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Running on Empty?
There have been many questions asked about the Israeli delay in the invasion of Gaza. Some say that the US and other nations are responsible for the delay.
Perhaps the answer has more to do with military tactics. Israel is not allowing fuel deliveries into Gaza. When the fuel for generators is depleted, Hamas fighters will have to leave their tunnels and face Israeli armor and air strikes.
From the ISW October 24 Iran Update:
Published in MilitaryHamas hostage negotiations collapsed after Hamas demanded that Israel allow fuel deliveries into the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson said that fuel will not enter the strip because Hamas uses fuel for its military infrastructure. Israeli sources said that Israel estimates that Hamas and allied militias are low on fuel and will need to leave their tunnel networks underneath the Gaza Strip once their fuel is depleted.
Hamas and allied Palestinian militias took hostages during the October 7 attack likely to discourage an Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip and/or to secure concessions of some kind. Israeli actions and rhetoric suggest that Hamas and allied militias will fail to generate those desired effects, however. Israel is continuing to prepare for a possible ground operation into the Gaza Strip, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel-
Hamas and its allies are preparing the information environment to blame Israel for the possible deaths of hostages in the Gaza Strip, especially if Hamas begins killing hostages. Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida said on October 9 that Hamas would kill hostages in response to Israeli airstrikes, indicating Hamas’ willingness to do so for perceived military and/or political gains. Tasnim News Agency—an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—reported on October 22 that Israel’s “clandestine goal” is to “cause the killing of captive Israelis,” according to “informed sources. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) spokesperson Abu Hamza said on October 24 that Israel does not “pay attention” to the lives of hostages.
I’d love to think that when the Biden apparatchiki advise the Israelis to wait that they act as if they grudgingly acquiesce, all while holding a different plan in mind.
I can’t help but think of Iwo Jima and the brutal warfare that was necessary to take out the Japanese forces when the Gaza tunnels are mentioned. Prayers for divine intervention are in order.
If their running out of fuel brings them out, so be it.
The only military advice the IDF should take is from US Soldiers and Marines that fought in Fallujah and the battle for the Cemetery in Najaf, as well as the pilots that provided close air support in Iraq and Afghanistan.
That’s an interesting thought and it might be. It seem to me that the longer the delay, the more the world galvanizes against supporting Israel. The closer in time the retribution is to the crime, the more justified it looks. The delay is planting a subtle disconnect between the Hamas inhumanity and the Israeli response. For the sake of public opinion I would not advocate this delay. If the tactical advantage, though, is substantial then I can understand. It better be substantial.
The BBC appears to have deleted the webpage text version of a story this morning about hospitals having to close after Israel pointed to large stores of oil in Gaza.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-gaza-photos-show-half-million-liters-of-fuel-held-by-hamas/
A video counterpart:
And see from 10/14:
“Fuel reserves at Gaza hospitals likely to run out in 24 hours, UN warns”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67108364
A miracle greater than Chanukah.
The only obligations Israel has is to protect their citizens and minimize their IDF losses to eliminate Hamas. A good battle plan should never include a fair fight.
Who was the soldier who said that if you’re engaging in a fair fight with the enemy you’re doing it wrong?
My short answer would be the late, great, and sorely missed Ricochet member Boss Mongo.
Fuel, food, other perishables…..all are in finite quantities in tunnels. I think tactically thats exactly the thinking. World opinion/pressure is the only potential drawback but I really don’t think the Israelis care. This a fight for existence, not world opinion.
Well, I agree on the last statement. If a battle plan includes a fair fight, you have planned incorrectly. Of course they have only an obligation to protect their citizens, but in the long run worldwide opinion against brings other issues for the future.
If Hamas has any sense or organization, it will be reducing its fuel usage as much as possible and reducing the loads on its generators to string this out as long as possible. Even then, they could begin to scavenge fuel from vehicles if they want to get really crafty. However, I’d think that the longer the blockade runs, the easier it will be to identify Hamas targets via thermal imaging as only the most organized or powerful organizations will be able to maintain engines or equipment running at all. This could again serve Israeli interests in figuring out where these butchers are hiding.
That would be good, but if they don’t get resupplied on defensive missiles etc it still doesn’t help.
I have seen it reported that part of the reason behind the delay is to allow the US to rush anti-missile batteries, materiel, personnel, and munitions to protect US forces already stationed around the ME. I surmise this is because of the very reasonable thought that once Israel goes into Gaza on the ground, Hezbollah will strike from the north, Islamic Jihad from the West Bank, and various and sundry terrorist groups will try their luck against Americans wheresoever they may be in the ME.
Thanks Biden. [spit]
Without fuel, Hamas cannot light or ventilate the tunnels. Without fuel, cell phones and radios are not powered (though solar might do some of this…)
Why does Israel not destroy the fuel tanks?
I suspect that the real reason for the delay is twofold:
(1) The Israelis know that they will suffer terrible casualties if they invade Gaza. Urban warfare is a nightmare.
(2) The Israelis have been warned that the carnage among Palestinian civilians, in the event of an invasion, will dwarf the civilian casualties that the Israelis suffered on October 7. They’ve probably already killed 2-3 times as many Palestinian civilians as they lost. Such a bloodbath will disgust much of the world, and turn opinion against them.
My impression is that outside the US and Europe, most of the world already favors the Palestinians. Pro-Israel sentiment is strongest in the US, but weaker than it used to be. Europe is only tenuously supportive, and continued Israeli atrocities will undermine the political support that the Israelis need.
We’ll see what happens. I suspect that Netanyahu’s government will fall fairly soon, once the current bloodlust dissipates. This might seriously discredit what is called the “right” in Israel.