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Ukraine Taking My Advice
When the Russians were pushed from Kharkiv back in September, I wrote an unpopular post advocating that Ukraine attack inside Russia. Here it is.
I just wanted to point out that Ukraine is now routinely doing this with the drones they have — Sunday night they hit a major Russian air base (Engels) some 300 km from the Ukrainian border. They are following Sun-Tzu: attack where the enemy is not defending. Leapfrog the guys on the ground, and make Russia pay where they are not expecting an attack. This is the way to force Putin to sue for peace. Ukraine should keep doing it with every tool available. The end of evil dictators is something we should very much desire.
I went back and read the comments. The things predicted by the naysayers on that post (loss of Western support, Russia escalating to nukes, etc.) have all NOT happened. Admittedly, I advocated attacking on the ground (not realizing Ukraine had the aerial reach to pull off these attacks), but the principle remains. And so does the result.
Sometimes, a guy just has to point out when he wuz right.
Published in General
Actually, they guaranteed their independence-but Russia has never lived by its agreements, except the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement. FYI, the treaty that started WW2.
When are we invading China? A million Uighurs demand your outrage.
It’s good that Ukraine is finally able to put an end to that notion, which actually goes back to 1654 to the Pereyaslav Agreement. Bohdan Khmelnytsky entered his Ukrainian-Cossack state into an alliance with Russia against the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and ever since Russia has claimed that alliance was for keeps, even when it didn’t live up to its end of the agreement.
YouTuber “Operator Starsky” (a Ukrainian “information warfare specialist” who has admitted he is on active duty when he does YouTube) says Khmelnytsky made that agreement when he was drunk, and then sobered up. I think he made that up. Starsky claims to have made up a lot of the nonsense that Russians believe on the internet, such as the one about Combat Mosquitoes. He thinks Russians on the internet are as gullible as are the Ricochet people who believe Russian propaganda. (He doesn’t say it that way. I do. I think some of the good-hearted, American, pro-Ukraine YouTubers don’t quite grok what his role is, though.)
Have any of those Uighurs said they need ammo, not a ride?
Did we invade Ukraine? Did I suggest we do so?
I am plenty outraged about China. Show me a practical way to reform China, and I’ll back it. I have advocated welcoming every qualified Hong Kong citizen to the US. A brain drain will sap China’s strength and capabilities.
My proposals for North Korea include “invading” it by air dropping the South Korean equivalent of People magazine, and chocolate bars. Iran would fold if we air-dropped handguns and ammunition over every population center. Could be done by private contractors working on a per-delivery reward.
None of these risk American lives and serve our national interests. And they are much, much cheaper than war.
FP-45 Liberator. Inexpensive, stamped metal, single-shot* .45 pistol. The plan was to drop them into drop them into occupied Europe just before D-Day. The anticipated tactic was to get up close to a German soldier and take his gun once the soldier no longer needed it. None were used, or even to anyone’s knowledge recovered by any civilians. The Germans found a crate of them in a field and wet their pants when they opened it up though. From that point on, every German patrol had in the back of his mind that any civilian walking down the street might be packing heat. As a weapon, a failure. As a psyop . . . it probably had a feldwebel or two pirouetting every time someone stepped out of a doorway.
* Included with each one was an instruction sheet showing the procedure for loading/reloading it. You’d need a dowel rod, a screwdriver, or a stick to clear the spent brass (not included).
We should help them after they destroy over 1500 Chinese tanks-like the Ukrainians have done to the Russians. Ukraine has shown it can fight & win when given aid.
Graft opportunities are like a box of Kleen-ex. You use one and discard it and another pops up in its place.
It would be good to help Ukraine demonstrate to China that bad things happen when a larger country invades a smaller neighbor, especially if the two countries share some elements of culture and language.
I am here to speak unpopular truths.
The Russians have likely raised an army close to a million men.
They are preparing for an offensive that will crush Ukraine.
Zelensky and those around him will be at best fled to Miami this time next year to enjoy the billions they stole from the US and Urkraine. At worst they will be put up against a wall and shot.
A country of 40 million doesnt go up against a country of 200 million on their border and wins.
I know this is unpopular on this site. But remember everyone telling Ukriane is winning, told you that Covid was real, Tump conspired with the Russians and that Afghanistan was pure as the driven snow.
Have fun.
Merkel has already confirmed that Mink was a lie and the West had no intention of living up to the promises. That it was all a lied sold to Russia. Which now we know justifies the Russian war narrative. We lied and they know we lied. Were on the side of Nazis.
My great uncle died fighting Nazis on a beach in France.
This sounds like blaming the rape victim for being strangled because she scratched her attacker’s face and made him even angrier. Russia would have targeted the population if Ukraine hadn’t committed the sin of striking a strategic target outside of their current borders; it’s what they do. Crush a foe’s will by putting them in the dark and cold and killing their children. It seems the Ukes hit a bomber base inside Russian lines; does that mean Russia should respond with a few barrel bombs in a hospital?
So which story are the NATO triumphalists going with? Are the Ukrainians plucky freedom fighters smacking about a tottering drunk of a Russian bear, or are they rape victims?
All wars eventually end. When this one is mercifully over we can examine the Russian claims on how it started. If the Russian invasion froze in place the Ukrainian invasion of Donbas that started a few days prior there will be evidence and living memory.
The claim that one more empty statement from our state department set them off never added up to me.
Maybe try true truths first?
How’d that work out for the Soviets in Afghanistan?
Um, no. You mis-spelled “Putin”. See also, Nawalny, Alexei. Oh, and cash that check from the Ruskies before their currency is de-valued. Haha. See, that door swings both ways.
Well, it’s more like demonstrating what a smaller determined force can do with US military technology. But the point is the same: Deter China by showing that we are capable of putting our thumb on the scales of remote conflicts without having to deploy our own military.
Actual pro-Ukraine opinion on Ricochet?
It sure wasn’t this way a few months ago.
One the most important military tactics — kick your opponent when he’s down.
I think Ukraine needs to attack as many important non-populated military, transportation, and energy targets as possible. I wonder what the supply line is between Iran and Russia. Do the Iranian drones arrive by a certain road or at a certain airport?
However, if too many Russians people, soldiers or non-combatants, are killed within the borders of Russia, there is the potential that the Russian people could become very enthusiastic about supporting the war.
Someone does need to shame the countries not along the Baltic Sea to do a lot more.
Spoken like a true Russophobe.
Moderator Note:
Personal attacks are a violation of our Code of Conduct.Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):Hang On (View Comment):iWe: The end of evil dictators is something we should very much desire.Define ‘evil dictator’?
Someone who bans a major religion in his country, confiscates church property, and imprisons priests?
Someone who jails his main political opponent?
Someone who bans all independent press?
Someone who maintains secret police?
Someone who maintains a death list for those who criticize his government and do not slavishly adhere to his propaganda?
Someone whose military forces admire and adulate Bandera, whose forces sent Ukrainian Jews to the gas chambers?
Like that?
That would be Zelensky and Ukraine.Um, no. You mis-spelled “Putin”. See also, Nawalny, Alexei. Oh, and cash that check from the Ruskies before their currency is de-valued. Haha. See, that door swings both ways. [Redacted]
[Redacted]
None of us can predict the future. This war might go on for a very, very long time.
I always kind of assumed that it would essentially go on in some form forever while Putin is still alive.
That might be my best guess.
And what is the country with 200 million people?
Russia population, September 2022: 145,100,000 (including Crimea)
> I don’t think Russia has ever had a population of more than 148.5 million.
Ukraine population, February 2022: 41,130,432 (excluding Crimea) Of course, who knows what it is today.
(I know someone who is in Crimea right now. The situation there might be more pro-Ukrainian that some people think.)
The military ratio is probably slightly better due to foreign fighters and a certain amount of Ukrainian women who have been willing to join the military as medics, drivers, and non-combatants, if nothing else.
I just find it very difficult to believe that the West, especially Eastern Europe, will just allow Russia to take over Ukraine.
…
You’re a wargamer. I sometimes read @HerrDr8 on twitter. He is also a wargame designer. His most important wargame was the extremely-detailed 2005 Triumph of Chaos about the Russian Civil War. One could say that he is biased as I think he has a Ukrainian wife, but his stats are sometimes encouraging.
I think Iraq in 1991 was one of the few countries to lose as many tanks as Russia has lost this year. It looks like 20,000 to 50,000 Iraqi soldiers were killed in that war. I think Russia might have lost 2 to 5 times as many just this year.
Here’s the chart I was trying to find…
Here’s one. You have been predicting the imminent Ukrainian demise since the war started. You have been wrong, consistently, time and time and time again. And you have claimed special authority as an “expert” while doing so. You have given historians a bad name.
If you want to predict that this time your predictions will come true, then have the cojones to admit that you have gotten it dead wrong until now.
Reported by whom?
This kind of statement is silly – since clearly many people on this site (myself included) know Ukraine is winning – but have not fallen for the nonsense you cite.
By way of contrast, here are some predictions I made:
2 April
10 April:
People scoffed. Erroneously.
Rival countries and cities are frequently quite similar. Look at rival sports like Michigan/Ohio State, or Auburn/Alabama. Just because they look the same to outsiders does not mean they choose to be on the same side.
And as an outsider, why would you care to participate? You are making my point.
If Ohio State sent an invading army to Michigan to kill the Michigan team, I would happily support the autonomy of the invaded team.
By God.
Here are the latest figures…