Statistics Question: How Old is this Bar?

 

What you’re looking at is a bar made by arranging roughly a hundred bucks* in pennies over the surface and coating them in plastic. I can read the dates off of some of the pennies (those that aren’t flipped upside down), but quite obviously not all the pennies were minted in the same year.

Here’s the question: Judging solely by the dates these pennies were minted what year was this bar constructed? How many dates would I** need to read to have a reasonable confidence in that answer? Should I bother taking dates off of the dull pennies, or only focus on the shiny new ones?


*I arrive at this number by a Fermi estimation. Assuming the bar is twenty feet long, two feet across, and that the radius of a penny is 9.775 mm (thanks Bing) how much is it worth?

**Well, not me personally but I do have a research team nearby. I doubt I’m welcome back in that establishment after telling the bartender that she was going to have trouble finding her tip.

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  1. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Perhaps not, depending on your age and agility.  It might simply be a prudent cost-benefit calculation. 

    • #151
  2. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Perhaps not, depending on your age and agility. It might simply be a prudent cost-benefit calculation.

    I am financially well off, so I figure there’s people for whom a coin on the ground will mean more than it does to me,  and leave the coins I see for them. I usually pick up the ones I myself have dropped though. 

    • #152
  3. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Past a certain age, it’s the definition of prudence.

    EDIT: Schmidt’d!

    • #153
  4. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    I am financially well off, so I figure there’s people for whom a coin on the ground will mean more than it does to me, and leave the coins I see for them. I usually pick up the ones I myself have dropped though.

    Both Trump and Biden are well off.  Trump could probably snatch up a fallen penny with flare and hand it to a nearby kid.  Biden would wobble or worse.  

    • #154
  5. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White Male
    @MiffedWhiteMale

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Perhaps not, depending on your age and agility. It might simply be a prudent cost-benefit calculation.

    I am financially well off, so I figure there’s people for whom a coin on the ground will mean more than it does to me, and leave the coins I see for them. I usually pick up the ones I myself have dropped though.

    By the same measure, throwing aluminum cans out the car window isn’t littering, it’s charity for the people who come and collect the cans and turn them in.

     

    • #155
  6. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Perhaps not, depending on your age and agility. It might simply be a prudent cost-benefit calculation.

    I am financially well off, so I figure there’s people for whom a coin on the ground will mean more than it does to me, and leave the coins I see for them. I usually pick up the ones I myself have dropped though.

    By the same measure, throwing aluminum cans out the car window isn’t littering, it’s charity for the people who come and collect the cans and turn them in.

     

    And it promotes healthy physical activity and participation in the economy.  

    • #156
  7. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Perhaps not, depending on your age and agility. It might simply be a prudent cost-benefit calculation.

    I am financially well off, so I figure there’s people for whom a coin on the ground will mean more than it does to me, and leave the coins I see for them. I usually pick up the ones I myself have dropped though.

    By the same measure, throwing aluminum cans out the car window isn’t littering, it’s charity for the people who come and collect the cans and turn them in.

     

    Where I worked a custom developed among the office workers who ate lunch in the nearby park to put the paper trash in the park trash cans but leave the aluminum cans on the conveniently wide rims of the park trash cans.

    • #157
  8. Globalitarian Misanthropist Coolidge
    Globalitarian Misanthropist
    @Flicker

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Globalitarian Misanthropist (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Internet’s Hank (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):
    And add two years because it takes a year or two to get into sufficient circulation.

    Does it though?

    New Year’s resolution: Announce the date I find the first 2023 penny.

    July 31st, 2023, in the Westby Cooperative Creamery, Westby, Wisconsin.

    Well. More than half a year then; round up a good bit and I’m half right. But it does throw off my calculations. Now where is that envelope.

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    I do cash purchases but I don’t even count my change. I don’t even pick up pennies off the sidewalk anymore. Isn’t that decadent?

    Perhaps not, depending on your age and agility. It might simply be a prudent cost-benefit calculation.

    I am financially well off, so I figure there’s people for whom a coin on the ground will mean more than it does to me, and leave the coins I see for them. I usually pick up the ones I myself have dropped though.

    By the same measure, throwing aluminum cans out the car window isn’t littering, it’s charity for the people who come and collect the cans and turn them in.

    And it promotes healthy physical activity and participation in the economy.

    This is why I throw stones at glass houses.  I’m thinking of the economy.

    • #158
  9. Internet's Hank Contributor
    Internet's Hank
    @HankRhody

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    My hunch is that we’d discover the new coins earlier if we were doing more cash purchases.

    As a rule I pay cash for small purchases, and I’ve been checking pennies ever since this thread went up. My intuition was that I’d find a 2023 penny around March, but it’s been more than twice that.

    • #159
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