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The Race for Second?
There is no next-in-line for the GOP nomination this cycle. We had one of the least-inspiring candidates the last time around — last two times? — while the other candidates all sputtered and fell.
This means the race is wide open, and we’ve already had much better talent announced already than we’ve had in the recent past (admittedly, not the highest bar to clear). But I think the vast majority of people, whether or not Scott Walker is exactly their man, don’t see any of the senators pictured here as having what it takes to make it.
This leads to speculation of what exactly Cruz, Rubio, and Paul are trying to accomplish by running. Sure, it will expand their national profile, and that’s usually a good thing for the narcissists who think they can and should rule others. Maybe they are trying to influence debate and nudge the platform and eventual nominee in their preferred direction.
Or perhaps these talented, but less-than-presidentially-credentialed, men are aiming for something more: they want to be the runner up.
What better spot for an ambitious, younger (Cruz and Rubio are both in the early 40s and Paul is less than ten years older) firebrand then to be the party’s default choice four, eight, twelve years from now? Maybe you’ll be Vice President. Maybe you’ll have a chance to snag a governorship in the state you’ve already represented in the Senate. Maybe lightning will strike and the course of events will leave you with the nomination against a weak, decrepit, corrupt, geriatric of the in-party when people have the 7-year itch.
Either way, the most coveted prize for these individuals isn’t necessarily to catch fire and burn out in this cycle, but rather to become the parties default choice with a little more experience, a few more accomplishments, some more wisdom, and the benefit that comes from having been through the nomination process once before.
Published in Elections, Politics
Rubio/ Walker with Cruz as Attorney General. Works for me. 16 years of running the executive might be enough to begin to fix things for my grandchildren.
According to reports, Rubio hates the Senate. This is a sympathetic position. It’s also, perhaps, not the best reason to leave it — but who can tell another how they must serve?
I wish, at least, that he were not closing the door so early. But I can’t dismiss him as a political candidate, either. He has an appeal the other two don’t. I just don’t want him and Walker to cancel each other out.
I’d be fine in theory with Rubio as VP — but he can’t be Bush’s choice, and Walker has indicated he’d prefer a governor. The dynamics of the race could change that, for better or worse.
I think the obvious next-in-line is Rick Perry.
That’s pretty much how we got Bill Clinton. Most of the “serious” Democrats sat out the 1992 race because Bush looked unbeatable after the Gulf War. Clinton got in for the practice, and to build up a donor base for the next round. Then we had a mild recession and H. Ross Perot.
Actually, we’ve been seeing what happened when a poorly credentialed, first term senator becomes President for the past six years- but don’t worry, it’s even stronger evidence for your point.
I don’t think that’s the case. The sort of people who are likely to be excited about Hillary being the first woman president are not likely to change their minds because the GOP candidate picked a woman for the (largely irrelevant and powerless) position of VP.
I’m half convinced that when Obama tossed his hat into the ring for the 2008 race that he was only laying the groundwork for 2012.
I think this is true, but your answer of “the GOP’s margin in the senate” rings true. I suspect that the party would be quite a lot better off with Rubio running for Governor as a sitting senator, but maybe Rubio will perform amazingly this cycle and I’ll get to enjoy eating my crow in a Rubio administration.
I think that it would be easy to overstate the impact; you’re right that the vast bulk of women wouldn’t be impacted by it.
I also think that the impact can be understated, though. Liberal attacks on our female candidate would dramatically limit the success of their arguments that conservative attacks on Rodham were gendered. In particular, it would energize the conservative female vote to see protection for women being explicitly not extended to them.
Also, it’d mean that voting R wasn’t saying that women would never have their turn, but that they’d have to wait a little. If we have Martinez or Haley as Veep this cycle, a win would make it extremely likely that Martinez or Haley would be our nominee in ’24. That’s not an irrelevant or powerless position, even before the Vice Presidential duties (was Cheney irrelevant or powerless? Gore? Bush?), or the possibility of candidate death or resignation. Having a, say, 20% chance of taking the most powerful job in the world seems more important than being, for instance, a Senator, a Governor, or, really, any job that isn’t POTUS. Maybe the Chief Justice is more important, but that’s a stiff bar for being relevant or powerful.