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Iran: It’s Worse Than You Think
Last night I had the opportunity to watch a discussion by two leading experts on the Middle East—Ray Takeyh and Elliott Abrams—joined for a short period by Senator Tom Cotton, and hosted by the Tikvah Foundation’s Jonathan Silver. To say the least, I was stunned and alarmed by their views, and realized that if the world doesn’t respond skillfully and soon to the machinations of Iran, the results could be deadly. I’d like to summarize the key points I learned and share my thoughts on how the road ahead could be dangerous, but it could also transform the Middle East.
One of the most alarming points that the world needs to note is the nature of Iran leadership. According to Abrams, the country is being led by a new, small elite which is even more ideological, vicious and dangerous than the mullahs we’ve known. He described the Iranian attack this past weekend as reckless and evil. Both Takeyh and Abrams believe that Iran’s intention was to kill as many Israelis as they could; the leadership were not interested in grandstanding.
Tom Cotton made some interesting points as well. He confirmed that the U.S. efforts to stop the Iranian program was a joke and pursued “for show.”
As a result, they all believed that a tougher Iranian policy was required, that “existing assumptions no longer apply.” They didn’t point to Joe Biden directly, but his coddling, empowering, and investing in Iran will lead to further disaster if he continues.
Especially fascinating was that Abrams said that Israel’s assumptions about Hamas were wrong, too. They didn’t expect Hamas to act as they did on October 7, and were unprepared for that vicious attack.
All the guests agreed that Israel must move forward with its plans. It must invade Rafah. It must at some point attack Hezbollah. And it will need to attack Iran in a way that sends a message that they are not going to simply “take the win” as Biden suggested. Otherwise Hamas will assume that Israel has been cowed by Iran and they may feel empowered by that assumption. The Israeli attack will depend on how the Israel War Council assesses what is required.
An interesting side note came from Abrams who noted that Pesach was approaching; he wondered if the Israelis would wait for the next couple weeks before attacking Iran, implying a delay might not be wise.
* * * *
What are the conclusions that I drew from this discussion? First, Biden has been manipulated by the Iranian regime for several years, and Obama before him, and the longer he continues to acquiesce to them, the greater the risk will be for the entire Middle East and perhaps the world. Second, the potential for limiting Iran is significant, given that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan joined in attacking Iran’s drones and missiles; they have known for a long time of Iran’s threat to the Middle East, but may just be realizing the power they could demonstrate by joining with one another and with Israel. Third, a new assessment must be conducted to get a true reading on the menace Iran has become; that assessment should include the possibility for regime change. Next, Israel must give the impression that it’s listening to Joe Biden, but also must continue to act independently. If shipments of military equipment are cut back (and I doubt Biden will do that), they’ll find a way forward.
Over the years I have found Elliott Abrams to be extremely credible and clear-eyed. Although I haven’t followed Ray Takeyh, his expertise on Iran was clearly appreciated by Abrams.
These assessments are timely and I hope there will be a way to put pressure on Biden to finally act aggressively against Iran.
Before it’s too late.
Published in Islamist Terrorism
I agree. Did they mention a goal of making Israel expend a lot of its weaponry in that attack? They should have.
They didn’t say that, RH, but that would have assumed a rational purpose on Iran’s part. They really did make the Iran elite sounds nuts, IMHO.
They are radical nuts. The MAD strategy doesn’t deter them. Bernard Lewis called it an “inducement.”
Obama is not much more than a Post-Colonial Marxist. Biden has taken the same path both on a national level and foreign level. When he says “Don’t” he is referring to not only Iran, but he is also referring to Israel as well. He is taking the same path with Ukraine as well. While Russia is conducting strikes against Ukrainian cities, he is telling Ukraine not to conduct strikes against Russian arms depots, oil refineries, and Russian arms factories inside Russia. He is telling Ukraine don’t.
There are two times when I put my flag out for a foreign country.
April 19, 1943 the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising:
August 1, 1944 the Warsaw Uprising:
Next year I will put my flag out on October 7 as well for Israel, the day of the Hamas attack on Israel.
This is a beautiful practice, Doug. Thank you for sharing it.
Takeyh (an interesting homonym for “Taqiyya”) and Abrams are engaging in Taqiyya or delusional.
Iran used much less than one one tenth of one percent of their available arsenal (and the low end throw-weight of that). And it kept Hezbollah and Hamas/PIJ out of it.
Well, duh! I would have said that’s pretty much a no brainer, were it not for the cretins for whom Obummer and Biden can do nothing wrong. (They must have SOME brain! I think.)
I’m not clear what your comment about their arsenal means. And why do you think they’re delusional?
Then you really shouldn’t be writing on the subject.
I gave another option.
I must have missed that. But since you’ve insulted me, you don’t have to clarify.
My flag flies every day except when bad storms are coming. I am going to buy an Israeli flag for 10/7 and I think I may buy a Polish flag for April 19 and August 1.
Side note – my daughter is studying in Amsterdam for the semester. Mrs. Bunsen and I went to visit her and toured the Anne Frank House. And since we got home, we have been watching “A small light” on Disney+ (yes I was shocked as well). It is the Anne Frank story from the view of one the “Helpers”, Miep Gies. She was Otto Frank’s assistant. The tour of the house and the show are both very moving.
MAD doesn’t work with madmen, or in this case, religious zealots . . .
Huh? International estimates are that Iran has 3,000 cruise missiles – the most dangerous and expensive parts of their arsenal to intercept.
They used ~120.
So 1/10th of 1% would imply they used… let’s see: 3000/100/10 = 3.
Math sure is hard for Israel haters.
It is harder to say what the drone fleet is as they are actively exporting them to a customer who is using them to kill Ukrainians. And cruise missiles are also unclear. Then again, they are simpler and cheaper to hit.
All by intent. I wouldnt trust any of these people to give an accurate assessment of Iran and its current leadership.
I am watching a lot of independent spaces and analysis from retired professional officers. Their analysis, is that Iran made a proportionate response targeting Isreali military assets and they were far more effective than what is reported in the Corporate News.
I have a friend who is a high level operative in the Persian Resistance. Works for BBC Persia in fact. He does not describe the current leadership as has been discussed above.
What is Iran thinking? Isreal killed two of their Generals. Their response was to send 67 milliond dollars of missiles to destroy a billion dollars worth of western missiles.
Iran thinks they are allied with Russia and China, winners and that Isreal is allied with the USA a bunch of losers.
And they are right. The West cant defeat the Houthis. They certainly cant defeat Iran.
Troubling days ahead. We need to stop thinking like arrogant children and realize that we need inteligent answers instead of just believing in our non-existand technological and moral supremacy.
Incoming artillery fire doesnt give a damn about your righteousness.
The Iranian leadership is very intelligent, and very evil.
I think the ‘nuts’ description is about their baseline aspirations and values. They see their fundamental mission as the destruction of Israel, the United States and Britain.
It is not an entirely unreasonable goal in terms of achievability.
It is an entirely unreasonable goal in terms of admirable, positive or productive goals. It is driven by a religious fanaticism that most State Debt and other Western analysts simply can’t comprehend.
This failure to comprehend is leading to policy ideas that are massively boneheaded and that could lead to a nuclear war.
Iran has to be dealt with. It is a near-term threat to Israel and so Israel is line one.
But their mission goes far beyond Israel. “Death to America” is more than a slogan.
Instead of being dealt with, they have been coddled.
Iran is NOT the Houthis. The Houthis are a popular Yemeni movement that can hide in the hills. The Ayatollahs control a State with many many people who despise them. Take away the State and everything Iran changes. The Ayatollahs might become a resistance movement, but they are far far less dangerous in that capacity. History hasn’t seen resistance movements building nuclear weapons.
Now Ayatollah Khomeini was a brilliant man. His State was very well engineered. Eliminating the leadership will do next to nothing – there are mechanisms in place for replacement. Popular protests (as seen) will do next to nothing.
The only solution is to empower the locals to violently overthrow the government and then give them a little help.
The locals need guns. The guns are there, they just can’t get them. Instead the protest suppressing Basij have them.
That can be fixed. It should be fixed.
Tomorrow.
Thanks so much for weighing in, Joseph. Excellent points.
Of course, Iran leadership isn’t stupid. They manipulate the US leadership. They get funding, verbal criticism of Israel, and access from the US.
I think we need to re-think who our allies actually are. Not Israel. Maybe Iran?
Marxist do tend to stick together
Here’s the full write-up on this I did in 2015: https://ricochet.com/1562157/dealing-with-iran-circa-2015/
Excellent article.
-so Dems modeled our elections after Iran’s.
-A recent briefer modeling the future said something interesting- Americans aren’t mentally prepared for the casualties in future conflicts.
Not necessarily. China had a big break with the Soviet Union. The south Slavs stayed independent of Stalin and his successors.
That could very well be how their leadership thinks. To them, a billion dollars worth of weapons seems like a lot. After all, Iran manages to produce almost 70% of the Israeli GDP with only 9 times the Israeli population.
They have spats like siblings do.
This is just my amateur opinion, but I think China is more like mafia than communists. It’s like 50 families that want to rip off their own people and the whole world.
A “mafia” rooted in Marxism.
Marxism might be the handy tool, but what they do in the end is crime in the service of money and power. They will never give that up in the service of supposedly making everybody’s life better. I could be talked out of it, but that’s the way I see it.
I’ve said this before. The people that ran the Soviet Union had 6X with the average person had if you added it up. it’s not like that now. It’s gross mafia.
Not manipulated if you go along willingly….
Actually, being manipulated IS going along willingly, even if it’s against your best judgment or previous convictions. It doesn’t mean being coerced, it means being handled.