Tag: Polls

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Lots of big news to break down on Tuesday’s Three Martini Lunch! Join Jim and Greg as they marvel at how much better President Trump is doing against all top-tier Democrats in three key battleground states than he was before impeachment began. They also discuss the IG report savaging the FBI and Justice Department for […]

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One good and two crazy martinis await today. Jim and Greg react to House Democrat Brenda Lawrence backing away from impeachment and now saying censuring President Trump would be more appropriate in an election year. They also try to figure out what Barack Obama’s 2020 approach is as he not only doesn’t endorse Joe Biden […]

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After a surprisingly brief venting about how bad their football teams are, Jim and Greg serve up three good martinis. They welcome New York Times polling showing Warren as the weakest major Democratic candidate against President Trump and an NYT editorial blasting Warren for falsely claiming that only billionaires would see higher taxes in her […]

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Good polls, confusing polls and politicizing math are the focus of our martinis on Wednesday. Jim and Greg are glad to see Republican U.S. Senate challenger John James already in a virtual dead heat with Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan. They also shake their heads as a new Kaiser Family Foundation survey shows a […]

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The laughs are even more abundant than usual today on the Three Martini Lunch! Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America begin by applauding CBS for reporting the real headline from the new books on the Kavanuagh fight – that one of Christine Blasey Ford’s supposed witnesses was pressured to lie […]

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer Fox News host Neil Cavuto for rebutting President Trump’s claim that “Fox News is no longer working for us” and for reminding politicians and media outlets what the job of the press should be. They also cringe as new Pew poll numbers show […]

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David French of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America discuss Hong Kong hitting pause on an extradition agreement with the Chinese government following massive protests. They also examine the Supreme Court’s approach to Christian vendors vs. the LGBT agenda. They consider what comes next after Iran’s decision to exceed the low-grade uranium limit […]

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are back with another full serving of crazy martinis. First, they question the motives and geometry skills of Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, who publicly insists that Lindsay Graham is somehow “compromised” because he’s become more supportive of President Trump. They also dissect the […]

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Polls in my area open in 17 minutes. I am 5th in line. Four are behind me. More

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America wince at many of the final polls showing Democrats with the momentum in several key races. They also wonder why Republicans have not spent most of their time and money discussing the strength of the economy instead of more polarizing issues like the caravan. […]

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Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Forecasting the Senate

 

Wednesday night, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight released their much anticipated Senate model, forecasting the results of November’s election. According to Nate Silver, it’s basically the same thing as the House model, except it looks at Senate seats.

As with the House model, there are three versions: Lite, Classic, and Deluxe (represented on their website with burger icons). The Lite version is just based on polling. The Classic adds “fundamentals” (historical trends, fundraising, etc.), and the Deluxe adds expert ratings. (The three levels matter more in the Congressional model where there are fewer polls for individual districts.)

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer up as they see new Senate polls showing Rick Scott with a healthy lead in Florida and Republicans within striking distance in Wisconsin. They also shake their heads as Sen. Elizabeth Warren issues perfunctory condolences to the family of Mollie Tibbetts but says […]

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America celebrate another free speech victory coming out of the Supreme Court as it ruled against a Minnesota law that banned political apparel at the polls. They also remain confused at President Donald Trump’s praise for the murderous North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-Un. And they look at the […]

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In basketball parlance, the fourth and decisive quarter of this year’s election doesn’t commence until after Labor Day. But that doesn’t mean important trends haven’t developed. Hoover senior fellow and renowned pollster Doug Rivers explains what current survey data suggests about the political fortunes of President Trump, Republicans and Democrats. More

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Ready or not, America, here it comes: Early polling from “First In The Nation” New Hampshire says it’s President Trump vs Pocahontas. Circle the wagons! We discuss it with pollster David Paleologos. What’s it like to be the token conservative at one of America’s most liberal newspapers? We ask the Boston Globe’s Jeff Jacoby. More

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America shake their heads as the Republican National Committee furiously tries to line up a few Democrats to push Mike Pompeo over the finish line as the next Secretary of State. They also hang their heads as large percentages of Americans demonstrate very poor knowledge […]

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The coming midterm election is more than a litmus test of the Trump presidency. It’s also a continuation of a fourth cycle of political polarization dating back to the Civil War. David Brady, the Hoover Institution’s Davies Family Senior Fellow, explains the sorting-out in the election – a possible surge in women voters, Trump loyalists’ […]

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With the polling data available, how does the discerning citizen make sense of the Trump presidency and the probabilities in the upcoming midterm election? David Brady, the Hoover Institution’s Davies Family Senior Fellows, offers his viewers’ guide for how to track U.S. politics in the months ahead. More

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