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Are We the Baddies, Part 2: US Meddling in Ukraine and Crimea
I’ve been holding out on you since September when this issue of Hillsdale’s Imprimis came out: Complications of the Ukraine War, by Christopher Caldwell, senior fellow at the Claremont Institute. Now that I have time to clear out my tabs, you get to learn what I did back then.
If you had to give a one-word answer to what this Ukraine War is about, you would probably say Crimea. Crimea is a peninsula jutting out into the middle of the Black Sea. It’s where the great powers of Europe fought the bloodiest war of the century between Napoleon and World War I. It is a defensive superweapon. The country that controls it dominates the Black Sea and can project its military force into Europe, the Middle East, and even the steppes of Eurasia. And since the 1700s, that country has been Russia. Crimea has been the home of Russia’s warm water fleet for 250 years. It is the key to Russia’s southern defenses.
I admit, I’m not following events in Ukraine as closely as many here on Ricochet. But, as I understand it, Ukraine is committed to fighting not just to repel the Russian invasion, but to recover Crimea. This is a solid guarantee for the prolongation of the war indefinitely. Russia simply cannot — will not — let go of the all-important strategic peninsula of Crimea.
Much of the turmoil began under the Bush 43 administration — surprise! — with US election interference, and exacerbated by the Obama administration — surprise, surprise!! — by meddling in the trade deal negotiated between Ukraine and the EU, and vehemently opposed by Russia.
The previous year (2013), Ukrainian diplomats had negotiated a free trade deal with the European Union that would have cut out Russia. Russia then outbid the EU with its own deal—which included $15 billion in incentives for Ukraine and continued naval basing rights for Russia—and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich signed it. U.S.-backed protests broke out in Kiev’s main square, the Maidan, and in cities across the country. According to a speech made at the time by a State Department official, the U.S. had by that time spent $5 billion to influence Ukraine’s politics. And, considering that Ukraine then had a lower per capita income than Cuba, Jamaica, or Namibia, $5 billion could buy a lot of influence. An armory was raided, shootings near the Maidan left dozens of protesters dead, Yanukovich fled the country, and the U.S. played the central role in setting up a successor government.
The other tidbit that stands out in this piece is this:
In a referendum in January 1991, 93 percent of the citizens of Crimea voted for autonomy from Ukraine. In 1994, 83 percent voted for the establishment of a dual Crimean/Russian citizenship. We’ll leave aside the referendum held after the Russians arrived in 2014, which resulted in a similar percentage but remains controversial.
As long as Ukraine insists on controlling Crimea and even the Russophilic eastern Ukraine, I don’t see a possible resolution to the conflict. I oppose another (Bush) forever war and believe if the US meddles further, it should be to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. For its own sake, as well as ours.
Published in General
It empowers the 70+% of Ukrainians who want to drive Russia out of all the former Ukrainian territory.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-new-poll-89-of-ukrainians-reject-ceding-land-to-reach-peace-with-russia-11656504002
If the other 30% live on 30% of the land wouldn’t it make sense to….
Yes, deport them to land-rich, underpopulated Russia.
Elections have consequences-you are always free to emigrate (unless you are in Russia). Between 70-89% of Ukrainians want victory rather than concessions.
There are invaders in country, and as many as 30% are against fighting? Doesn’t that indicate that this isn’t as simple or clear as is being made out to be? Certainly the various referendums about some sections separating from Ukraine should indicate that. Yes, agression is usually wrong and is very likely wrong here too.
But how wrong? Lebensraum reich-building wrong? Or more like Kashmir wrong? World mobilizing wrong, or good luck I hope it works our for you wrong?
Putin should not have invaded Ukraine in 2014 and he should not have expanded his invasion in 2022.
How wrong was Putin’s decision? Very, very wrong. All of this bloodshed and destruction could have been avoided had Putin not invaded Ukraine in 2014 and in 2022.
Arguably, all this bloodshed and destruction could have been avoided if the U.S. hadn’t been screwing around in Ukraine for the last couple decades.
But hey, the neocons got the war they wanted after their 20-year adventure in Afghanistan was shut down (clumsily).
Hooray for the military-industrial grifting project: the only sure bet in this crazy world.
You have misunderstood the poll- it isn’t that 30% are against resisting the Russians. The 30% would support concessions to achieve peace (ie letting Russia keep some territory). No doubt that 30% greatly varies in how much they are willing to cede to Russia.
The polls clearly indicate the vast majority of Ukrainians support victory-ie expulsion of the Russians-between 70-89%. The remainder would agree to trade some I’ll defined amount “ land for peace”.
The war could only have been avoided by Putin not starting it.
^ This is simplistic. ^
“The truth is simple. If it was complicated, everyone would understand it.” Walt Whitman
You still refuse to even acknowledge our long history of screwing around in Ukraine.
No actually I haven’t misunderstood, you just dont like my characterization of it. 30% would rather concede than fight. For whatever reasons.
Back when the Russians were laying siege to a city as close to Kiev as Indianapolis is as close to Chicago, there were hours long lines in Kiev to buy commemorative stamps. Not to enlist, receive a rifle, and immediately drive to the besieged city. Gag stamps to own Putin. Oh yes, they all have a burning desire to expel the invaders, and the US has a moral imperative to pay for it in perpetuity. The morality lines are all crystal clear, apparently.
The devil is in the details- many of those willing to trade land for peace would never agree to the amount of land Putin will agree to in a settlement.
Poppycock-the Ukrainians clearly rallied to defend their homeland-the results are indisputable. The Thousands of Russian vehicles lying destroyed around Ukraine, while themselves silent, tell the story loud& clear.
Maybe, but you’re a champion shifter of goal posts.
Yes war involves blown out vehicles from both sides. This is more goalpost shifting, though, with an appeal to emotion for good measure.
Despite the certainty you seem to have, I’m uncertain of many things. It’s not at all clear that the separatist elements in the east were fake. It’s not at all clear that suppressing them was just. It’s not at all clear that Russia engineered them or was using them as pretext. It’s not at all clear that Russia has no rational interest involved. It’s not at all clear that the US has vital national interest involved here in any greater measure than we do in any conflict involving an unjust aggressor. It’s not at all clear why the US should be the primary supplier of arms, supplies, and money when very rich first world nations right next door aren’t supplying nearly as much. It’s not at all clear that we can continue this plan without dangerous escalation or that such a risk would even be worth it for us.
Balderdash-I have always supported Ukrainian victory & refuse to accept Russian propaganda
The problem is anything you don’t like hearing you call “Russian Propaganda.”
Obviously you think nothing is clear-awaiting clarity in your case would’ve conceded defeat. And we would clearly be in a much worse world.
And the posts shift again. Someone references how our aid empowers one group of Ukrainians and disempowered another group, you reference a poll to support your assertion that Ukrainians are united in wanting victory and the rest can leave, I mention that the poll hardly illustrates unity, you respond that the people who want to negotiate would never agree to the amount that Putin will insist on, and now you’re talking about how you have always supported Ukrainian total victory as if that has anything to do with anything were discussing. Whether you support Ukraine expelling all Russians is not under question.
As I said, you’re a champion shifter of goal posts, and I’ll add that you’re also a first rate muddier of waters.
This has been a hot issue for at least a decade. Yes, I dont think that very much is clear. What is propaganda and what is truth? What is in whose best interest? It’s all complicated with propaganda from all directions. Is this a Chamberlain moment? Can Russia become another Nazi Germany? Does it have those ambitions? If yes, if this is the time to draw a real red line then why are we messing around with proxies? What are we willing to do and why not just do them already? If we’re not willing to go all the way, then what are we doing and how do we prevent a slide down the slippery slope?
If the waters are muddy, pointing out that they’re muddy isn’t what made them muddy.
Never shifted my goals-I just refuse to accept you characterization of the Ukrainian political situation. You think 11-30% is sufficient enough to alter the will of the majority, but 70%+ support in a modern democracy is a huge mandate. Additionally, it is clear the minority doesn’t have a unified position- ie how much territory to relinquish in return for peace. Furthermore, any deal with Putin isn’t worth the paper is is written on- if not defeated any treaty will just be a short armistice before he attacks again. He has violated the Budapest Memorandum and every Minsk Treaty- all the while blaming everyone else for his transgressions .
As far as I can tell, there is only propaganda where this issue is concerned. Russian propaganda, Ukraininan propaganda, US propaganda, and probably other propaganda too. What is the truth of any of it? Dont ask, Putin stooge!
I’m not sure why you’re saying that, but ok as far as it goes. I’m saying that Mimac muddies the water of most discussions he’s involved in.
I never said anything about altering the will of the majority. I think I’m going to add you to my “skip it” list. From covid to Ukraine it seems like all exchanges with you go something like this, and it’s just not worth it.
Putin shill!!!!
Lay out the evidence and tell me. What “screwing around” caused a war? And don’t give me business ventures with corrupt elements of their government.