Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Betting On The GOP Nomination
I recently signed up for an account with PredictIt, a new site that’s replaced the long-defunct InTrade. While we’re tracking what the Ricochet members prefer and what the different pollsters around the country are researching I thought it would be interesting to get a unique perspective. This “poll” is interesting because it’s people putting their money where their mouth is.
With no further introduction, I present you the GOP nomination race according to the bettors. I’m willing to guess that this will be as close to the actual outcome as any poll out there.
Wait a second… he’s a studies grad? Seriously?
Well, not with my vote.
Well, his bio says “Latin American affairs”. But I notice that “affairs” is never capitalized in any of the official information. I find that significant. If the degree was “Latin American Affairs” – they would write that, I think. Other sources say “studies”.
Plus, UT offers degrees in “Latin American Studies”, but not “Latin American Affairs”. What this the case at the time? I don’t know…..
Wait – Per Wiki:
He graduated Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude from the University of Texas with a B.A. in Latin American Studies.[11][22] He completed his coursework in two and a half years.[23]
Rubio and Kasich on the same ticket cover the two must important electoral states. Agree with you vs. the child tax credits, but we have a Congress to fix bad ideas which sounded good during a campaign.
I’m not sure if I haven’t lost my confidence in Congress. The executive and judicial branches have certainly been calling the shots in the last 6 years.
I have confidence in Paul Ryan’s slide rule.
Everything in DC plays differently with a new Party host at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
UT? He lived in Knoxville and I didn’t know?
Where I’m from, we know that UT is University of Texas. Unless you ask an Aggie, then they say it TU.
I believe this overstates it broadly. The corruption on the left becomes corruption on the right. Our cis-moderates and trans-moderates need not bother themselves with fine distinctions.
Not sure what this means. Maybe something about the transportation bill? What you call corruption may be what I call business as usual in Washington.
A few years ago I looked into a close race in a district in NY State, and the sitting Republican’s website was all about bringing home the bacon. That’s the way it is in lower middle class districts in the north east. It’s still possible to win those seats, just not with ideologically far right candidates. So what always happens with transportation bills is going to keep happening. Or it will be defeated, and people voting against it will answer to local votes who refuse to eliminate pork from their diets.
My point is when Republicans don’t have to worry about a veto, they’ll pass some (not all) legislation with broader approval in the party. For now, very few things can possibly be passed over a veto. Hopefully scuttling the Iran deal will be one of those things, but it will be very hard. While I’d like to see a comprehensive, electorally marketable Obamacare repeal/replace bill land on the President’s desk, I don’t generally believe that narrowly targeted minor issue right wing veto bait is politically advantageous.
Re moderates, in certain districts it’s imperative to bring back some of the moderates who were defeated by Democrats in past elections because of ill-advised primary choices. Senator Coons in Delaware, for instance, is up for re-election in 2016. There are many in that category.
Going further, in some areas where it is impossible to defeat Democrats and because of State jungle primary laws (e.g. California) there will be two Democrats on the November ballot, it is important to support the less left wing Democrat.
So one of the best growth areas for Republicans, in terms of corralling votes for individual bills, is finding fiscally moderate Democrats to run in that party in deep blue districts. Gubernatorial voters in Illinois, Maryland, etc. trust the GOP to sort out their fiscal mess. If those concerns, choices, and attitudes can be sparked within the Democratic Party, district by district, we’ll be able to fashion less “compromised” compromise legislation. It’s a tall order, but this far left wing course the Dems are on really need to be addressed within their party framework, if Republicans are overcome Democrat obstructionism after we win 1600 in 2016.
That is very interesting. My gut feel is that Trump, though I hate to admit it, is higher than that, and Rand Paul lower than that. But otherwise about right.