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3 Weeks from the Midterms, the Issues Are Breaking the GOP’s Way
The recent Harvard-Harris poll demonstrates the state of the midterms in three charts.
Price Increases/Inflation, Economy/Jobs, and Immigration are the three top issues for voters nationwide.
What issues do voters think Republican candidates are focused on? Immigration, Price Increases/Inflation, and Economy/Jobs. Exactly in line with voters’ concerns.
And what do they think Democrats are focused on? January 6, Women’s Rights, and Climate Change.
Ranking the issues voters care about, January 6 ranks 19th. Women’s Rights is 5th. Climate is 8th.
This is certainly true in the ad mix I’ve seen here in Arizona. The vast majority of ads promote Democrats, be they running for Governor, U.S. Senator, or the State Legislature. The spots are all-abortion, all the time. The only other messages are a few on Jan. 6, and Sen. Mark Kelly telling me he’s an astronaut — again.
Please note that most ads I’ve seen are on YouTube, apparently microtargeting me — a middle-aged married male with kids. Of all the issues my cohort votes on, protecting abortions at eight months and 29 days, are a non-starter. Also, about 10 percent of the ads are Spanish language; “Yo garantizo mas abortos! Soy un astronauta!”
Onda Roja is Spanish for “Red Wave.”
Published in General
We will see. Even if it happens, will they do anything with it?
J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan were debating tonight in Youngstown. Here’s a pre-debate rally for Ryan:
For you non-Buckeyes, Youngstown was built on coal, steel and the corruption of the Democratic Party. Coal and steel are dead and the Democratic Party isn’t feeling too good, either. Vance and Trump drew about 5,500 to the minor league hockey arena in town last month.
Bob Costa, who used to write for National Review and now toils at CBS parachuted in to support Ryan. He tweeted out that the candidates were wooing “Rob Portman Republicans” and linked an Op-Ed endorsing Ryan by John Bridgeman, calling him Portman’s former Chief of Staff.
Technically, that’s true. He was Portman’s COS in the House – 20 years ago. He’s a career Republican hanger-on and a life-long Virginian who probably couldn’t find find Youngstown on a map if his life depended on it. Moreover, I don’t know anyone other than, say Peter Robinson, would call themselves a “Rob Portman Republican,” and Peter doesn’t live in Ohio, either. Maybe Costa still believes that Bridgeman’s presence in the George W. Bush White House means something to the Ohioan who’s dropping $100 a week into his gas tank and $300 a week at the grocery store. Maybe he thinks Portman, who found his inner bi-partisan voice after announcing his retirement, holds a magical place in the hearts of us Buckeyes. It’s hard to find magic in bloated “infrastructure” bills that’s been instrumental in fueling inflation that’s reduced most pensioners’ 401Ks by 25% or more.
Jon, you are an amazing guy with an amazing podcast and great taste in music, but you are burying the lede. That same poll showed that President Donald J. Trump is the most popular politician in America. Big league! 47% is nice. The number 47 is very nice (wink wink).
With such an exhaustive list of concerns, what the heck falls into the 2% Other?
Alien (extraterrestrial, not border jumpers) abductions?
Designated Hitter rule?
Star Trek vs. Star Wars?
We could have avoided all of this if suburban wine moms had simply held there nose and voted Trump in 2020, or if the election wasn’t rife with fraud, or both.
In this picture the lettering is really small, but the comparison between the portion of the top 3 issues and the top 10 issues between the two parties seems to favor the R’s. R’s have all of top 3 and 7 of the top 10. D’s have one of the top 3 and 4 of the top 10. And to no one’s surprise, D’s have Jan. 6 as #1 and voter have it 2/3 of the way down.
Where on the lists is the importance of the Hunter Biden evidence that the FBI has that implicates his father in his Family’s selling of favors business?
Ryan has been fairly successful in avoiding any mention of his association with the mobbed-up James Traficant. I think he probably learned a great deal from him.
A change? A fresh face?! Are you kidding me Tim Ryan?! You were Traficant’s Staff Assistant! And Youngstown is the mob.
http://old.post-gazette.com/localnews/20021111newsmakerreg5p5.asp
He’s been fairly successful in avoiding any mention of his association with Democrats in general.
BEAM ME UP!
I am having no end of fun taking polls every single day, indicating strong disapproval of all the D politicians I am asked about, and Rah-Rah for Trump. I am also asked to rate the believability of both sides’ ads in my state, and every single point in every one of Patty Murray’s ads, either spoken by herself or surrogates, is a lie. It’s quite remarkable how in no way can a DemocRat speak the truth about what they have been doing and funding. And I can tell when they are editing Tiffany Smiley’s statements, too, trying to make her look bad. Sorry, it’s not working.
If Republicans can’t win under these conditions, then we might as well give up. I hope and pray we do well.
Eloquence and hairdos such as this seldom come along…
Rasmussen (and probably others) ask a right track/wrong track question. When 65 percent and more answer wrong track…well, history only needs to repeat itself with the out party gaining seats at mid-term. I see no reason why it shouldn’t.
Why must the GOP commence self-flagellation so early?
With a mandate that strong to act on immigration I can only imagine what a resurgent GOP legislature will do. Why, last time…
Oh.
Sounds good. Except my lib friends are going to vote out the fascist GOP with the blazing passion of a million dying suns. Costs are up and war is on the horizon and it is the GOP fault.
That is the problem. Lots of good intentions, taking the campaign talk as honestly reflecting the convictions of the R candidates, but no or little real action once in office.
Glass is forever half empty brother. Allow yourself to enjoy good news occasionally. :)
Just going on past experiences.
Still, I suppose, if the Tide can roll out …
If Republicans can’t win under these conditions, I will be further convinced Democrats have perfected the cheat.
Why are policing and civil disobedience so low on the list? My gut agrees with Cahaly at Trafalgar is that there a lot of conservative folks who do not trust and or respond to pollsters. I think there will be a bigger red wave than is indicated.
Clearly, the polls are meaningless because there is no separate “transgender rights” category and/or freeing minors from parental control in general. White liberal Democrats would have been compelled to put all things trans to the top of the list if asked (you never know who is listening).
Also shouldn’t the pollsters give respondents the chance to further differentiate “concerns” about crime? Again, white liberal Democrats should be allowed to acknowledge that they are pro-crime, not just “concerned.”
A polling AI could skip a lot of questions. For example, if the respondent answered “Yes” to “Do you think Hurricane Ian was caused by climate change?” the Ai could just fill in the kneejerk lefty responses for the next 20 questions.
Since most Republican leaders say there was little or no cheating in the last election, we seem to believe that there will be no cheating this time and next. If it’s not stolen it will be a miracle, and if it is stolen, what will we do about it? Complain for a week or so and then cave in? Do we not believe the Chinese will use it to finish us? Even if they don’t do we believe that our massive complex economy can be run by anyone from the top, let alone these clowns. Do folks not understand what will happen to the United States in their hands?
It’s hard to figure how meaningful these types of polls are. There are a lot of ways to manipulate the results — whether intentionally or accidentally. For example, how are responders distinguishing between “Price increases/Inflation” vs. “Economy/ Jobs” vs. “National Debt/Federal Budget Deficits”? How are they distinguishing between “Crime and Drugs” vs. “Guns” vs. “Criminal Justice” vs. “Policing” vs. “Civil Disorder”? Or between “Women’s Rights” and “Health Care.” (I can imagine a lot of Democrats equating both issues with “Abortion”, which would make “Abortion” the second highest priority overall.) How are responders parsing the difference between “Terrorism”, “National Security”, “Foreign Policy”, and “Defense”?
We all have our own answers to these distinctions, so we don’t know. And that’s just one possible reason to be skeptical of these polls.
One would have thought that the mob could buy him a better rug than this.
Costa has been a big disappointment since he left NR. Perhaps he changed or perhaps I was fooled when he was at NR. Sat with him and his dad for lunch one day on a cruise and they seemed nice enough then. I gave up reading his stuff some time ago.
Not surprising. Even in Florida, DeSantis is in a tight race. Only those who pay attention to politics pay that much attention to him. DeSantis might be the future but needs to grow more.
No matter what they don’t do with a win, having the Republicans in charge of Congress would still be exponentially better than having the Democrats in charge.
From Wikipedia: “Costa has not identified his political views publicly, saying only that he’s not on the “conservative team.” What else did one expect from a former NR editor?