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Betting On The GOP Nomination
I recently signed up for an account with PredictIt, a new site that’s replaced the long-defunct InTrade. While we’re tracking what the Ricochet members prefer and what the different pollsters around the country are researching I thought it would be interesting to get a unique perspective. This “poll” is interesting because it’s people putting their money where their mouth is.
With no further introduction, I present you the GOP nomination race according to the bettors. I’m willing to guess that this will be as close to the actual outcome as any poll out there.
I don’t see Carly Fiorina!?!
Yeah . . . she’s in my top 3!
I’ll also note that in the poll on the sidebar, she’s in first place for second choice. :)
My thoughts exactly.
I definitely trust this poll much more as a predictor than calling people who actually answer their phone when strangers call.
However we have to remember this is a poll of people who have enough money to bet on something like this.
A subset of America.
I❤️ Carley. Don’t tell Mrs Cheese.
I don’t want to bet on this.
But is there a place where I can bet that if Jeb Bush is nominated, he will lose the election to the Democrat?
What’s the line?
I’ll take any odds.
I’ll bet my house.
Wait. I lost my house after the last Bush.
Never mind.
(just kidding I didn’t lose my house…..almost though)
Well, according to the bettors. According to the betters, it’s Jeb! Jeb! Jeb! at 111%.
In one of the Great Courses to which I have listened lately, the accuracy of voting by betting was discussed and explained. They call it the “wisdom of crowds.” I think the course was “Unexpected Ecnomics”. Interesting series of lectures. Anyway, it turns out that the wisdom of crowds who put skin in the game is amazingly more accurate that the collective wisdom of experts.
[I received no compensation for my plug of the podcastr sponsor.]
I’m amazed Kasich is so high up.
So how does this work exactly?
I’m not familiar with this particular site, but InTrade was a futures market. In a futures market, there is an agreement to exchange the purchase price for $1 at maturity if the condition is met.
So for example, consider someone who buys a Jeb Yes contract. At the maturity date (say, the day after the GOP convention), if Jeb wins, the seller pays $1 minus the purchase price, or $0.53. If Jeb loses, the buyer pays $0.47 and gets nothing.
In political futures, there are often problems around how the event is defined. For example, is the presidential election result to be measured the day after? What if there are hanging chads? Or should it be measured on inauguration day? In that case, what happens if the candidate drops dead after the election?
Her last trade was at 6 cents which puts her 16th.
On the Iowa Electronic Market you can buy a futures contract for Republican/ Democrat winner. Current pricing is 59/41 favoring the Democrat.
Sadly, PredictIt does not allow users from the Great White North.
Kinda makes me wonder who exactly is betting on the upcoming Canuckistani election.
Franco, from what I read on Drudge recently (can’t find the link at the moment), Jeb B. has a pretty good shot at stealing Hillary’s voters, if they are the two going head to head. Sigh. Explains the squishiness of Jeb –he’s looking ahead.
I want to throw up in my mouth. The GOP will lose this election if they stick with the puppet boy.
That’s the beauty of the futures markets. You can hedge your outcome to make lots of money if the GOP loses. That way, if the GOP wins, we all win. And if the GOP loses, you make lots of money to help defray the cost of ammo.
Yes, SoS, shorting Mitt futures in 2012 worked well for me.
I can make a hundred bucks in 5 seconds doing a prostate exam. That’s far more honorable work than shorting the GOP but there’s an analogy dying to come out.
It’s a minimum of $10 and a max of $850. This isn’t the high-rollers table.
Exactly, thanks SoS. I think the only difference here is that if you lose your bet you just lose what you bet. They match all the Yes shares with corresponding No shares. People have criticized this approach when it comes to questions where you have multiple possible outcomes. We’ll see if that ends up being a flaw.
Here’s the bottom end of that chart, after Ben Carson, although this is from today’s bets.
Rick Wilson said the same thing on twitter. My thinking is that Kasich’s strategy is to draft the Bush campaign and wait for him to crash or a better moment to breakout.
I understand Bush dominating… the establishment wants him badly, and they foot the bills, but… who the hell is betting so hard on Kasich?
He’s done a great job in Ohio and I’d love to see him running with Carly. All talent aside, the two have some additional important bona fides:
Electoral votes for him and an extremely competent woman who would wipe the floor with HC in a debate.
Marco Rubio is a second choice for me; great state legislative background working with Jeb, 29 electoral votes, invincible in his handling of the MSM, perfect on national security and provides an opportunity to win specific segments of Hispanic voters. He’s dropped to second on my list however because although I was willing to overlook his approach to immigration reform, his recent plan to double child tax credits and raise taxes on singles and childless couples has left me cold. (Paul Ryan agrees with me on this particular issue.)
H’mmm. Why are bid/ask spreads so wide on Bush and Carson (which is ginormous based on the last trade) and no one else? Do they publish trade volumes? Or is the answer to be found elsewhere?
(Note to kids: what portion of your college funds I haven’t yet drunk up, I’ve now placed on the highly undervalued Rick Perry. Should he cross the line in 17th walking backwards, you’ll no doubt appreciate all the ironies involved in your moving to Texas for the $10K baccalaureate. Go Aggies.)
People I WILL NOT vote for include:
Jeb!, Rubio, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie and Trump.
Don’t ask. The answer is “no”. The same ole, same ole is just taking us down the wrong path. And Trump is, well, Trump – you can’t just look at what someone says now, during an election, but look at how they’ve acted in the past – so, no Trump either.
Hey BTW, did you know that Jeb! got his undergraduate degree from UT in, get this, Latin American Studies! Its true (and very funny).
That’s a shame because Rubio is going to win.
I don’t think you’re wrong and again, I won’t lose sleep over this providing he selects Carly as his running mate.
prediction markets will eventually replace polling for how people track political races