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Ukraine: What’s Happening, What Might Be Next
This post is intended to be descriptive, rather than prescriptive, as for instance BDB’s poll on support for weapons/troops for Ukraine.
What’s Happened
The MSM has been saturated with news of a hurricane that might be blamed on Republicans somehow, and a pipeline explosion that might be blamed on anyone, or sheer incompetence, depending on your favorite theory. So the operational details of what’s been happening in Ukraine after the big breakthrough East of Kharkiv may have disappeared unless you’ve been specifically tracking them (I have). So, a quick recap of the last couple of weeks:
Ukraine went into a short operational pause in the Kharkiv / north Luhansk area, presumably to resupply and reorganize.
Russia kept banging away on the Donetsk front, making little progress and continuing to lose troops and equipment.
Ukraine kept banging away in the Kherson area west of Dnipro, also making little apparent progress and expending a lot of HIMARS and other ammo blowing up bridges and Russian supply dumps and headquarters.
Things started moving quickly again last week. In the northeast, the Ukrainians managed to surround the town of Lyman, a rail and road hub. There were between 500 and 5,000 Russians and proxy troops trapped there, depending on who you believe. Some or most of the Russians may have made it out, losing a lot of equipment. The final retreat, mostly by LPR proxy troops, apparently became a slaughter by Ukrainian artillery, mines, and light recon forces. There’s plenty of video evidence of the latter out there, don’t go looking unless you’re ready for it. I’ll drop a link to a text-only report by an American volunteer in one of the recon teams, but you still don’t want to read it near meal or bedtime.
After the Lyman episode, the Russian front north of there is being pushed back daily. Some of this may be planned/controlled withdrawal, some seems to be a collapse. The Ukrainians now appear to control the important road between the towns of Svatove and Kreminna in Luhansk oblast.
Over the weekend, the Kherson front suddenly erupted. The Ukrainians punched in between several towns in the northeast of the oblast, west of a large reservoir on Dnipro, and have pushed the Russians back some tens of kilometers. The advance appears to be continuing. As of today, the Russians abandoned another portion of that front (Davydiv Brid) to avoid a possible envelopment. Again, this appears to be some combination of collapse and planned withdrawal.
Both of these fronts are moving daily, best followed in real time. A sampling of reporting sites: Most speculative, kinda conservative, really conservative. These are all more-or-less the Ukrainian view. For Russian side reports, try here.
Some of the ‘mobiks’ from the chaotic Russian mobilization have appeared at the front. Mobik prisoners have been taken, and the dead recovered. There are video reports and call intercepts reporting mobiks being dropped off along the front with little or no supplies or communications.
What Might Happen
A pattern of Ukrainian operations is emerging. They are pushing recon/sabotage teams in between Russian-occupied towns and strongpoints, followed by light mechanized forces heavily armed with anti-armor weapons and backed with artillery and rocket fire. These threaten to envelop a major position, leading the Russians to fall back to protect their flanks, or potentially become surrounded. For what it looks like from the POV of the scouts, this series of reports from the same volunteer I linked above gives a sample.
The UA is managing this because the Russians can no longer man a continuous line at the front. This implies that the larger numbers of casualty reports for Russia are credible. It’s also visible that some of Russia’s most elite formations have been shredded (‘heavily degraded’ is apparently the term of art) in the process. It also makes some ‘sense’ of the reports of untrained mobiks being dropped off with little support along the front. These poor [CoC] are being used as human trip wires to slow down the penetration by Ukrainian scouts and light forces.
The Russians left the mobilization too late to assemble a credible, trained, and equipped reserve force. They are being used as cannon fodder to delay Ukraine. Local Russian reserves have apparently been committed and defeated in Kharkiv/Luhansk and Kherson. This suggests Ukraine can continue to advance.
On the other hand, the fall mud season (rasputitsa) is beginning, which will slow everything down. Recent videos have shown muddy but still firm secondary roads in the north (Kharkiv/Luhansk), but there’s been enough rain that it’s likely armor would now bog down off-road. Roads in the south (Kherson) appear to be dry still.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Ukrainian attempt to punch much deeper into Luhansk, probably towards the key logistics center of Starobilsk, before the mud really sets in.
There are recurrent rumors of Ukraine preparing a third offensive, this one to punch South towards Melitopol and then Crimea. I haven’t seen any actual evidence of such, including from those who are buying up satellite photos. And it’s just what I’d spread around if I were the Ukrainians, to convince the Russians to keep reserves there while the other fronts collapse. But I could be wrong…
Published in Foreign Policy
Much stronger, actually. Some weeks ago there was a study done on the two nations’ propaganda games, and Ukraine is totally winning at that. It’s probably back in one of these threads here, but Ricochet’s search engine will never help me find it again.
And did you know that that woman who headed up Biden’s short-lived Ministry of Truth worked for Ukraine as a propagandist? She was part of a group working to cover up certain uncomfortable facts about Ukraine’s Nazi Battalions and their actions against their own people.
Latest on the Kerch Bridge situation:
Repairs have already begun. Car and van traffic is already flowing in both directions, one lane each way for now. Semis and other heavy vehicles are using ferries for the time being. The rail part of the bridge was not damaged in any impactful way, so the transport of tanks and other needed equipment/supplies will resume by Monday at the latest. Here’s a short clip of the current situation:
My sister called me last night and said there is a worldwide prayer vigil for the end of the conflict soon and peacefully. Here is further opinion:
https://www.crisismagazine.com/2022/understanding-the-roots-of-the-ukraine-russia-conflict
Yes, the declarative says that. It’s moral propaganda. Good quality moral propaganda.
You’re in the 20% of a given population that has this trait.
Didn’t know that. Still don’t know it.
I didn’t cite polling to justify US actions.
I did cite polling to share polling data.
There is a difference.
If one thinks that dictatorship is morally equivalent to representative government, then I can understand why one would think that there isn’t a significant difference between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US invasion of Iraq.
If one doesn’t place any value at all on representative government compared to dicatorship, one could still view both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US invasion of Iraq as immoral.
You do now because I told you. You could also look it up yourself.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/meet-the-head-of-bidens-new-disinformation-governing-board/
https://www.newsweek.com/who-nina-jankowicz-head-joe-biden-disinformation-governance-board-1701677
https://georgeeliason.substack.com/p/is-nina-jankowicz-still-working-for
https://www.conservapedia.com/Nina_Jankowicz
Good heavens.
I think Ukraine’s GDP is not quite 200 billion.
I suppose that depends on whether we are talking about law or morality.
While law is socially constructed and varies based on time and place, what is morally right and what is morally wrong is considered by some people to based something independent of what people believe about morality, even an ideal observer of morality.
So, one could argue that the principle of freedom of speech is good even if no one is advocating for freedom of speech, slavery is wrong even if no one is arguing that slavery is wrong.
A moral skeptic disagrees with this, thinking that either morality doesn’t exist at all or that morality is socially constructed or that morality is whatever an individual happens to think is moral.
It’s not clear that Zelensky is demanding much more money than Ukraine actually needs.
Ukraine’s economy has been devastated by Russia’s invasion. The number of homes that Putin has demolished is enormous.
No, it’s perfectly clear. I was off about the factor of 10, though.
Because he ran on a platform of making peace with Russia, whatever it took – ie implement Minsk II.
He. Lied. He clearly serves another master. That is not representation.
It’s a double standard, or rather pretzeling to find some sort of a moral justification when we do it.
The estimates of what it will take to repair the Ukrainian economy is enormous. The money that the US and Europe is giving Ukraine is helpful, but it isn’t enough to elevate Ukraine’s economy back to where it was in January of this year.
I’m not even convinced that you know it but I’ll check out your links when I can.
Lying politicians is part and parcel of representative government. Politicians quite often run on a campaign platform that, once in office, do not fulfill, for one reason or another.
Ukraine does have representative government, including the Donbas region.
Don’t care. America first.
The standard could be one of two things:
[1] Representative government provides significant moral goods that dictatorship does not provide. Therefore, the difference between a nation with dictatorship (Putin’s Russia) invading a nation with representative government (Ukraine) is different in a morally significant way than a nation with representative government (the USA) invading a nation with dictatorship (Saddam Hussain’s Iraq).
[2] All invasions of one country against another country are immoral.
Neither [1] or [2] represent a double-standard.
Must you always be a jerk and treat me like [REDACTED]?
Yes, I guess you must.
I agree
America first. Help Ukraine as best we can.
The discussion wasn’t about whether you care or don’t care. It was about whether the money Ukraine is asking for is more than what Ukraine “needs.” Of course, the word “needs” has a subjective quality. But clearly, Ukraine’s economy was damaged badly by Putin’s war against Ukraine. Thus, Zelenksy has asked Europe and the US and Japan and other nations for assistance and the result is that Europe, the US and Japan and other nations have provided assistance.
You might want to examine how you’re treating people with the stuff you’re asking them to believe.
So the US is to provide money it doesn’t have to Ukraine for the perverse reasons of neocons and neoliberals. It’s worked out so well.
Britain is already circling the drain. Germany will too and drag most of Europe down as it deindustrializes. But, most importantly, we all stand together as we commit suicide. Anything and everything for the lie that this is democracy vs autocracy.
Only if that representation is substantive. Otherwise it’s just window dressing.
You keep repeating that Ukraine is a democracy. If the president doesn’t represent the people’s interests but rather serves other master then how is that substantive representation rather than a potemkin village? Is it providing a significant moral good, or is it a fraud?
It’s propaganda. The US is prosecuting this for other – and imo substantial – reasons.
If it’s any comfort, he treats everybody like that :-)
Representative government is a process. There is a debate over public policy issues. There are competing candidates for public office. The voters vote. Some candidates win and others lose. Some public policy ideas are adopted, others rejected.
There is no guarantee that any particular candidate for public office will, upon being elected, fulfill his or her campaign promises.
That’s what I think representative government is. You are talking about some additional “good things” that might happen or might not happen while representative government is operating.
If the voters elect a candidate to public office and that politician disappoints them, they are likely to elect a different candidate for public office in the next election.
So, representative government doesn’t exist only when every politician acts in a perfectly moral way. Representative government exists when the process is in place where the voters can give their judgements on which candidates they will vote for.