Tag: Polls

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Most folks here know I put little faith in polls because they can be engineered to achieve the desired result. Also, calling a poll “scientific” is being dishonest, IMHO. This poll recently came out: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/americans-satisfied-personal-life-record More

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Lots of big news to break down on Tuesday’s Three Martini Lunch! Join Jim and Greg as they marvel at how much better President Trump is doing against all top-tier Democrats in three key battleground states than he was before impeachment began. They also discuss the IG report savaging the FBI and Justice Department for it’s sloppy, error-ridden FISA warrant requests aimed at the Trump campaign, and since the inspector general could not definitively find proof of political motivation, they’re left to shudder at the conclusion that the FBI is just thoroughly reckless and incompetent at its job. And Jim finds it awfully curious that Democrats would announce two articles of impeachment this morning and then immediately announce a series of legislative compromises with President Trump.

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One good and two crazy martinis await today. Jim and Greg react to House Democrat Brenda Lawrence backing away from impeachment and now saying censuring President Trump would be more appropriate in an election year. They also try to figure out what Barack Obama’s 2020 approach is as he not only doesn’t endorse Joe Biden but in private is apparently slamming Biden’s inability to connect with voters. And they roll their eyes as Harvard and Yale students disrupt the annual football game between the two schools to protest both schools for investing in fossil fuels.

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After a surprisingly brief venting about how bad their football teams are, Jim and Greg serve up three good martinis. They welcome New York Times polling showing Warren as the weakest major Democratic candidate against President Trump and an NYT editorial blasting Warren for falsely claiming that only billionaires would see higher taxes in her plan to pay for single-payer health care. Then they relish the exit of Beto O’Rourke from the 2020 Democratic field and also hammer the media for building up Beto as some sort of transformational figure in 2018 when he was always an empty suit. And Jim highlights his extensive profile of U.S. Attorney John Durham, the tight-lipped prosecutor tapped to investigate how the Trump-Russia investigation began in the first place.

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Good polls, confusing polls and politicizing math are the focus of our martinis on Wednesday. Jim and Greg are glad to see Republican U.S. Senate challenger John James already in a virtual dead heat with Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan. They also shake their heads as a new Kaiser Family Foundation survey shows a majority of Americans support Medicare for All but oppose it by large margins when they actually understand it means the end of private insurance. And they throw up their hands as school officials in Seattle consider adding an emphasis on ethnic studies into all subjects, including taking time in math class to explain how math is oppressive to people of color and is used to exploit natural resources.

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The laughs are even more abundant than usual today on the Three Martini Lunch! Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America begin by applauding CBS for reporting the real headline from the new books on the Kavanuagh fight – that one of Christine Blasey Ford’s supposed witnesses was pressured to lie to support Ford’s story. They also enjoy seeing poll after poll showing Sen. Kamala Harris is slipping badly from her position as a top tier candidate. And as liberal critics wring their hands over Andrew Yang joking that he knows a lot of doctors because he’s Asian, Jim and Greg suggest everyone lighten up and have some fun with their own ethnicities.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer Fox News host Neil Cavuto for rebutting President Trump’s claim that “Fox News is no longer working for us” and for reminding politicians and media outlets what the job of the press should be. They also cringe as new Pew poll numbers show 82 percent of Democrats believe abortion should be legal in most or all circumstances – a huge jump from last decade. And Jim has a lot of say after former Canadian Prime Minister Kim Campbell states that she hopes Hurricane Dorian hits Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

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David French of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America discuss Hong Kong hitting pause on an extradition agreement with the Chinese government following massive protests. They also examine the Supreme Court’s approach to Christian vendors vs. the LGBT agenda. They consider what comes next after Iran’s decision to exceed the low-grade uranium limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal. And they also discuss the Trump campaign’s decision to fire its pollsters after unfavorable leaks of bad numbers.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are back with another full serving of crazy martinis. First, they question the motives and geometry skills of Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, who publicly insists that Lindsay Graham is somehow “compromised” because he’s become more supportive of President Trump. They also dissect the bumbling scheme confessed by Michael Cohen, who says Trump directed him to pay thousands of dollars to rig online polls in 2014 and 2015. And that’s just the beginning of the story. Finally, Jim shares some lesser-known details and oddities from the career of former Vice President Joe Biden that he uncovered for his latest article.

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Polls in my area open in 17 minutes. I am 5th in line. Four are behind me. More

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America wince at many of the final polls showing Democrats with the momentum in several key races. They also wonder why Republicans have not spent most of their time and money discussing the strength of the economy instead of more polarizing issues like the caravan. And they unload on Saturday Night Live comedian Pete Davidson for mocking Texas GOP congressional candidate Dan Crenshaw for wearing an eye patch and saying, “I’m sorry. I know he lost his eye in war or whatever.”

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Forecasting the Senate

 

Wednesday night, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight released their much anticipated Senate model, forecasting the results of November’s election. According to Nate Silver, it’s basically the same thing as the House model, except it looks at Senate seats.

As with the House model, there are three versions: Lite, Classic, and Deluxe (represented on their website with burger icons). The Lite version is just based on polling. The Classic adds “fundamentals” (historical trends, fundraising, etc.), and the Deluxe adds expert ratings. (The three levels matter more in the Congressional model where there are fewer polls for individual districts.)

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer up as they see new Senate polls showing Rick Scott with a healthy lead in Florida and Republicans within striking distance in Wisconsin. They also shake their heads as Sen. Elizabeth Warren issues perfunctory condolences to the family of Mollie Tibbetts but says we need to focus on our real immigration problems. And they marvel at Senate Democrats, who now insist that the consideration of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh must wait because Michael Cohen has accused President Trump of a campaign finance violation.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America celebrate another free speech victory coming out of the Supreme Court as it ruled against a Minnesota law that banned political apparel at the polls. They also remain confused at President Donald Trump’s praise for the murderous North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-Un. And they look at the initial details of the long-anticipated Inspector’s General report about Comey, Lynch, and the Hillary Clinton private server investigation.

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In basketball parlance, the fourth and decisive quarter of this year’s election doesn’t commence until after Labor Day. But that doesn’t mean important trends haven’t developed. Hoover senior fellow and renowned pollster Doug Rivers explains what current survey data suggests about the political fortunes of President Trump, Republicans and Democrats.

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Ready or not, America, here it comes: Early polling from “First In The Nation” New Hampshire says it’s President Trump vs Pocahontas. Circle the wagons! We discuss it with pollster David Paleologos.

What’s it like to be the token conservative at one of America’s most liberal newspapers? We ask the Boston Globe’s Jeff Jacoby.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America shake their heads as the Republican National Committee furiously tries to line up a few Democrats to push Mike Pompeo over the finish line as the next Secretary of State. They also hang their heads as large percentages of Americans demonstrate very poor knowledge about the Holocaust, including 41 percent of Americans and 66 percent of millennials who have no idea what Auschwitz was. And they throw up their hands, as the Republican National Committee tries to discredit the upcoming media blitz from former FBI Director James Comey by favorable quoting Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Maxine Waters.

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The coming midterm election is more than a litmus test of the Trump presidency. It’s also a continuation of a fourth cycle of political polarization dating back to the Civil War. David Brady, the Hoover Institution’s Davies Family Senior Fellow, explains the sorting-out in the election – a possible surge in women voters, Trump loyalists’ enthusiasm, and the two parties dealing with their respective ideological differences in elections nationwide.

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