sure America remains the place that attracts so many immigrants, i.e. a place of freedom and opportunity, not statism.
This is what I expressed concern about above. My own excellent Mother used to say, “don’t listen to what people say, watch what they do.” This is a very conveniently timed turnaround. He said one thing in an election, then did the opposite in office. Now that he’s running again, he’s back to saying the first thing. Of course I’m skeptical.
I said on an earlier thread, they feel free to make promises and then break them, and push us to the curb because they know they’ll get away with it. In the end, we’ll go ahead and vote for them as the ‘lesser evil’. I see this with candidates over and over (think about 2010 and 2012!) They just have to get on on board to vote for them in the election , then they disregard us.
I not generally a single-issue voter, but unfortunately, I think one more round of amnesty will do this country in. I believe Rubio will bring us that amnesty.
When he publishes an actual policy position with a REAL FENCE and visa controls and enforcement of work regulations and no amnesty or pathway to citizenship till we sort this mess out, and swears on the life of his wife and kids to implement and enforce it, get back to me. Until then, I’ve been burned too many times by convenient conversions.
I generally like Rubio, but the immigration topic worries me. He’s making many of the right noises now, and there’s a bit of the zeal of a convert in his voice. I rejoice at converts: Reagan signed an pro-abortion in California, then became a committed and effective pro-life political voice. Heck, I used to be a Leninist.
Then I remember that Rubio’s a politician and an eloquent one at that. A pol’s core competence is the ability to sense, then tell you what you want to hear.
No. Amnesty.
Jeb! will be the Republican nominee and get trounced by Hillary in a low turn out election.
(h/t Ace of Spades HQ blogger Drew McCoy – @DrewMTips)
Costa Rica? New Zealand?
Uruguay.
I have a fantasy that we’ll move to Cuba and liberate it! It has the added charm of seriously irritating the left, who’ll complain that we ‘ruined’ it.
I can’t get past either one.
Republican Obama, that’s Rubio.
And that’s why I can’t stand him.
I don’t believe him. I think his quick betrayal of the people who voted for him to not only support but help write the Gang of 8 bill indicates that he has no interest in any sort of a secure border, period.
If elected, I expect he’ll be quite happy to work once again with Chuck Schumer to get yet another incarnation of the 1000-plus page bills that secures the border not at all, but will bring in an endless stream of foreigners thrilled to work for low low wages and of course sweet sweet welfare benefits. Thumbs down.
Worse, I see no reason to assume he’ll be trustworthy on anything else he says, either. He’s already shown his true colors with the Gang of 8 fiasco.
Count me as another person who won’t be voting for him.
So if Rubio can do for the Right what Obama’s done for the Left, you’re good with it?
OK. Let me just step in as one person who does not believe immigration is the only issue on the table this election.
Yes, it’s important. I know all those reasons.
But you know what? All those things you’re afraid immigration will cause won’t happen overnight. We have a little time. We have a congress that can still be influenced in the other way. We still have Jeff Sessions in the Senate.
But this is the last chance to repeal Obamacare. It simply is. And this is, perhaps, the last stand for the basic principle of religious liberty in the United States of America — I do not think I put that too starkly. And then the Iranians could simply kill us all anyway. We are talking about life and death.
Rubio takes all those things seriously. The Gang of Eight and the thin resume make me nervous, but don’t blame me. I supported the less eloquent candidate with no Gang of Eight and a hard-won conservative resume, and the party didn’t go for that.
So in the end, I lean towards taking that risk with Rubio. And if you want to convince me otherwise, you can’t do so on immigration alone, and you have to have an alternative. And not one who thinks socialized medicine works just fine.
The Electability ? for the Republican primary is not the candidate who is the most moderate will win the general (see 1996 or 2008) but who can frame conservative arguments tailored to the general population with a smile. That is Rubio.
I hope you are not a betting man.
Ask Obama’s voters if they think they’re better off.
Oh, boy. Everybody knows that McCartney was the real talent. :)
Leftism has been advanced immeasurably by Obama. I think most Leftists would take the economic hit in exchange for his legitimizing their ideals in the minds of many people. Could Bernie Sanders have gained traction in any party as an avowed socialist prior to Obama? Not in their fondest dreams. If Rubio can demonize Leftism as it deserves, and he has the personal story to do just that, I’ll be happy to vote to support him.
Remember though, Lennon thought a lot of Reagan. He was getting sensible there at the end, at least that’s my sunny read on it.
No. Obama is a doofus. Rubio would be another. Too inexperienced to be a good president.
I think people are giving incomplete appraisals of both Barack and Marco. Marco started out in the Florida House of Representatives 2000. In 2002 he became the speaker (pretty fast rise) and arguably led a conservative record on every issue, during his whole tenure (winning every election by roughly 66% each time) and with his time in the House he led countless conservative moves from supporting the lowering of property taxes to also fighting federal eminent domain laws after the SCOTUS Kelo vs New London decision.
In 2010 (mind you that is 10 years; 6 of them when Jeb was a governor and leading a conservative agenda, Marco being a speaker of the house for 4 years , meaning he was a key player, and then another 4 with moderate Crist- whom Marco opposed on many issues) he ran for the federal senate against Crist (who had been governor and had significant logistics) and Crist dropped out before the primaries were even over and went 3rd party. Rubio then won the race with 49% of the vote in a 3 way race. Rubio had political experience before entering the senate (all this happening in a purple state) and had fought some hard battles.
Contrast that to Barack. The guy did literally nothing while in the Illinois Senate (a blue state with no real opposition) for 7 years and when he ran for the federal senate he had to blackmail the incumbent in order to win. While in the Senate for 3 years he also did nothing again and then when given the chance to run as the young face took it in 2008.
Marco won his seat and was lauded as being the young face to run in 2012; he instead stuck to his duties in the senate (resisting the same temptation that Barack gone for) and carried on. Eventually in 2013 he did co sponsor the Amnesty Bill which he thought would eliminate any further illegal immigration by significantly increasing border control. It failed and as he stated that same year, it would have to be a multi step process in order to solve the issue; the first step being to secure the border.
Here are some of his statements related to immigration for reference.
http://www.ontheissues.org/International/Marco_Rubio_Immigration.htm
While in the senate he has fought for more conservative issues and fought the false dichotomies of the left. He has consistently advocated for raising the age of social security, eliminating the VA Bureacratic slack, protecting the 2nd amendment, maintaining our military, and defending religious issues (leaving it to state legislatures and not the Feds) to name a few.
On a final note, he has stated that he is not running for reelection to the senate. He is categorically speaking “all in” and isn’t running in with the biggest war chest by far. I wouldn’t call him perfect or an outsider. I would call him an elected public servant that has attempted to actually use his public service for the better of all. Not by trying to use the state to dominate the populace for some idealism but by legislating the state in it’s limited roles as the founders more or less envisioned. By attempting to win hearts and minds to conservative ideas and at a few times negotiating with fellow Americans (even those of the other party that arguably is ill willed to a degree) as Reagan did to hopefully better his nation.
He is not the perfect candidate but he is a good candidate with an arguably conservative record and political experience that would no doubt hammer the democrats and their leftist candidates into dust.