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Republican Suicide
Nine years ago, aboard a National Review cruise, I debated immigration policy with my colleagues and the cruisers. It was a good discussion that touched all the familiar bases. Are there really jobs Americans won’t do? Are big business and big agriculture enmeshed in a corrupt bargain with liberal Democrats whereby business gets cheap labor and Democrats get new voters?
I argued then, as I do today, that there are many serious immigration reforms we ought to be undertaking. We have a valuable commodity – the right to live and work in the USA (and in some cases to become a citizen) – and we should not be handing it out to just anyone. We should swiftly deport criminals even as we should be more welcoming to those who earn PhDs or bring other skills. But I also argue that illegal immigration, particularly from Mexico, is steeply declining and likely to continue to; that even most Republicans, to say nothing of the larger electorate, are moderate on immigration, and that immigrants tend to work hard.
I respect the restrictionist position, but there is one argument they advance that I do not understand. They say that unless we stop immigration – legal and illegal – there is no chance for conservative governance or for the Republican Party. I say, unless Republicans refrain from causing a stampede to the Democrats by denigrating Mexicans as “rapists” and urging “deportation” (even of American citizens!), we will not win another national election.
The demographic reality is already baked into the cake. The share of the electorate that considers itself Hispanic grew by 49 percent between 2000 and 2012, compared with 5.8 percent growth for the non-Hispanic portion. Hispanics are disproportionately young. The median age for native-born Hispanics is just 18, compared with 42 for non-Hispanic whites. The vast majority of Hispanic youths (93 percent) are native-born and thus eligible to vote when they turn 18, as 800,000 Hispanics do yearly. Generational replacement alone could double the number of Hispanic voters by 2032.
While it’s true that Hispanics remain only 10 percent of voters for now, their share of the electorate is growing in key swing states. In North Carolina, for example, the Hispanic share is projected to increase from 3.1 percent (2012) to 4.5 percent (2016). The white percentage is expected to drop by two points. Assuming 2012 turnout rates, North Carolina, which voted for Romney, would go to the Democrats. The picture is similar in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia.
Hispanic voter participation rates are among the lowest of any race or ethnic group. Only about half of eligible voters participate in presidential years and many fewer in off years. But that could change very fast. The presence of Barack Obama on the ballot shot black voter participation rates through the ceiling in 2008 and 2012. A Hispanic Democratic nominee might do the same for that demographic — as could the presence on the Republican ticket of a candidate who favors deporting American-born children of illegal immigrants.
“Oh please,” say the restrictionists, “Republicans can’t pander to Hispanics the way Democrats do.”
Nor should they. How about just appealing to them as Americans and not insulting them?
Consider the results of recent races. Greg Abbott, governor of Texas, won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. Georgia’s Republican Governor, Nathan Deal, won 47 percent of Hispanics, as did Gov. Sam Brownback in Kansas. In New Jersey in 2013, Gov. Chris Christie got 51 percent of the Hispanic vote. They were all winners. As Pew’s Mark Hugo Lopez, explained in 2014, “It’s not a massive phenomenon, but Latinos identified less with the Democratic Party and a growing share identified with Republicans.” It is not necessary for Republicans to win a majority of Hispanic votes to win elections. What they cannot survive is a trend in which African-American sized percentages of Hispanics vote Democrat.
In 2014, 49 percent of Hispanic voters said their number one issue was the economy, which was more than the 45 percent of the whole electorate who named the economy as the top issue, and dwarfed the 16 percent of Hispanics who cited immigration.
But that was in a year when Republicans were not at war with immigrants.
Everything depends on tone. With an inclusive message, there’s no limit to what Republicans might achieve, even on restricting immigration. But if the Trump claxon comes to define Republicanism, the list of those fleeing will start with Hispanics, but won’t end there. What’s left will be moribund.
Published in Immigration
I never got that impression, even when I was watching the speech as it was broadcast live over-the-air.
Oh please. What does “they” refer to? All Mexicans?
No. You are just taking the quote out of context. It doesn’t even make sense that Trump thinks Mexicans are rapists. The women too? This is willful ignorance.
This right here is another example of why the Conservative movement is dead. So the advocating of immigration enforcement is going to solidify Hispanic enslavement to the Democrat plantation? We can’t even try to go into Hispanic neighborhoods and explain to them where we are coming from? There is no will to win. The Republican Party is the political version of Notre Dame’s football team, no will to win despite having the talent to do so.
I figured the “rapists” to be a sub-group of the “people that have lots of problems.”
They’re not “rapists,” They’re “undocumented, unsolicited, anchor baby manufacturers.”
The republican had already lost a good portion of their base well before Trump entered this race. They were just in denial.
I’m not a Trump booster, but I find little to support in the republican party as it is currently constituted.
NTK will always be must-listen for me, even when I disagree with one of the hosts. Mona irresistibly combines top-flight pundit incisiveness with a boundless warmth of spirit. I am always in a better mood after listening to her.
The republican ‘party’ either grossly misunderstands its base, or is just in open defiance of it. I tend to think it’s the latter.
Over my life time, they’ve walked away from principals I hold dear, toward supporting big government and cronyism. And in doing so, have helped sew the seeds of this country’s demise – at least the limited government, constitutional version of it. It breaks my heart – I can scarcely watch as it happens!
Trump is not the answer – but neither is the “modern” republican party. I think some are supporting Trump because, well, what else is there to do? Support people who’ll cast you and your family aside before the election machines have cooled?
What to do, what to do?
Maybe we could change the term to “unskilled-labor immigration.”
Well, I haven’t listened for quite some time now. Maybe there was just a run of podcasts that discouraged me.
Therapists are like that too.
Manfred, thanks. I learned a new word too.
So, we meet again, Trebek…
People are going to think I’m nuts to say this, but according to this post last week, 50 newborn babies died this past month in a falling-down filthy hospital in Venezuela. Venezuela is collapsing.
A flood of refugees like the ones leaving Syria and Iraq could easily materialize on our southern border.
I hope the government has a contingency plan.
And we need to get our immigration procedures organized.
Not because of what happened this year but because of what may happen next year.
Over the past few election cycles, the base had come to see the republicans as stupid, weak, and incapable of strategic thinking. That was because the base believed their republican “representatives” supported causes and positions they claimed to support. And yet, these representative were utterly ineffectual in supporting and advocating for those positions.
But if you understand their real motivations, their actions (or inaction) begin to make sense. Their real consistency is the donor class- and their own powerful careers, of course All laws, treaties, initiatives etc need to work for the benefit of this constituency no matter its effect on the rest of us. But, poor souls, they have to come out cycle after cycle and lie to us about their intentions and positions. Then later, they have to say that they were ‘powerless’ to do what they promised. Hey, but if you vote for them again, they will surly get it done next time! I think the ones that have some remaining conscience will try to convince themselves that what they’re doing is actually good for all – but they refuse to debate it, or to acknowledge the harm they’re really doing to the average American. Also, they’ve been holed up with their cronies for too long – and can only see things from that vantage. They don’t understand us – and don’t really care to understand our lives.
George, good effort, but, I’m no longer buying any of it. I’m done with the GOP establishment and GOP establishment pundits.
Only if Mexico lets them through. By my understanding, Mexico keeps its southern border pretty tight.
I LOVE how Mona calls people who want the law enforced “restrictionists”.
Can I derisively call people who think I should pay my taxes “restrictionists”?
How about people who think I should drive the speed limit?
Honestly, why should I follow any law that doesn’t benefit my family? Isn’t that the criteria now?
Mona: “I respect the restrictionist position”
No, I don’t believe she does.
You’re not nuts, you are insightful and 100% correct.
They could come by boat, with half of them dying on the way.
Mona, I hope you come back to address these comments. I’d like to think you and I have had a “conversation” on these issues before and I’d like to reiterate and expand on a couple of points:
I think you buy the Mike Murphy/La Raza argument that Hispanics have been obsessed by this issue of racial solidarity/balkanization to the exclusion of everything else. I dispute that paradymn. I think most Latino’s feel as totally mainstream American as Cameron Diaz or Jennifer Lopez. I don’t think they vote on racial solidarity issues, they vote Democrat because half are on welfare and half of the remainder work for public employee unions or like employment situations. When that matrix changes their voting patterns will change. I think Latino’s, if impacted at all by Trump [who is not going to be our nominee] will think his candor is refreshing. Nobody is going to vote against Republicans because Trump said you can’t kill your parents and then beg for mercy because you’re an orphan, they know that his anti-anchor baby rhetoric signifies a change in our bargaining stance, not what is going to be the final package.
By the way, I will continue to listen to NTK even if you disagree with me.
I’m in, DocJay…
I’m sorry but I haven’t seen one serious person saying that legal immigration should be halted.
MarciN: A flood of refugees like the ones leaving Syria and Iraq could easily materialize on our southern border.
We live a quarter mile from the Rio Grande, five miles or so down from the Mexican border. We have often imagined what would happen in a catastrophe situation, and doubtless hordes would surge across from Juárez. We would have to abandon our home and head for the mountains where we have a bug out cabin. If we have time.
I am not sure a wall would even slow them down, and for sure we won’t militarily stop them, not in this border town. It’s a real worry.
It is nice to see this “Trump is not Racist” and “he didnt call all mexicans rapists”-whining. Doh. Like that’s the point. Some people just dont get it, Lol.
Republicans lost it already.
Well Kate, life with 4 studs hopped on on Testosterone gel and Cialis could provide you with some great literary material. We have to get a title though and Border Breeders has been taken by some puppy mill already.
Sigh . Another lecture by one of our betters. We down here at the knuckle dragging , un enlightened base of ‘crazies’ who seem confused between what we see with our eyes everyday and what Mona tells us is so just do not deserve our ruling class.
May I suggest our ruling class leave and find a better class of idiot serfs to lord it over? We will never be worthy of you.
I also am flabbergasted that Jeb is not recognized for the destructive force to the conservative cause and the GOP that he is. Like a Rip van Winkle who woke up after a long sleep, he is totally out of touch with today’s political environment. He is blind to the damage that the lawless Obama administration has done to America’s institutions and did nothing in the last seven years to help us fight it. Jeb’s immigration policy is compassion rather than sovereignty, and his enthusiastic embrace of multiculturalism will destroy what little remains of the culture which made us the greatest nation on earth. The GOP donor class needs to reevaluate whether they have made a good bet. I don’t think they have.