Ukraine Taking My Advice

 

When the Russians were pushed from Kharkiv back in September, I wrote an unpopular post advocating that Ukraine attack inside Russia. Here it is.

I just wanted to point out that Ukraine is now routinely doing this with the drones they have — Sunday night they hit a major Russian air base (Engels) some 300 km from the Ukrainian border. They are following Sun-Tzu: attack where the enemy is not defending. Leapfrog the guys on the ground, and make Russia pay where they are not expecting an attack. This is the way to force Putin to sue for peace. Ukraine should keep doing it with every tool available. The end of evil dictators is something we should very much desire.

I went back and read the comments. The things predicted by the naysayers on that post (loss of Western support, Russia escalating to nukes, etc.) have all NOT happened. Admittedly, I advocated attacking on the ground (not realizing Ukraine had the aerial reach to pull off these attacks), but the principle remains. And so does the result.

Sometimes, a guy just has to point out when he wuz right.

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  1. D.A. Venters Inactive
    D.A. Venters
    @DAVenters

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    What’s been happening, since your post, is that the Russians shortened their lines in the south and gained the Dnieper as a natural barrier, while accumulating forces for a slow, methodical advance from the east.

    That’s one way to put it, I guess.  Now, if the Russians can only manage to “gain” their own border, they can really claim a great victory.  Not a natural barrier, I admit, but sometimes a political barrier is even better.  And they can shorten their lines to nothing – no lines at all.  Very easy to defend.  That’s the kind of outside-the-box thinking that wins wars.

    • #91
  2. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    The Russians have likely raised an army close to a million men.

    Even if Russia somehow raises an army of 1,000,000 men AND takes Ukraine or most likely just part of Ukraine…

    1.  How are they going to be able to hold Ukraine with 1,000,000 soldiers minus those killed?  Are these 1,000,000 men going to be trained and enthusiastic to kill, torture, fight, die, and become seriously injured?  Are these 1,000,000 Russian soldiers going to be armed with guns and ammunition or just rocks and sticks?
    2.  Taking a country is one thing.  Holding it is something completely different.  The US had to deal with improvised explosive devices in Iraq.  I think the Yankees surrendered their military occupation of The South around 1877 with Jim Crow lasting about 90 more years.
    3.  You think the governments or just citizens of Poland, the Baltic countries, Georgia, and others are not going to do whatever it takes to make a Russian occupation a nightmare?  The Ukrainian support for Russia right now is supposedly about 2%.  I would not think that it could be much more than that.

    “everyone telling Ukriane is winning, told you that Covid was real … Afghanistan was pure as the driven snow”

    Trump-era COVID deaths at Election Day 2020 — 230,000.
    3.78 times as many deaths during the vaccine, Biden, and less-deadly variant era.

    Number of US military deaths in Afghanistan between August 2020 and July 2021 — ZERO.

    Number of US military deaths in Afghanistan between August 2014 and July 2021
    — 109, or about 1.3 deaths a month.

    Number of US military deaths by accidents and suicide, 2006-2021: 11,128, or about 62 a month.
    (And this number does not include undetermined or pending death investigations.)

    Biden, Trump, and many Americans wanted the US to surrender, so the US surrendered.  Possibly President Trump, Mike Pompeo, and others would have made the situation a bit better somehow by leaving in the non-fighting winter season and would have gained a few concessions, but I guess we will never know.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan

    https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10899.pdf

    • #92
  3. mildlyo Member
    mildlyo
    @mildlyo

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Here’s the chart I was trying to find…

     

     

    Reported by whom?

    By God.

    Here are the latest figures…

     

    These are some pretty impressive claims. Hope these turn out to be more accurate than the war in Serbia back in the 1990’s. We never could find those thousands of tanks we thought we had bombed.

    • #93
  4. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Here are the latest figures…

     

    These are some pretty impressive claims. Hope these turn out to be more accurate than the war in Serbia back in the 1990’s. We never could find those thousands of tanks we thought we had bombed.

    Yeah, who knows what is exactly true.

    One expert recently said that Russia has never surrendered in a war with losing at least 500,000 men.

    I guess he does not include the Soviet–Afghan War where they lost between 14,453 and 26,000 men
    The First Chechen War where they lost 14,000+
    The Polish–Soviet War where they lost about 60,000 men with 80,000-85,000 taken prisoner
    The Russo-Japanese War where they lost about 34,000–52,623 men with 74,369 taken prisoner, etc.

    If the Russians aren’t surrendering until they lose 500,000 men, that means that this war could easily go on for another 5 or 10 years until Putin is 75 or 80 years old.

    Average life expectancy for men in Russia is 66.49 years while the world average life expectancy for men is 70.57 years, so I just kind of assume that the war will continue until Putin is dead.

    • #94
  5. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):
    Biden, Trump, and many Americans wanted the US to surrender, so the US surrendered.  Possibly President Trump, Mike Pompeo, and others would have made the situation a bit better somehow by leaving in the non-fighting winter season and would have gained a few concessions, but I guess we will never know.

    Biden picked up the most imbecilic Trump objective, and rather than bagging it like he did controlling our borders or maintaining our oil production, he implemented it on an accelerated basis just to get a 20 second sound bite for the twentieth anniversary of 9/11.

    The Boy from Scranton has coal for brains.

    • #95
  6. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    iWe: The end of evil dictators is something we should very much desire.

    Define ‘evil dictator’?

    Someone who bans a major religion in his country, confiscates church property, and imprisons priests?

    Someone who jails his main political opponent?

    Someone who bans all independent press?

    Someone who maintains secret police?

    Someone who maintains a death list for those who criticize his government and do not slavishly adhere to his propaganda?

    Someone whose military forces admire and adulate Bandera, whose forces sent Ukrainian Jews to the gas chambers?

    Like that?

    That would be Zelensky and Ukraine.

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend …. Putin is the enemy of the United States, therefore Zelensky and Ukraine is a friend of the United States.

    The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy.

    • #96
  7. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    Putin is trying to intimidate or to go to war against Kazakhstan too. 

    Kazakhstan may have half the population of Ukraine, but it has about 4 1/2 times as much land as Ukraine.

    All of Putin’s neighbors except for his puppet in Belarus seem to be really tired of the threats and intimidation.

    • #97
  8. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Putin is trying to intimidate or to go to war against Kazakhstan too.

    Kazakhstan may have half the population of Ukraine, but it has about 4 1/2 times as much land as Ukraine.

    All of Putin’s neighbors except for his puppet in Belarus seem to be really tired of the threats and intimidation.

    The people in Belarus seem to be getting tired of Putin’s puppet in Belarus.

    • #98
  9. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Putin is trying to intimidate or to go to war against Kazakhstan too.

    Kazakhstan may have half the population of Ukraine, but it has about 4 1/2 times as much land as Ukraine.

    All of Putin’s neighbors except for his puppet in Belarus seem to be really tired of the threats and intimidation.

    Who is the man in speaking in this video?

    • #99
  10. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Putin is trying to intimidate or to go to war against Kazakhstan too. 

     

    As I predicted back in April: 

    Russia ends up without an effective military. Which makes it ripe for secessionist movements across the land, as well as invaders across borders (like Japan retaking the Kuril Islands), because there is no effective force to prevent these internal and external forces from breaking Russia into smaller and smaller pieces. China may even invade to secure much-needed oil and gas resources.

    So the irony in this situation would be that Putin will have achieved precisely the opposite of his goal. Instead of presiding over the expansion of Russia, he is the last dictator of Russia as we know it today.

    • #100
  11. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    iWe: The end of evil dictators is something we should very much desire.

    Define ‘evil dictator’?

    Someone who bans a major religion in his country, confiscates church property, and imprisons priests?

    Someone who jails his main political opponent?

    Someone who bans all independent press?

    Someone who maintains secret police?

    Someone who maintains a death list for those who criticize his government and do not slavishly adhere to his propaganda?

    Someone whose military forces admire and adulate Bandera, whose forces sent Ukrainian Jews to the gas chambers?

    Like that?

    That would be Zelensky and Ukraine.

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend …. Putin is the enemy of the United States, therefore Zelensky and Ukraine is a friend of the United States.

    The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy.

    And I need to learn logic?

    • #101
  12. MDHahn Coolidge
    MDHahn
    @MDHahn

    I was skeptical of your earlier call to flank the Russians by invading Russia itself. I still am. However, if the reports on Ukrainian drone strikes are accurate, that’s a good development. The important thing for me is that Ukraine should only hit military and logistical targets. It cannot hit civilians. 

    I’m glad Ukraine is taking the fight to the Russians and I hope that they can hold out through the winter. 

    • #102
  13. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    MiMac (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend …. Putin is the enemy of the United States, therefore Zelensky and Ukraine is a friend of the United States.

    The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy.

    And I need to learn logic?

    Clearly.

    • #103
  14. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Here are the latest figures…

     

    These are some pretty impressive claims. Hope these turn out to be more accurate than the war in Serbia back in the 1990’s. We never could find those thousands of tanks we thought we had bombed.

    Yeah, who knows what is exactly true.

    One expert recently said that Russia has never surrendered in a war with losing at least 500,000 men.

    I guess he does not include the Soviet–Afghan War where they lost between 14,453 and 26,000 men
    The First Chechen War where they lost 14,000+
    The Polish–Soviet War where they lost about 60,000 men with 80,000-85,000 taken prisoner
    The Russo-Japanese War where they lost about 34,000–52,623 men with 74,369 taken prisoner, etc.

    If the Russians aren’t surrendering until they lose 500,000 men, that means that this war could easily go on for another 5 or 10 years until Putin is 75 or 80 years old.

    Average life expectancy for men in Russia is 66.49 years while the world average life expectancy for men is 70.57 years, so I just kind of assume that the war will continue until Putin is dead.

    For photo verified losses (which obviously undercounts the actual losses) try:

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    they note-

    1577 Russian tanks lost

    735 AFVs lost

    1849 IFVs lost

    etc

    • #104
  15. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Here are the latest figures…

     

    These are some pretty impressive claims. Hope these turn out to be more accurate than the war in Serbia back in the 1990’s. We never could find those thousands of tanks we thought we had bombed.

    Yeah, who knows what is exactly true.

    Come on man!  The Kyiv Independent wouldn’t lie to you! 

    • #105
  16. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Zafar (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Here are the latest figures…

    These are some pretty impressive claims. Hope these turn out to be more accurate than the war in Serbia back in the 1990’s. We never could find those thousands of tanks we thought we had bombed.

    Yeah, who knows what is exactly true.

    Come on man! The Kyiv Independent wouldn’t lie to you!

    The Russians say that they’ve suffered 10,000  KIA. The Ukrainians say it’s 100,000. The UK MoD estimates 96,000.

    They could all be lying.

    • #106
  17. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    Russia’s sphere of vital interests has included Ukraine for over 300 years, since Peter the Great, if not earlier.

    Russia–RUSSIA–recognized Ukraine’s independence in 1991.

    Yes.  And we promised Russia that we wouldn’t expand NATO eastward.  Then we did, twice.  Then, in 2008, we said that we were going to expand NATO eastward a third time, to Ukraine and Georgia.  Then, when Ukraine had a pro-Russian government, we backed a pro-NATO, pro-EU coup in 2014.  That led Russia to seize Crimea, and to support the breakaway Donbas regions.

    There were two peace deals negotiated regarding the Donbas regions, which broke down, and the Ukrainians shelled civilian targets, as I understand it.

    I also suspect that Putin had a tacit understanding with Trump about leaving the status quo alone, but when Biden took office, we announced — again — plans to make Ukraine a part of NATO.  Russia made it clear that this was unacceptable, and we ignored their warning. 

    So, unsurprisingly, they attacked.  Just as we probably would have done in Cuba had Khrushchev not backed down during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    • #107
  18. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    MiMac (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    To the OP: When you made your suggestion, and for one month afterwards, the Ukrainians had heat in their homes and reliable light and power in their cities. One month after your advice they blew up the Crimea bridge. The Russians responded in kind and Ukrainians no longer have heat, toilets that flush, nor reliable light and power.

    Expanding the war from a clash of militaries to a total war was a choice.

    Good points.

    Further, iWe, you weren’t right. I looked at your prior post again. You were calling for Ukraine to “invade” Russia, not just launch airstrikes. You specifically mentioned an attack in the direction of Belgorod.

    Your suggestion, in the present post, that the Ukrainians “leapfrog” the Russians on the ground, sounds like a terrible idea to me. How would the Ukrainians supply such forces? Have you ever studied, say, Anzio? Or Market Garden? Do you even know these references?

    What’s been happening, since your post, is that the Russians shortened their lines in the south and gained the Dnieper as a natural barrier, while accumulating forces for a slow, methodical advance from the east. They continue to advance. This, of course, is in addition to the significant damage from Russian airstrikes noted by mildlyo.

    You prior post seemed to call for something like the German Battle of the Bulge offensive, which didn’t go well for them. The current one comes across as the Germans celebrating some V-2 attacks on Britain, while the Allied armies advanced from Normandy.

    It is true, though, that the Russian forces are smaller than those assembled for Normandy, but then, the Ukrainian forces are smaller than the German forces at the Bulge, too.

    In the long run, greater population and production generally prevails in a war, unless the larger power has little interest in the conflict and decides to cut its losses. We’re the ones with little interest in Ukraine. The Russians seem to be almost unanimously agreed that Ukraine is in their sphere of vital interests.

    Why does Russia get to count Ukraine as in its “sphere of influence” if Ukraine doesn’t agree?

    Look at a map. The answer is the same as the “Monroe Doctrine”.

    The Monroe Doctrine didn’t assert the US right to control South American countries-it just prevented European countries from controlling South American countries. Very different from Russia getting to control any country it borders on.

    No, it’s exactly the same thing.  It’s about Russia preventing NATO and the EU from controlling Ukraine.

    Also, in practice, the Monroe Doctrine has led to quite a bit of US domination and control over Central and South America.

    • #108
  19. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    To the OP: When you made your suggestion, and for one month afterwards, the Ukrainians had heat in their homes and reliable light and power in their cities. One month after your advice they blew up the Crimea bridge. The Russians responded in kind and Ukrainians no longer have heat, toilets that flush, nor reliable light and power.

    Expanding the war from a clash of militaries to a total war was a choice.

    Good points.

    Further, iWe, you weren’t right. I looked at your prior post again. You were calling for Ukraine to “invade” Russia, not just launch airstrikes. You specifically mentioned an attack in the direction of Belgorod.

    Your suggestion, in the present post, that the Ukrainians “leapfrog” the Russians on the ground, sounds like a terrible idea to me. How would the Ukrainians supply such forces? Have you ever studied, say, Anzio? Or Market Garden? Do you even know these references?

    What’s been happening, since your post, is that the Russians shortened their lines in the south and gained the Dnieper as a natural barrier, while accumulating forces for a slow, methodical advance from the east. They continue to advance. This, of course, is in addition to the significant damage from Russian airstrikes noted by mildlyo.

    You prior post seemed to call for something like the German Battle of the Bulge offensive, which didn’t go well for them. The current one comes across as the Germans celebrating some V-2 attacks on Britain, while the Allied armies advanced from Normandy.

    It is true, though, that the Russian forces are smaller than those assembled for Normandy, but then, the Ukrainian forces are smaller than the German forces at the Bulge, too.

    In the long run, greater population and production generally prevails in a war, unless the larger power has little interest in the conflict and decides to cut its losses. We’re the ones with little interest in Ukraine. The Russians seem to be almost unanimously agreed that Ukraine is in their sphere of vital interests.

    Why does Russia get to count Ukraine as in its “sphere of influence” if Ukraine doesn’t agree?

    Look at a map. The answer is the same as the “Monroe Doctrine”.

    The Monroe Doctrine didn’t assert the US right to control South American countries-it just prevented European countries from controlling South American countries. Very different from Russia getting to control any country it borders on.

    No, it’s exactly the same thing. It’s about Russia preventing NATO and the EU from controlling Ukraine.

    Also, in practice, the Monroe Doctrine has led to quite a bit of US domination and control over Central and South America.

    A good reason not to let Russia control Ukraine if Ukraine doesn’t want it, no?

    • #109
  20. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    Yes.  And we promised Russia that we wouldn’t expand NATO eastward.  Then we did, twice.  Then, in 2008, we said that we were going to expand NATO eastward a third time, to Ukraine and Georgia.  Then, when Ukraine had a pro-Russian government, we backed a pro-NATO, pro-EU coup in 2014.  That led Russia to seize Crimea, and to support the breakaway Donbas regions.

    There is no treaty agreement saying we wouldn’t let NATO expand eastward, is there?

    And the Ukrainians acted when they saw President Yanukovich carrying out a pro- Russia, anti-Ukraine coup in 2013. It’s good that we at least offered moral support. We shouldn’t support the aggressors, should we? 

     

     

    • #110
  21. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    To the OP: When you made your suggestion, and for one month afterwards, the Ukrainians had heat in their homes and reliable light and power in their cities. One month after your advice they blew up the Crimea bridge. The Russians responded in kind and Ukrainians no longer have heat, toilets that flush, nor reliable light and power.

    Expanding the war from a clash of militaries to a total war was a choice.

    Good points.

    Further, iWe, you weren’t right. I looked at your prior post again. You were calling for Ukraine to “invade” Russia, not just launch airstrikes. You specifically mentioned an attack in the direction of Belgorod.

    Your suggestion, in the present post, that the Ukrainians “leapfrog” the Russians on the ground, sounds like a terrible idea to me. How would the Ukrainians supply such forces? Have you ever studied, say, Anzio? Or Market Garden? Do you even know these references?

    What’s been happening, since your post, is that the Russians shortened their lines in the south and gained the Dnieper as a natural barrier, while accumulating forces for a slow, methodical advance from the east. They continue to advance. This, of course, is in addition to the significant damage from Russian airstrikes noted by mildlyo.

    You prior post seemed to call for something like the German Battle of the Bulge offensive, which didn’t go well for them. The current one comes across as the Germans celebrating some V-2 attacks on Britain, while the Allied armies advanced from Normandy.

    It is true, though, that the Russian forces are smaller than those assembled for Normandy, but then, the Ukrainian forces are smaller than the German forces at the Bulge, too.

    In the long run, greater population and production generally prevails in a war, unless the larger power has little interest in the conflict and decides to cut its losses. We’re the ones with little interest in Ukraine. The Russians seem to be almost unanimously agreed that Ukraine is in their sphere of vital interests.

    Why does Russia get to count Ukraine as in its “sphere of influence” if Ukraine doesn’t agree?

    Look at a map. The answer is the same as the “Monroe Doctrine”.

    The Monroe Doctrine didn’t assert the US right to control South American countries-it just prevented European countries from controlling South American countries. Very different from Russia getting to control any country it borders on.

    No, it’s exactly the same thing. It’s about Russia preventing NATO and the EU from controlling Ukraine.

    Also, in practice, the Monroe Doctrine has led to quite a bit of US domination and control over Central and South America.

    Anyone who can use the phrase “NATO domination” with a straight face hasn’t been paying attention. Last I heard, Germany still owes the alliance another armored brigade.

    • #111
  22. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    iWe (View Comment):
    frequently quite similar. Look at rival sports like Michigan/Ohio State,

    Michigan and Ohio State are not alike. 

    • #112
  23. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):
    frequently quite similar. Look at rival sports like Michigan/Ohio State,

    Michigan and Ohio State are not alike.

    Please.  If I wanted to hear about Ohio I’d be listening to Hugh Hewitt.

    • #113
  24. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    mildlyo (View Comment):

    To the OP: When you made your suggestion, and for one month afterwards, the Ukrainians had heat in their homes and reliable light and power in their cities. One month after your advice they blew up the Crimea bridge. The Russians responded in kind and Ukrainians no longer have heat, toilets that flush, nor reliable light and power.

    Expanding the war from a clash of militaries to a total war was a choice.

    Good points.

    Further, iWe, you weren’t right. I looked at your prior post again. You were calling for Ukraine to “invade” Russia, not just launch airstrikes. You specifically mentioned an attack in the direction of Belgorod.

    Your suggestion, in the present post, that the Ukrainians “leapfrog” the Russians on the ground, sounds like a terrible idea to me. How would the Ukrainians supply such forces? Have you ever studied, say, Anzio? Or Market Garden? Do you even know these references?

    What’s been happening, since your post, is that the Russians shortened their lines in the south and gained the Dnieper as a natural barrier, while accumulating forces for a slow, methodical advance from the east. They continue to advance. This, of course, is in addition to the significant damage from Russian airstrikes noted by mildlyo.

    You prior post seemed to call for something like the German Battle of the Bulge offensive, which didn’t go well for them. The current one comes across as the Germans celebrating some V-2 attacks on Britain, while the Allied armies advanced from Normandy.

    It is true, though, that the Russian forces are smaller than those assembled for Normandy, but then, the Ukrainian forces are smaller than the German forces at the Bulge, too.

    In the long run, greater population and production generally prevails in a war, unless the larger power has little interest in the conflict and decides to cut its losses. We’re the ones with little interest in Ukraine. The Russians seem to be almost unanimously agreed that Ukraine is in their sphere of vital interests.

    Why does Russia get to count Ukraine as in its “sphere of influence” if Ukraine doesn’t agree?

    Look at a map. The answer is the same as the “Monroe Doctrine”.

    The Monroe Doctrine didn’t assert the US right to control South American countries-it just prevented European countries from controlling South American countries. Very different from Russia getting to control any country it borders on.

    No, it’s exactly the same thing. It’s about Russia preventing NATO and the EU from controlling Ukraine.

    Also, in practice, the Monroe Doctrine has led to quite a bit of US domination and control over Central and South America.

    1)NATO “controlling“ Ukraine is a farcical notion. It isn’t analogous to the Warsaw Pact. 

    2) Nobody thought Ukraine was near NATO  membership until after Russia lost the Battle of Kyiv. It is simply Russian propaganda.

    • #114
  25. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    MiMac (View Comment):

    1)NATO “controlling“ Ukraine is a farcical notion. It isn’t analogous to the Warsaw Pact.

    The Cold War wasn’t faught by NATO or the Warsaw Pact – these were tools wielded by the combatants.

    So I agree with you – Ukraine isn’t controlled by NATO or the EU, it’s controlled by the US (which also controls NATO and the EU).

    2) Nobody thought Ukraine was near NATO  membership until after Russia lost the Battle of Kyiv. It is simply Russian propaganda.

    But thinking (ahem) “geostrategically” involves planning for decades, not just the next few years, and working consistently to achieve goals (in Russia’s case ensuring that Ukraine never joins NATO, in the US’ case ensuring that this at least remains a possibility if not a reality).

    • #115
  26. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Zafar (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    1)NATO “controlling“ Ukraine is a farcical notion. It isn’t analogous to the Warsaw Pact.

    The Cold War wasn’t faught by NATO or the Warsaw Pact – these were tools wielded by the combatants.

    So I agree with you – Ukraine isn’t controlled by NATO or the EU, it’s controlled by the US (which also controls NATO and the EU).

    2) Nobody thought Ukraine was near NATO membership until after Russia lost the Battle of Kyiv. It is simply Russian propaganda.

    But thinking (ahem) “geostrategically” involves planning for decades, not just the next few years, and working consistently to achieve goals (in Russia’s case ensuring that Ukraine never joins NATO, in the US’ case ensuring that this at least remains a possibility if not a reality).

    Zafar, the only reason Russia has for objecting to NATO membership for Ukraine is so they can invade again.

    • #116
  27. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Why is Russia not invading Kazakhstan?

    • #117
  28. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Why is Russia not invading Kazakhstan?

    Because Kazakhstan isn’t any more “independent” than Belorussia? 

    Oh, and the Russians are already overextended.

    • #118
  29. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Percival (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Why is Russia not invading Kazakhstan?

    Because Kazakhstan isn’t any more “independent” than Belorussia?

    That’s right.

    Oh, and the Russians are already overextended.

    They sure are.  But we might be too.

    • #119
  30. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Percival (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Why is Russia not invading Kazakhstan?

    Because Kazakhstan isn’t any more “independent” than Belorussia?

    Oh, and the Russians are already overextended.

    It might be a little more independent than Belorussia. At least it is making some symbolic moves in that direction, even as Russia has been trying to exert greater control over it.

    But Ukraine really is a special case for Russia.  For some reason Russia can’t stand another eastern Slav country that isn’t under their thumb.  Also, it’s Ukraine’s history that Russians have stolen for themselves, not Kazhakstan’s.  If they can control Ukraine and eliminate any sense of separate cultural and national identity in Ukraine, then they don’t have a rival inheritor of that history. Otherwise they will have to go back to seeing themselves as still living in the Moscow swamp and mud when Ukraine was already an established and advanced society (relatively speaking).

    • #120
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