Tag: Polls

Join Jim and Greg as they welcome victories for Republican candidates in the North Carolina and Alaska Senate races. They also applaud former Secretary of State Jim Baker for blasting pollsters for consistently being wrong and almost always in the same partisan direction. And they welcome a hand recount and audit of the presidential race in Georgia.

Join Jim and Greg as the navigate through the states that are still too close to call in the presidential race and the dueling Trump and Biden campaign pronouncements that they’ve already won. They also discuss Republicans beating expectations in House and Senate races and the decent chance the GOP has to keep a Senate majority. And they unload on the polling industry, which once again did not have a clue, with one notable exception.

Another Reason to Distrust Polls. This Time, It’s Evidence Based.

 

We all get those annoying headlines stating “Biden is ahead of Trump by X.” And we’re told that it’s based on science and Big Data, so you can take it to the bank. Well, any amount of time around conservative sites like Ricochet knows that we try very hard not to take “Biden is ahead of Trump by X” as gospel.

Today, we have a legitimate, authoritative, reason to distrust polls. Today, the US Supreme Court announced its decision in Barr v American Association of Political Consultants Inc. For a little background, the Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991 prohibits companies from making robocalls to cellphones. Congress, in 2015, decided to add an exception to the TCPA for purposes of collecting on any debt owed to or guaranteed by the U.S. Government.

Join Jim and Greg as they welcome more help from Congress to help small businesses stay afloat. They also shudder at a new poll showing 75 percent of seniors don’t even want non-essential workers to be allowed outside.  And they discuss the significance of learning coronavirus was here and killing people earlier than we thought.

Member Post

 

Most folks here know I put little faith in polls because they can be engineered to achieve the desired result.  Also, calling a poll “scientific” is being dishonest, IMHO.  This poll recently came out: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/americans-satisfied-personal-life-record Preview Open

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Lots of big news to break down on Tuesday’s Three Martini Lunch!  Join Jim and Greg as they marvel at how much better President Trump is doing against all top-tier Democrats in three key battleground states than he was before impeachment began.  They also discuss the IG report savaging the FBI and Justice Department for it’s sloppy, error-ridden FISA warrant requests aimed at the Trump campaign, and since the inspector general could not definitively find proof of  political motivation, they’re left to shudder at the conclusion that the FBI is just thoroughly reckless and incompetent at its job.  And Jim finds it awfully curious that Democrats would announce two articles of impeachment this morning and then immediately announce a series of legislative compromises with President Trump.

One good and two crazy martinis await today. Jim and Greg react to House Democrat Brenda Lawrence backing away from impeachment and now saying censuring President Trump would be more appropriate in an election year. They also try to figure out what Barack Obama’s 2020 approach is as he not only doesn’t endorse Joe Biden but in private is apparently slamming Biden’s inability to connect with voters. And they roll their eyes as Harvard and Yale students disrupt the annual football game between the two schools to protest both schools for investing in fossil fuels.

After a surprisingly brief venting about how bad their football teams are, Jim and Greg serve up three good martinis.  They welcome New York Times polling showing Warren as the weakest major Democratic candidate against President Trump and an NYT editorial blasting Warren for falsely claiming that only billionaires would see higher taxes in her plan to pay for single-payer health care.  Then they relish the exit of Beto O’Rourke from the 2020 Democratic field and also hammer the media for building up Beto as some sort of transformational figure in 2018 when he was always an empty suit.  And Jim highlights his extensive profile of U.S. Attorney John Durham, the tight-lipped prosecutor tapped to investigate how the Trump-Russia investigation began in the first place.

Good polls, confusing polls and politicizing math are the focus of our martinis on Wednesday.  Jim and Greg are glad to see Republican U.S. Senate challenger John James already in a virtual dead heat with Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan.  They also shake their heads as a new Kaiser Family Foundation survey shows a majority of Americans support Medicare for All but oppose it by large margins when they actually understand it means the end of private insurance.  And they throw up their hands as school officials in Seattle consider adding an emphasis on ethnic studies into all subjects, including taking time in math class to explain how math is oppressive to people of color and is used to exploit natural resources.

The laughs are even more abundant than usual today on the Three Martini Lunch!  Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America begin by applauding CBS for reporting the real headline from the new books on the Kavanuagh fight – that one of Christine Blasey Ford’s supposed witnesses was pressured to lie to support Ford’s story.  They also enjoy seeing poll after poll showing Sen. Kamala Harris is slipping badly from her position as a top tier candidate.  And as liberal critics wring their hands over Andrew Yang joking that he knows a lot of doctors because he’s Asian, Jim and Greg suggest everyone lighten up and have some fun with their own ethnicities.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer Fox News host Neil Cavuto for rebutting President Trump’s claim that “Fox News is no longer working for us” and for reminding politicians and media outlets what the job of the press should be. They also cringe as new Pew poll numbers show 82 percent of Democrats believe abortion should be legal in most or all circumstances – a huge jump from last decade. And Jim has a lot of say after former Canadian Prime Minister Kim Campbell states that she hopes Hurricane Dorian hits Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

David French of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America discuss Hong Kong hitting pause on an extradition agreement with the Chinese government following massive protests. They also examine the Supreme Court’s approach to Christian vendors vs. the LGBT agenda. They consider what comes next after Iran’s decision to exceed the low-grade uranium limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal. And they also discuss the Trump campaign’s decision to fire its pollsters after unfavorable leaks of bad numbers.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are back with another full serving of crazy martinis.  First, they question the motives and geometry skills of Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, who publicly insists that Lindsay Graham is somehow “compromised” because he’s become more supportive of President Trump.  They also dissect the bumbling scheme confessed by Michael Cohen, who says Trump directed him to pay thousands of dollars to rig online polls in 2014 and 2015.  And that’s just the beginning of the story.  Finally, Jim shares some lesser-known details and oddities from the career of former Vice President Joe Biden that he uncovered for his latest article.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America wince at many of the final polls showing Democrats with the momentum in several key races.  They also wonder why Republicans have not spent most of their time and money discussing the strength of the economy instead of more polarizing issues like the caravan.  And they unload on Saturday Night Live comedian Pete Davidson for mocking Texas GOP congressional candidate Dan Crenshaw for wearing an eye patch and saying, “I’m sorry.  I know he lost his eye in war or whatever.”

Forecasting the Senate

 

Wednesday night, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight released their much anticipated Senate model, forecasting the results of November’s election. According to Nate Silver, it’s basically the same thing as the House model, except it looks at Senate seats.

As with the House model, there are three versions: Lite, Classic, and Deluxe (represented on their website with burger icons). The Lite version is just based on polling. The Classic adds “fundamentals” (historical trends, fundraising, etc.), and the Deluxe adds expert ratings. (The three levels matter more in the Congressional model where there are fewer polls for individual districts.)

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer up as they see new Senate polls showing Rick Scott with a healthy lead in Florida and Republicans within striking distance in Wisconsin.  They also shake their heads as Sen. Elizabeth Warren issues perfunctory condolences to the family of Mollie Tibbetts but says we need to focus on our real immigration problems.  And they marvel at Senate Democrats, who now insist that the consideration of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh must wait because Michael Cohen has accused President Trump of a campaign finance violation.