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Republican Suicide
Nine years ago, aboard a National Review cruise, I debated immigration policy with my colleagues and the cruisers. It was a good discussion that touched all the familiar bases. Are there really jobs Americans won’t do? Are big business and big agriculture enmeshed in a corrupt bargain with liberal Democrats whereby business gets cheap labor and Democrats get new voters?
I argued then, as I do today, that there are many serious immigration reforms we ought to be undertaking. We have a valuable commodity – the right to live and work in the USA (and in some cases to become a citizen) – and we should not be handing it out to just anyone. We should swiftly deport criminals even as we should be more welcoming to those who earn PhDs or bring other skills. But I also argue that illegal immigration, particularly from Mexico, is steeply declining and likely to continue to; that even most Republicans, to say nothing of the larger electorate, are moderate on immigration, and that immigrants tend to work hard.
I respect the restrictionist position, but there is one argument they advance that I do not understand. They say that unless we stop immigration – legal and illegal – there is no chance for conservative governance or for the Republican Party. I say, unless Republicans refrain from causing a stampede to the Democrats by denigrating Mexicans as “rapists” and urging “deportation” (even of American citizens!), we will not win another national election.
The demographic reality is already baked into the cake. The share of the electorate that considers itself Hispanic grew by 49 percent between 2000 and 2012, compared with 5.8 percent growth for the non-Hispanic portion. Hispanics are disproportionately young. The median age for native-born Hispanics is just 18, compared with 42 for non-Hispanic whites. The vast majority of Hispanic youths (93 percent) are native-born and thus eligible to vote when they turn 18, as 800,000 Hispanics do yearly. Generational replacement alone could double the number of Hispanic voters by 2032.
While it’s true that Hispanics remain only 10 percent of voters for now, their share of the electorate is growing in key swing states. In North Carolina, for example, the Hispanic share is projected to increase from 3.1 percent (2012) to 4.5 percent (2016). The white percentage is expected to drop by two points. Assuming 2012 turnout rates, North Carolina, which voted for Romney, would go to the Democrats. The picture is similar in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia.
Hispanic voter participation rates are among the lowest of any race or ethnic group. Only about half of eligible voters participate in presidential years and many fewer in off years. But that could change very fast. The presence of Barack Obama on the ballot shot black voter participation rates through the ceiling in 2008 and 2012. A Hispanic Democratic nominee might do the same for that demographic — as could the presence on the Republican ticket of a candidate who favors deporting American-born children of illegal immigrants.
“Oh please,” say the restrictionists, “Republicans can’t pander to Hispanics the way Democrats do.”
Nor should they. How about just appealing to them as Americans and not insulting them?
Consider the results of recent races. Greg Abbott, governor of Texas, won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. Georgia’s Republican Governor, Nathan Deal, won 47 percent of Hispanics, as did Gov. Sam Brownback in Kansas. In New Jersey in 2013, Gov. Chris Christie got 51 percent of the Hispanic vote. They were all winners. As Pew’s Mark Hugo Lopez, explained in 2014, “It’s not a massive phenomenon, but Latinos identified less with the Democratic Party and a growing share identified with Republicans.” It is not necessary for Republicans to win a majority of Hispanic votes to win elections. What they cannot survive is a trend in which African-American sized percentages of Hispanics vote Democrat.
In 2014, 49 percent of Hispanic voters said their number one issue was the economy, which was more than the 45 percent of the whole electorate who named the economy as the top issue, and dwarfed the 16 percent of Hispanics who cited immigration.
But that was in a year when Republicans were not at war with immigrants.
Everything depends on tone. With an inclusive message, there’s no limit to what Republicans might achieve, even on restricting immigration. But if the Trump claxon comes to define Republicanism, the list of those fleeing will start with Hispanics, but won’t end there. What’s left will be moribund.
Published in Immigration
Trump hasn’t convinced me he is an enthusiastic supporter of small business. Small business creates most of the new jobs in the US, and is most hurt by increased regulation. Look at how Dodd-Frank has reduced the number of community banks who provide most of the financing for small business, because they cannot afford the necessary increase in audit and legal staff. Because they cannot comply, they close and loans are not given. Large banks could loan in their place, but they don’t lend to small businesses.
Any immigration quota is restrictionist, as it should be. What is so hard to understand here? Please close the borders. We do not want people coming to America illegally and living here without consequence. We do not want sanctuary cities that condone this illegality. And if they successfully enter illegally, we don’t want them bringing in their relatives for compassionate family reasons. A country that does not control its borders is not sovereign. Look at the current situation in the European Union with their “open borders” policy. It is total chaos.
Darin, maybe not in this thread, but I am a serious person, and a temporary timeout should be discussed as an assist to assimilating those who have come and not assimilated. There has been significant immigration from cultures that are completely foreign to the American way of life. In my opinion, successful assimilation really needs to be addressed. We must end multiculturalism. Millions are coming from failed cultures. We should not applaud or emulate those failed cultures just to make those immigrants feel welcome. We should teach them a better alternative–the American alternative.
I think anyone who has not read Mexifornia and does not read Victor Davis Hansen on this topic regularly is not really as qualified to speak on immigration as they should be. If you do not understand what has happened in California’s Central Valley, and why it has happened, you will not be able to fix America’s immigration problems. I continue to maintain, that too many of the people trying to fix these problems have never seen first-hand the fruits of our current policies. I could give them a list of places to visit, but please read Victor first and weep.
Mona, I think you need to go to Stanford and discuss this topic with Victor. Then have him take you to his family farm in the Central Valley and a short tour of the area. You will be visiting an area that qualifies as a third world country. If you could contrast the current conditions with the ones 25 years ago, you would get a new understanding and appreciation of why immigration issues are so important to people who do not live in the Acela corridor and why Trump is so appealing to them.
I still regularly listen to you and Jay on NTK.
Al, the GOPe donor class is ultra wealthy and we aren’t. They won’t change, but they might change to Rubio.
Doc, as usual you are right. I love Rubio. I think he is the next Reagan. However I am currently supporting a Perry-Fiorina ticket. I just wish Rubio did not abdicate his re-election prospects.
Kasich will be their man, but Rubio will get consideration.
Kasich would be a horrible nominee.
I am Mr. Inclusive.
I’m happy to accept all Mexican PhDs who want come here legally…after we eliminate chain migration, that is.
Agree, and precisely why I think the boardroom at Right to Rise PAC is soon going to be a hotbed of debate with Kasich’s name being tossed around.
Mona Charen,
If you don’t mind taking a timeout from criticizing Republicans and echoing Democratic Party talking points – enjoyable though such things may be – could you devote perhaps one column to the travesty of “sanctuary cities” in the US, a situation that all conservatives must deplore.
I’d like to see how worked up you could get over these present-day secessionists.
I have read that, on a per capita basis, the proportion of immigrants among the US population is about the same as it’s been since the 19th century. If there is no massive increase in the proportion of immigrants, I personally see little reason why legal immigration needs to be halted.
Reform the rules on how applicants are evaluated so that the highest quality applicants get fast-tracked? Sure.
As Claire would say:
“Show. Don’t tell.”